In fact the first symptomatic case in Wuhan was identified on Dec 1, and by Jan 16 there were 41 cases of pneumonia identified. That is about the same span of

In fact the first symptomatic case in Wuhan was identified on Dec 1, and by Jan 16 there were 41 cases of pneumonia identified. That is about the same span of time as between the end of winter break and today. And Wuhan is a dense city of 11 million while I live in a relatively sprawling American city of < 2 million with essentially nonexistent public transit, so transmission could be slower. Alos, I don't know what typical air quality is like in Wuhan in the winter, but given what I've heard about Chinese cities, more severe impact of respiratory symptoms in China seems plausible too. In any case, I agree that there's a fair amount of uncertainty, but a verdict of "certainly not" seems unwarranted.