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> to increase the military presence to a level that they could effectively remove the Taliban This is easier said than done, if it is possible at all. Having

> to increase the military presence to a level that they could effectively remove the Taliban This is easier said than done, if it is possible at all. Having recently taken a dive into the U.S.' involvement in Vietnam, this argument rings eerily similar the one that got us into and led to our escalation in Vietnam.

mythrwy 7y ago
I think these things are more possible than people believe. If it were truly an existential threat the US would remove the Taliban very quickly (that doesn't imply a safe orderly society would result). But Afghanistan, like Vietnam is an optional and non-essential conflict at this point with unclear definitions of victory. Maybe "victory" is packing up and going home at this point.
- Spearchucker 7y ago
  The Russians also thought victory in Afghanistan was possible. Their humiliation was absolute. The US' mistake was not capitalizing on Russia's failure, choosing instead to make exactly the same mistake.
  - anarazel 7y ago
    I don't think that was inevitable. If the Bush admin hadn't fucked up on such a grandiose scale after the invasion the result could have looked quite different (still surely far from pretty).
- dennisgorelik 7y ago
  > Maybe "victory" is packing up and going home at this point. In case of Afghanistan, it is not just "maybe". Packing up and go home - is a clear win for the US in Afghanistan.
  - warlog 7y ago
    Clear win. Like Vietnam.
- mturmon 7y ago
  > ... the US would remove the Taliban very quickly... No, no, no. The Taliban were broadly distributed throughout Southern Afghanistan, and they had a cross border sanctuary in Pakistan. For its own reasons (Kashmir and the regional rivalry with India), Pakistan didn’t want to alienate the Taliban, and their military and ISI thus had extensive relations with the Taliban. The US did not have enough leverage to get Pakistan to shut down the Taliban on its side of the border, and likewise did not want the destabilization of a nuclear state with borders on China and India that would accompany violations of Pakistani sovereignty inherent in large scale bombing.
  - smt1 7y ago
    > No, no, no. The Taliban were broadly distributed throughout Southern Afghanistan, and they had a cross border sanctuary in Pakistan. I guess it depends on your definition of "remove". I don't doubt that a Taliban government could be very quickly overthrown by the US military. Probably within weeks. Now, the Taliban as an irregular militia is a completely different manner. I remember watching a Vice documentary on Afghanistan called "This is what winning looks like". The line that struck me was a US Marine saying something like "the average Taliban fighter fights within 15 yards of their home". If that's anything close to true, no wonder the Taliban have been so hard to defeat.
- anarazel 7y ago
  There were over 100k US troops deployed to Afghanistan at the peak (part of 2010-2011). Between 2009 and 2013 it was over 50k. The Soviet Union deployed over 115k for several years. The amount of fortune spent was a serious accelerator for the decline of the USSR. Afghanistan is a large, dispersed, and landlocked country. With huge amounts of weapons from many sides. Decades of war. Little trust between population groups.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  >>If it were truly an existential threat the US would remove the Taliban very quickly (that doesn't imply a safe orderly society would result). With what, nukes? Or by sending 5 million soldiers using $400/gallon gasoline https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-cost-of-gas-at-afghan-bases-400-gal/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-cost-of-gas-at-afghan-base... ? Like them or not, the Taliban are in their country and quite a few Afghani think like them. Let them be, with a major caveat--do not let anyone there attack us or our partners. I think they are rational enough to do that since USA did cause them a lot of problems. They are so many problems in the world, USA cannot fix them. Not even make a dent.
  - taejo 7y ago
    Just FYI, Afghanis are units of currency; citizens of Afghanistan are Afghans.
    - onetimemanytime 7y ago
      Thanks, didn't mean it as an insult (if it is https://www.thefreedictionary.com/afghanis https://www.thefreedictionary.com/afghanis )

mythrwy 7y ago

I think these things are more possible than people believe. If it were truly an existential threat the US would remove the Taliban very quickly (that doesn't imply a safe orderly society would result). But Afghanistan, like Vietnam is an optional and non-essential conflict at this point with unclear definitions of victory. Maybe "victory" is packing up and going home at this point.

Spearchucker 7y ago
The Russians also thought victory in Afghanistan was possible. Their humiliation was absolute. The US' mistake was not capitalizing on Russia's failure, choosing instead to make exactly the same mistake.
- anarazel 7y ago
  I don't think that was inevitable. If the Bush admin hadn't fucked up on such a grandiose scale after the invasion the result could have looked quite different (still surely far from pretty).
dennisgorelik 7y ago
> Maybe "victory" is packing up and going home at this point. In case of Afghanistan, it is not just "maybe". Packing up and go home - is a clear win for the US in Afghanistan.
- warlog 7y ago
  Clear win. Like Vietnam.
mturmon 7y ago
> ... the US would remove the Taliban very quickly... No, no, no. The Taliban were broadly distributed throughout Southern Afghanistan, and they had a cross border sanctuary in Pakistan. For its own reasons (Kashmir and the regional rivalry with India), Pakistan didn’t want to alienate the Taliban, and their military and ISI thus had extensive relations with the Taliban. The US did not have enough leverage to get Pakistan to shut down the Taliban on its side of the border, and likewise did not want the destabilization of a nuclear state with borders on China and India that would accompany violations of Pakistani sovereignty inherent in large scale bombing.
- smt1 7y ago
  > No, no, no. The Taliban were broadly distributed throughout Southern Afghanistan, and they had a cross border sanctuary in Pakistan. I guess it depends on your definition of "remove". I don't doubt that a Taliban government could be very quickly overthrown by the US military. Probably within weeks. Now, the Taliban as an irregular militia is a completely different manner. I remember watching a Vice documentary on Afghanistan called "This is what winning looks like". The line that struck me was a US Marine saying something like "the average Taliban fighter fights within 15 yards of their home". If that's anything close to true, no wonder the Taliban have been so hard to defeat.
anarazel 7y ago
There were over 100k US troops deployed to Afghanistan at the peak (part of 2010-2011). Between 2009 and 2013 it was over 50k. The Soviet Union deployed over 115k for several years. The amount of fortune spent was a serious accelerator for the decline of the USSR. Afghanistan is a large, dispersed, and landlocked country. With huge amounts of weapons from many sides. Decades of war. Little trust between population groups.
onetimemanytime 7y ago
>>If it were truly an existential threat the US would remove the Taliban very quickly (that doesn't imply a safe orderly society would result). With what, nukes? Or by sending 5 million soldiers using $400/gallon gasoline https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-cost-of-gas-at-afghan-bases-400-gal/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-cost-of-gas-at-afghan-base... ? Like them or not, the Taliban are in their country and quite a few Afghani think like them. Let them be, with a major caveat--do not let anyone there attack us or our partners. I think they are rational enough to do that since USA did cause them a lot of problems. They are so many problems in the world, USA cannot fix them. Not even make a dent.
- taejo 7y ago
  Just FYI, Afghanis are units of currency; citizens of Afghanistan are Afghans.
  - onetimemanytime 7y ago
    Thanks, didn't mean it as an insult (if it is https://www.thefreedictionary.com/afghanis https://www.thefreedictionary.com/afghanis )