4 ms·

I’m starting to take some precautionary measures even here in Virginia. Stocking up on food and other emergency supplies, avoiding public transit and walking ev

I’m starting to take some precautionary measures even here in Virginia. Stocking up on food and other emergency supplies, avoiding public transit and walking everywhere, wiping down all surfaces I come in contact with with Clorox wipes I keep in my backpack. Hopefully I’m just going insane and there’s no reason to panic, but a respiratory illness with no treatment protocol besides quarantine, an r nought of probably no less than 2 given lack of testing, and untraceable infection paths for new cases domestically sounds concerning to me. This isn’t Ebola or Zika. This doesn’t even look like SARS. It looks more like the first wave of Spanish flu. Second wave of Spanish flu made it land in the history books. I really, really hope I’m just going insane and nothing will happen.

themagician 7y ago
Definitely sounds insane to me. Stop reading the news mate. >80% of cases are mild symptoms. A mild cold. Under 50 has a fatality rate of less than 0.5%. Almost all fatalities are over 70 or people who are already severely ill. You are about 25x more likely to die of the seasonal flu at this point. This is media hysteria in a post fact world where all information from all sources is equally valid. Everyone is trying to be heard to make their case. If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu, their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a bunch of FUD.
- meesterdude 7y ago
  > If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu, their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a bunch of FUD. The 34 year old Chinese doctor who spoke up about the virus died. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795
  - themagician 7y ago
    That’s called an outlier.
  - yingw787 7y ago
    I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The sicker other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them, the more lethal it becomes. I’m checking reddit r/COVID19, which is a science based discussion forum with cited academic papers and flaired scientists. It started turning into a prepper forum but I think the mods are shutting that down pretty quickly. I go there for my news.
    - Nuzzerino 7y ago
      Would not trust /r/COVID19 for anything. There's been a lot of criticism on how they are applying censorship, and no transparency around it. https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/f2jiyz/uclo_junkie_controls_all_coronavirus_related/ https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/f2jiyz/uclo_jun...
    - mlyle 7y ago
      I'm an active poster there. It's worth noting this is only a hypothesis. Yes, in general, across viral illnesses, people have a worse course of disease with high viral load. Whether that's a primary cause of differences in prognosis-- who knows. It would help explain why medical practitioners seem to do so badly.
      - yingw787 7y ago
        Thank you very much for the clarification and for posting there! Yes, it is but one explanation and one possible reason out of many. I think others there have mentioned stress (I believe I read one 27 y/o doctor sadly dropped dead after working 10 days straight) and contexts such as existing immune system health (I've read a good number of stories of outbreaks in hospitals in addition to this nursing home story).
        mlyle 7y ago
        Yup. I'm not really involved in medicine (I've done a couple of things on the periphery), but one thing I've learned from reading lots of papers is just because something seems to make perfect sense doesn't mean it's what is actually happening. Another factor beyond just viral load is viral diversity. People that are exposed to high viral loads also tend to be exposed to a genetically diverse population of viruses with a range of virulence and there's more likely to be virus that is particularly adapted to grow in that person and virulent. Also, there is almost certainly genetic variance in 2019-nCoV virulence and lethality, and the nastier strains are probably more concentrated in hospitals.
- pugworthy 7y ago
  Even if you are of an age where the risk of fatality or becoming very ill is minimal, consider this: if you have it for a few weeks even in a minor way, you are actively spreading it. You don’t self isolate for yourself, you do it for all the people you can spread it to.

themagician 7y ago

Definitely sounds insane to me. Stop reading the news mate. >80% of cases are mild symptoms. A mild cold. Under 50 has a fatality rate of less than 0.5%. Almost all fatalities are over 70 or people who are already severely ill. You are about 25x more likely to die of the seasonal flu at this point. This is media hysteria in a post fact world where all information from all sources is equally valid. Everyone is trying to be heard to make their case. If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu, their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a bunch of FUD.

meesterdude 7y ago
> If you are 70+ or severely ill this IS pretty bad because, unlike the flu, their is literally no defense. If you don’t fit that profile it’s just a bunch of FUD. The 34 year old Chinese doctor who spoke up about the virus died. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795
- themagician 7y ago
  That’s called an outlier.
- yingw787 7y ago
  I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The sicker other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them, the more lethal it becomes. I’m checking reddit r/COVID19, which is a science based discussion forum with cited academic papers and flaired scientists. It started turning into a prepper forum but I think the mods are shutting that down pretty quickly. I go there for my news.
  - Nuzzerino 7y ago
    Would not trust /r/COVID19 for anything. There's been a lot of criticism on how they are applying censorship, and no transparency around it. https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/f2jiyz/uclo_junkie_controls_all_coronavirus_related/ https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/f2jiyz/uclo_jun...
  - mlyle 7y ago
    I'm an active poster there. It's worth noting this is only a hypothesis. Yes, in general, across viral illnesses, people have a worse course of disease with high viral load. Whether that's a primary cause of differences in prognosis-- who knows. It would help explain why medical practitioners seem to do so badly.
    - yingw787 7y ago
      Thank you very much for the clarification and for posting there! Yes, it is but one explanation and one possible reason out of many. I think others there have mentioned stress (I believe I read one 27 y/o doctor sadly dropped dead after working 10 days straight) and contexts such as existing immune system health (I've read a good number of stories of outbreaks in hospitals in addition to this nursing home story).
      - mlyle 7y ago
        Yup. I'm not really involved in medicine (I've done a couple of things on the periphery), but one thing I've learned from reading lots of papers is just because something seems to make perfect sense doesn't mean it's what is actually happening. Another factor beyond just viral load is viral diversity. People that are exposed to high viral loads also tend to be exposed to a genetically diverse population of viruses with a range of virulence and there's more likely to be virus that is particularly adapted to grow in that person and virulent. Also, there is almost certainly genetic variance in 2019-nCoV virulence and lethality, and the nastier strains are probably more concentrated in hospitals.
pugworthy 7y ago
Even if you are of an age where the risk of fatality or becoming very ill is minimal, consider this: if you have it for a few weeks even in a minor way, you are actively spreading it. You don’t self isolate for yourself, you do it for all the people you can spread it to.