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In Qoom nothing has been done. The Iraniam government refuses to take even the most basic control measures.

by wbl 7y ago

arcticbull 7y ago
It also has a 0.7% case fatality rate in China (and 0.6% outside) on par with H1N1 at 0.45%. Nothing really needs to be done -- this time. The situation would be far, far worse with a disease that actually killed a lot of healthy individuals.
- blagie 7y ago
  Worldwide, there were 2,979 deaths and 42,576 recovered. That math suggests you might have an extra decimal point there. There are many ways to do the math, but 0.7% is not really a sensible number to work from. General consensus hovers at 2-3%. Aside from that, a much larger (as of yet unknown) number have permanent lung scarring. That's not a joke. Read about SARS and MERS long-term prognosis from similar scarring.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    That's unfortunately a common misunderstanding of how CFR or case fatality rate works. It begins huge as only the most serious cases are identified as nCoV and it falls as the long tail comes into view. Over the last few days, we've seen thousands of recoveries and tens of deaths. Marginally, it's 0.6% globally from the latest WHO data. The media is sensationalizing this and playing on peoples fears and emotions. Check out the graph on page 13 of the WHO report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi... > Aside from that, a much larger (as of yet unknown) number have permanent lung scarring. That's not a joke. Read about SARS and MERS long-term prognosis from similar scarring. To your own point, we have no idea if it's even a thing. Just because SARS, MERS and nCoV are all coronaviruses doesn't mean they act the same way. MERS has a 35% fatality rate vs. and I can't stress this enough 0.6%, so two whole orders of magnitude less fatal.

In Qoom nothing has been done. The Iraniam government refuses to take even the most basic control measures.

by wbl 7y ago

In Qoom nothing has been done. The Iraniam government refuses to take even the most basic control measures.

It also has a 0.7% case fatality rate in China (and 0.6% outside) on par with H1N1 at 0.45%. Nothing really needs to be done -- this time. The situation would be far, far worse with a disease that actually killed a lot of healthy individuals.

blagie 7y ago
Worldwide, there were 2,979 deaths and 42,576 recovered. That math suggests you might have an extra decimal point there. There are many ways to do the math, but 0.7% is not really a sensible number to work from. General consensus hovers at 2-3%. Aside from that, a much larger (as of yet unknown) number have permanent lung scarring. That's not a joke. Read about SARS and MERS long-term prognosis from similar scarring.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  That's unfortunately a common misunderstanding of how CFR or case fatality rate works. It begins huge as only the most serious cases are identified as nCoV and it falls as the long tail comes into view. Over the last few days, we've seen thousands of recoveries and tens of deaths. Marginally, it's 0.6% globally from the latest WHO data. The media is sensationalizing this and playing on peoples fears and emotions. Check out the graph on page 13 of the WHO report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi... > Aside from that, a much larger (as of yet unknown) number have permanent lung scarring. That's not a joke. Read about SARS and MERS long-term prognosis from similar scarring. To your own point, we have no idea if it's even a thing. Just because SARS, MERS and nCoV are all coronaviruses doesn't mean they act the same way. MERS has a 35% fatality rate vs. and I can't stress this enough 0.6%, so two whole orders of magnitude less fatal.