4 ms·

Definitely prepare, I mean there is not really a down side to it, but my instinct is to cut through the hype and look at the data. The site this article links t

Definitely prepare, I mean there is not really a down side to it, but my instinct is to cut through the hype and look at the data. The site this article links to is good: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Error bars on this would be even better, but note that the growth in cases is still linear, about 3000 new cases per day. It will be interesting to follow how this changes, with more testing in the US for example, but based on this one thing it looks to me like we'll make it to summer without it taking over the world. If you have better data or analysis, I'd like to see it. [edit]: found the curve that shows new cases outside of China, and it's indeed NOT linear: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

YZF 7y ago
But China shows us you can't just extrapolate the exponential curve. As cases grow there will be a response and China shows us (if you trust the numbers) the response makes a big difference. There may be a short term exponential growth but with contact tracing and various quarantine measures that curve may decay (e.g. many of the contacts may catch the virus, their families might, but the following transmission could be reduced). I actually stocked up (we always have lots of bulk dry foods anyways) so I can stay home if needed but there's really no clear picture of what's going on. If there is widespread transmission coming from asymptomatic people that would mean this is a lot less dangerous than people think, maybe all these people coughing in the office actually have covid19... If there isn't than why worry yet. There is some evidence that suggests this doesn't transmit very well (e.g. many people quarantined through close contact tracing did not catch the virus) yet there is some contradictory evidence (e.g. the cruise ship or larger clusters.). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. If you live in an urban area with millions of people what would be a reasonable threshold of cases to isolate yourself completely? My feel is that it's worthwhile being cautions and also assuming the actual numbers are ahead of the curve we see. As long as the projected numbers are still small relative to the overall population then washing your hands, being careful what you touch (your face and shared surfaces), and reducing unnecessary close contacts with random people are likely good enough safety measures. As the numbers grow you can consider completely eliminating contact with others though that can be pretty difficult.
- 411111111111111 7y ago
  the next two month are definitely going to be the most interesting one's this year. it'll either be the most overhyped over preparedness... or the more likely outcome of a lot of death after the hospitals are oversaturated. which is almost guranteed to happen if 70% or our population gets infected. at least its not "as far" as the climate crisis, so less time you have to listen to deniers.
- trevyn 7y ago
  >if you trust the numbers In which case all hope is probably lost on this hypothetical you. China has way too many incentives to lie, and has consistently demonstrated that lying is how it operates.
  - YZF 7y ago
    I'm not sure what their motivation to lie is here. Also there is the observable number of exported cases from China which seems to have fallen in correlation with their reported successes.
natalyarostova 7y ago
Remember, error bars give us the ability to reason about estimation and sampling error. But not more subtle forms of bias, information loss, or some concepts of fat tails.
qznc 7y ago
The growth factor [0] is quite noisy around the critical 1.0. The number of active cases has gone down from 60k at Feb 17 to 40k today. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

YZF 7y ago

But China shows us you can't just extrapolate the exponential curve. As cases grow there will be a response and China shows us (if you trust the numbers) the response makes a big difference. There may be a short term exponential growth but with contact tracing and various quarantine measures that curve may decay (e.g. many of the contacts may catch the virus, their families might, but the following transmission could be reduced). I actually stocked up (we always have lots of bulk dry foods anyways) so I can stay home if needed but there's really no clear picture of what's going on. If there is widespread transmission coming from asymptomatic people that would mean this is a lot less dangerous than people think, maybe all these people coughing in the office actually have covid19... If there isn't than why worry yet. There is some evidence that suggests this doesn't transmit very well (e.g. many people quarantined through close contact tracing did not catch the virus) yet there is some contradictory evidence (e.g. the cruise ship or larger clusters.). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. If you live in an urban area with millions of people what would be a reasonable threshold of cases to isolate yourself completely? My feel is that it's worthwhile being cautions and also assuming the actual numbers are ahead of the curve we see. As long as the projected numbers are still small relative to the overall population then washing your hands, being careful what you touch (your face and shared surfaces), and reducing unnecessary close contacts with random people are likely good enough safety measures. As the numbers grow you can consider completely eliminating contact with others though that can be pretty difficult.

411111111111111 7y ago
the next two month are definitely going to be the most interesting one's this year. it'll either be the most overhyped over preparedness... or the more likely outcome of a lot of death after the hospitals are oversaturated. which is almost guranteed to happen if 70% or our population gets infected. at least its not "as far" as the climate crisis, so less time you have to listen to deniers.
trevyn 7y ago
>if you trust the numbers In which case all hope is probably lost on this hypothetical you. China has way too many incentives to lie, and has consistently demonstrated that lying is how it operates.
- YZF 7y ago
  I'm not sure what their motivation to lie is here. Also there is the observable number of exported cases from China which seems to have fallen in correlation with their reported successes.

natalyarostova 7y ago

Remember, error bars give us the ability to reason about estimation and sampling error. But not more subtle forms of bias, information loss, or some concepts of fat tails.

qznc 7y ago

The growth factor [0] is quite noisy around the critical 1.0. The number of active cases has gone down from 60k at Feb 17 to 40k today. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...