4 ms·

Statistically it is still far more likely that they had the flu. I think it is dangerous to overstate the problem because then when it really does become an iss

Statistically it is still far more likely that they had the flu. I think it is dangerous to overstate the problem because then when it really does become an issue it will be dismissed because of all the previous folks "crying wolf."

jlmorton 7y ago
At this point, it's much more likely that these residents and staff were exposed to Covid-19. We know of two confirmed cases at this facility, and no confirmed cases of influenza. Given our knowledge of the contagiousness of Covid-19, it would make little sense to assume this cluster of respiratory illnesses is not Covid-19.
- abootstrapper 7y ago
  I mean, there’s always wishful thinking. That seems to be the US’s current response.
Pfhreak 7y ago
You can test for influenza. In that article I didn't see, "tested positive for influenza". I did see "tested positive for coronavirus". So no, I don't think it's statistically more likely that ill patients around a highly contagious disease randomly picked up something else.
- vanniv 7y ago
  The influenza test exists, bit it has a very high false negative rate. It is useful in epidemiology, because if you test large populations, you'll get enough positives to learn something -- but you learn virtually nothing from a negative influenza test.
didericis 7y ago
Not to be too snarky, but your response could be seen as precisely the kind of dismissive response you’re trying to prevent. Now is the time to be vigilant. I’d rather have too many people thinking they have this and self isolating/getting tested than too few.
craftinator 7y ago
"Statistically" means, in this case, based on data. The data we have right now is EXCEEDINGLY poor. The US just hasn't been testing many people, and the CDC has mandated that only people who travel abroad and those they contact should be tested. It's obvious based on these new cases that Covid-19 is being spread through communities, rather than by single carriers who've travelled abroad. Statistics based on bad data (which we know is bad at this point) is analogous to guessing, and when guessing it's best to guess with the more cautious point of view. Is it still more likely, at this point in time, that a person with flu-like symptoms has flu? Probably. Given the transmission rate from Chinese data (also bad data, but not as bad as ours), the US likely has more flu carriers than Covid-19 carriers. But how much more likely? No one knows, and no one can know, until we get a reasonable sample population tested.

jlmorton 7y ago

At this point, it's much more likely that these residents and staff were exposed to Covid-19. We know of two confirmed cases at this facility, and no confirmed cases of influenza. Given our knowledge of the contagiousness of Covid-19, it would make little sense to assume this cluster of respiratory illnesses is not Covid-19.

abootstrapper 7y ago
I mean, there’s always wishful thinking. That seems to be the US’s current response.

Pfhreak 7y ago

You can test for influenza. In that article I didn't see, "tested positive for influenza". I did see "tested positive for coronavirus". So no, I don't think it's statistically more likely that ill patients around a highly contagious disease randomly picked up something else.

vanniv 7y ago
The influenza test exists, bit it has a very high false negative rate. It is useful in epidemiology, because if you test large populations, you'll get enough positives to learn something -- but you learn virtually nothing from a negative influenza test.

didericis 7y ago

Not to be too snarky, but your response could be seen as precisely the kind of dismissive response you’re trying to prevent. Now is the time to be vigilant. I’d rather have too many people thinking they have this and self isolating/getting tested than too few.

craftinator 7y ago

"Statistically" means, in this case, based on data. The data we have right now is EXCEEDINGLY poor. The US just hasn't been testing many people, and the CDC has mandated that only people who travel abroad and those they contact should be tested. It's obvious based on these new cases that Covid-19 is being spread through communities, rather than by single carriers who've travelled abroad. Statistics based on bad data (which we know is bad at this point) is analogous to guessing, and when guessing it's best to guess with the more cautious point of view. Is it still more likely, at this point in time, that a person with flu-like symptoms has flu? Probably. Given the transmission rate from Chinese data (also bad data, but not as bad as ours), the US likely has more flu carriers than Covid-19 carriers. But how much more likely? No one knows, and no one can know, until we get a reasonable sample population tested.