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It does not favorably compare to SARS-CoV-2003. 15%-25% have severe symptoms. 5%+ critical. Of the first 100 cohorts in Wuhan with critical symptoms, 49 died (

It does not favorably compare to SARS-CoV-2003. 15%-25% have severe symptoms. 5%+ critical. Of the first 100 cohorts in Wuhan with critical symptoms, 49 died (2.5% mortality rate). Patient-1 in Italy is a 38-year-old marathon runner. He is unconscious, intubated, and fighting for life. Doctors say they need "luck". Doctors and nurses are dying from this. They did not die from treating patients with the garden variety flu. Conservative estimates put the mortality rate at 2.3%, with only room to grow as people die years later. If you have severe symptoms, but are send home to self-quarantine, because the hospitals are over capacity, death rate is estimated at 80%-85%. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

nonbirithm 7y ago
Exactly. The current mortality rate is predicated on the fact that people with confirmed cases are getting complete medical care. Instead it would be clearer if this were indicated as a given only because of the circumstance that there are still enough hospital beds for everyone being infected. The more important factor is the hospitalization rate. If enough people become sick and hospitals become overloaded with patients they cannot treat to recovery faster than the virus spreads, there would be no choice but to send them elsewhere and the mortality rate would drastically increase. There are only so many professional medical staff but the virus has no limits on the amount of people it can spread to, and it sounds like the amount of continually attended medical care necessary for complete recovery is substantial. Combine that with the fact that licensed virologists are giving estimates of 40-70% of the global population becoming infected, and I'm beginning to question why nobody in my immediate circle is taking this as an imminent and serious threat to their health.
- eveningcoffee 7y ago
  I think the reason why people dismiss this is that they are either stupid (including intentional ignorance) or scared (to even think about this). I think that there is also huge amount misinformation circulating initiated by the people who should know better (especially should know better when to not give wrong answer then they actually have no idea).
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Or because the data doesn’t bear out the panic. South Korean CFR is 0.2% and over 55% asymptomatic means it may be less fatal than the H1N1 influenza A virus. People are hoarding tinned food over something as severe as the common flu. Yeah another virus isn’t optimal but it’s by no means the apocalypse.
    - confeit 7y ago
      For countries with outbreaks: - Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread; For the public: - Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected people will recover; So the WHO tells you it's serious and concerning. Not that it is as severe as the common flu. Did we see proper management of outbreaks in the West? Well... > "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the C.D.C.," said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. About hoarding canned foods: > We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly > Dr. Theresa Tam: Prepare ... Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food. Both Canada and US CDC have told people to prepare, including stocking up on non-perishable food. What's the worst thing that could happen when this turns out to be a tempest in a teacup? You eat from your pantry the next few months, or you donate it to a homeless shelter. What's the worst thing that could happen, when you don't prepare, and this turns into quarantine-levels bad? You'll have to live with the guilt of ridiculing people for preparing for one. The other bad things are unspeakable. The data you gather may not bear out the panic, but can you think of a reason for that, something to do with social order and public policy in light of a global pandemic? CFR is not everything, you may survive the first round, with neurological damage, bone damage, lung damage, testicular damage, heart damage, psychological damage, and kidney damage. > it’s by no means the apocalypse This may be how you cope, but you can't say this for sure. There is a proper chance at a global crisis, with the impact of the Spanish Flu or WWII. There is too much uncertainty to be complacent and factually discard this. This novel virus is from extremistan, and we "just don't know the damage this virus can do".

nonbirithm 7y ago

Exactly. The current mortality rate is predicated on the fact that people with confirmed cases are getting complete medical care. Instead it would be clearer if this were indicated as a given only because of the circumstance that there are still enough hospital beds for everyone being infected. The more important factor is the hospitalization rate. If enough people become sick and hospitals become overloaded with patients they cannot treat to recovery faster than the virus spreads, there would be no choice but to send them elsewhere and the mortality rate would drastically increase. There are only so many professional medical staff but the virus has no limits on the amount of people it can spread to, and it sounds like the amount of continually attended medical care necessary for complete recovery is substantial. Combine that with the fact that licensed virologists are giving estimates of 40-70% of the global population becoming infected, and I'm beginning to question why nobody in my immediate circle is taking this as an imminent and serious threat to their health.

eveningcoffee 7y ago
I think the reason why people dismiss this is that they are either stupid (including intentional ignorance) or scared (to even think about this). I think that there is also huge amount misinformation circulating initiated by the people who should know better (especially should know better when to not give wrong answer then they actually have no idea).
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Or because the data doesn’t bear out the panic. South Korean CFR is 0.2% and over 55% asymptomatic means it may be less fatal than the H1N1 influenza A virus. People are hoarding tinned food over something as severe as the common flu. Yeah another virus isn’t optimal but it’s by no means the apocalypse.
  - confeit 7y ago
    For countries with outbreaks: - Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread; For the public: - Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected people will recover; So the WHO tells you it's serious and concerning. Not that it is as severe as the common flu. Did we see proper management of outbreaks in the West? Well... > "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the C.D.C.," said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. About hoarding canned foods: > We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly > Dr. Theresa Tam: Prepare ... Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food. Both Canada and US CDC have told people to prepare, including stocking up on non-perishable food. What's the worst thing that could happen when this turns out to be a tempest in a teacup? You eat from your pantry the next few months, or you donate it to a homeless shelter. What's the worst thing that could happen, when you don't prepare, and this turns into quarantine-levels bad? You'll have to live with the guilt of ridiculing people for preparing for one. The other bad things are unspeakable. The data you gather may not bear out the panic, but can you think of a reason for that, something to do with social order and public policy in light of a global pandemic? CFR is not everything, you may survive the first round, with neurological damage, bone damage, lung damage, testicular damage, heart damage, psychological damage, and kidney damage. > it’s by no means the apocalypse This may be how you cope, but you can't say this for sure. There is a proper chance at a global crisis, with the impact of the Spanish Flu or WWII. There is too much uncertainty to be complacent and factually discard this. This novel virus is from extremistan, and we "just don't know the damage this virus can do".