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> Numbers don't mean much. Really? > You don't have confirmed cases if you don't test. There's appropriate testing. You and some media outlets are just fear

> Numbers don't mean much. Really? > You don't have confirmed cases if you don't test. There's appropriate testing. You and some media outlets are just fear mongering. There's less testing overall because there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well. Other countries did and have not. Yes there have been some blunders, but that's human. I don't think blanket statements politicizing the situation helps.

PeterisP 7y ago
> there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well. Can you elaborate on that? Up to now everything shows that US government did not quarantine it very well, the chances for early testing and isolation of early cases were missed because of too restricted testing, and now we're getting severe patients who did not have any travel history, so they've been infected somewhere on US soil a week or two ago from sources who haven't been identified (possibly because they themselves have only mild symptoms and don't need hospitalization) and presumably have infected others. These "surprise patients" are evidence that community spread in USA has started some time ago already. From what I see, countries like Singapore and South Korea are some examples of implementing somewhat effective quarantine measures, and USA has quarantined it much worse than other countries, it's just that it's been hidden due to lack of testing and the time delay of severe symptoms, so we're just starting to see the consequences of that.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is likely), it's still not even close. It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why they are trying to fear monger.
  - drozak 7y ago
    >> Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why they are trying to fear monger. Press conferences held by US leadership seem to indicate that they're not well prepared for an actual crisis, but are prepared to play politics with one. This does not bode well.
    - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
      I guess we haven't been watching the same press conferences. Care to elaborate what you had issue with?
  - craftinator 7y ago
    > The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources. > Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. No. We've put our collective heads in the sand, and hidden from testing any significant number of people. > It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. This is the outcome of a bad quarantine. > You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. The CDC has already mishandled it. They created red tape making the criteria for administering testing very narrow. They coerced medical establishments to only use their test kits, rather than being able to pick from known working kits proven elsewhere in the world. Then, the kits they issued were flawed, and they forbade medical professionals from administering them. They have literally done nothing right yet. Have you seen their official webpage on Covid-19? It doesn't even describe the common chain of symptoms; instead it has multiple bullet points about Covid-19 Stigma... You get better and more complete information from reddit.
    - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
      > The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources. We know they are from other countries that weren't able to get their quarantine under control. Iran and South Korea. Flights from SK were banned this Saturday morning. Flights from Iran were already banned, but now those coming from Canada and other countries that have been in Iran can no longer enter either. > This is the outcome of a bad quarantine. So you agree that case numbers matter and the US has dealt with it the best so far, because it's spread across the world much more prevalent than here. > You get better and more complete information from reddit. Your reaction makes a lot of sense now.
fredophile 7y ago
I don't think it's been quarantined well. In fact, I'd say the quarantine here in the US was handled very badly. Workers were exposed to quarantined individuals without proper equipment or training[0]. The virus has a long period before people show symptoms so the current number of people infected is probably larger and more widespread than we know. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-29/3-new-us-coronavirus-cases-of-unknown-origin-reported-who-ups-risk-level-to-very-high https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-29/...
craftinator 7y ago
You assert that numbers mean a lot. You also state that appropriate testing is being done. What number of tests need to be administered to attain an appropriately sized population for statistical analysis? The answer to this is a LOT MORE than the ~3500 tests that have been conducted in the US over the last month. We already have people testing positive who have not travelled overseas and have not come into contact with known carriers. The CDC has labeled those cases as community acquired cases. That means we KNOW that we don't have accurate numbers, and we KNOW that there are more people sick than our data suggests. It also means that some population of carriers are both not in quarantine, and are activity transmitting to others. So the quarantine in the US has failed, and we have no idea how badly. Paranoia is warranted at this point.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  > So the quarantine in the US has failed, and we have no idea how badly. No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much. Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly. The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done really well thanks to the early travel bans that the media was against. > Paranoia is warranted at this point. Stop fear mongering.
  - drozak 7y ago
    >> Stop fear mongering. You might have the best of intentions, but you're not really helping anyone. The US appears to be mirroring China's missteps quite well, and we all know how things turned out there. Unfounded optimism is as dangerous as fearmongering.
  - craftinator 7y ago
    > No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much. In an earlier post you wrote, "There's less testing overall because there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well." If the US government did so well at quarantine that they didn't need to do any surveillance testing, how is it now spreading outside of quarantine? Your statement is an assertion that the government has stopped it from spreading, by the logic that they wouldn't need to test outside of quarantine. So yeah, you did suggest it. > Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly. There is no treatment that is known to work. There are four or five that are, or are approaching, clinical trials. The one that looks most promising to me is being used in a trial in Wuhan. > The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done really well thanks to the early travel bans that the media was against. We have no idea when the quarantine broke. We just know we've had several cases of people in hospitals who were sick and had no clue who they got it from. It could have been a single carrier, or they could be representing a thousand people who are just beginning to develop flu-like symptoms... We just don't know. Not enough data. > > Paranoia is warranted at this point. > Stop fear mongering. I will monger fear when I think it's necessary; an illness that doubles the number of infected every 6 days, has no cure or treatment, has a death rate higher than swine flu, and takes a median of 4.5 days to even show symptoms scares the hell out of me, and it should scare the hell out of you too. And if you think the government "has this under control", you've obviously never worked for them. I did for nearly a decade, and they take months to get their heads out of their asses.

PeterisP 7y ago

> there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well. Can you elaborate on that? Up to now everything shows that US government did not quarantine it very well, the chances for early testing and isolation of early cases were missed because of too restricted testing, and now we're getting severe patients who did not have any travel history, so they've been infected somewhere on US soil a week or two ago from sources who haven't been identified (possibly because they themselves have only mild symptoms and don't need hospitalization) and presumably have infected others. These "surprise patients" are evidence that community spread in USA has started some time ago already. From what I see, countries like Singapore and South Korea are some examples of implementing somewhat effective quarantine measures, and USA has quarantined it much worse than other countries, it's just that it's been hidden due to lack of testing and the time delay of severe symptoms, so we're just starting to see the consequences of that.

s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is likely), it's still not even close. It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why they are trying to fear monger.
- drozak 7y ago
  >> Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why they are trying to fear monger. Press conferences held by US leadership seem to indicate that they're not well prepared for an actual crisis, but are prepared to play politics with one. This does not bode well.
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
    I guess we haven't been watching the same press conferences. Care to elaborate what you had issue with?
- craftinator 7y ago
  > The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources. > Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. No. We've put our collective heads in the sand, and hidden from testing any significant number of people. > It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. This is the outcome of a bad quarantine. > You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. The CDC has already mishandled it. They created red tape making the criteria for administering testing very narrow. They coerced medical establishments to only use their test kits, rather than being able to pick from known working kits proven elsewhere in the world. Then, the kits they issued were flawed, and they forbade medical professionals from administering them. They have literally done nothing right yet. Have you seen their official webpage on Covid-19? It doesn't even describe the common chain of symptoms; instead it has multiple bullet points about Covid-19 Stigma... You get better and more complete information from reddit.
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
    > The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources. We know they are from other countries that weren't able to get their quarantine under control. Iran and South Korea. Flights from SK were banned this Saturday morning. Flights from Iran were already banned, but now those coming from Canada and other countries that have been in Iran can no longer enter either. > This is the outcome of a bad quarantine. So you agree that case numbers matter and the US has dealt with it the best so far, because it's spread across the world much more prevalent than here. > You get better and more complete information from reddit. Your reaction makes a lot of sense now.

fredophile 7y ago

I don't think it's been quarantined well. In fact, I'd say the quarantine here in the US was handled very badly. Workers were exposed to quarantined individuals without proper equipment or training[0]. The virus has a long period before people show symptoms so the current number of people infected is probably larger and more widespread than we know. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-29/3-new-us-coronavirus-cases-of-unknown-origin-reported-who-ups-risk-level-to-very-high https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-29/...

craftinator 7y ago

You assert that numbers mean a lot. You also state that appropriate testing is being done. What number of tests need to be administered to attain an appropriately sized population for statistical analysis? The answer to this is a LOT MORE than the ~3500 tests that have been conducted in the US over the last month. We already have people testing positive who have not travelled overseas and have not come into contact with known carriers. The CDC has labeled those cases as community acquired cases. That means we KNOW that we don't have accurate numbers, and we KNOW that there are more people sick than our data suggests. It also means that some population of carriers are both not in quarantine, and are activity transmitting to others. So the quarantine in the US has failed, and we have no idea how badly. Paranoia is warranted at this point.

s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
> So the quarantine in the US has failed, and we have no idea how badly. No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much. Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly. The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done really well thanks to the early travel bans that the media was against. > Paranoia is warranted at this point. Stop fear mongering.
- drozak 7y ago
  >> Stop fear mongering. You might have the best of intentions, but you're not really helping anyone. The US appears to be mirroring China's missteps quite well, and we all know how things turned out there. Unfounded optimism is as dangerous as fearmongering.
- craftinator 7y ago
  > No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much. In an earlier post you wrote, "There's less testing overall because there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well." If the US government did so well at quarantine that they didn't need to do any surveillance testing, how is it now spreading outside of quarantine? Your statement is an assertion that the government has stopped it from spreading, by the logic that they wouldn't need to test outside of quarantine. So yeah, you did suggest it. > Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly. There is no treatment that is known to work. There are four or five that are, or are approaching, clinical trials. The one that looks most promising to me is being used in a trial in Wuhan. > The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done really well thanks to the early travel bans that the media was against. We have no idea when the quarantine broke. We just know we've had several cases of people in hospitals who were sick and had no clue who they got it from. It could have been a single carrier, or they could be representing a thousand people who are just beginning to develop flu-like symptoms... We just don't know. Not enough data. > > Paranoia is warranted at this point. > Stop fear mongering. I will monger fear when I think it's necessary; an illness that doubles the number of infected every 6 days, has no cure or treatment, has a death rate higher than swine flu, and takes a median of 4.5 days to even show symptoms scares the hell out of me, and it should scare the hell out of you too. And if you think the government "has this under control", you've obviously never worked for them. I did for nearly a decade, and they take months to get their heads out of their asses.