4 ms·

I agree about avoiding hysteria, but IF "most" people got the virus... Let's take "most" people to be 50% of the population. The Seattle Metro area had ~3.9 mi

I agree about avoiding hysteria, but IF "most" people got the virus... Let's take "most" people to be 50% of the population. The Seattle Metro area had ~3.9 million people in 2017. The virus death rate is currently estimated at 2%. So just accepting that 3.9m * 0.5 * 0.02 = 39,000 people will die in the the Seattle area alone seems a bit extreme

hnarn 7y ago
Saying that the death rate is 2% is extremely dishonest since it ignores one of the most important factors: age. For most people reading this you're off by an entire decimal.
- feanaro 7y ago
  That's only "dishonest" if your only concern is to estimate your own probability of dying and you are a young person. However, if you're trying to estimate the proportion of (confirmed) infected people that will die, it's a pretty good guess.