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This misses all the secondary effects an uncontained global pandemic would have, which would be wide-ranging. A sudden and prolonged 10% drop in global producti

This misses all the secondary effects an uncontained global pandemic would have, which would be wide-ranging. A sudden and prolonged 10% drop in global productivity could be a nightmare scenario. Having said that, I'm not panicking either, and I think it's still too early to assume it's going to be fully uncontained -- hell, once the weather starts warming it could all change dramatically. (But then again, I have the advantage of living in a first-world developed nation with strong health care; the massive numbers of people living in 2nd- and 3rd-world countries have a lot more reason to be concerned I think.) But the concerns here go well beyond the simple individual experience of contracting the illness.

pmoriarty 7y ago
The secondary effects could go far beyond productivity losses. If the health care system gets overwhelmed as we've seen in China (and as it already nearly does in the US every year due to seasonal flu), then even those 15%-20% (according to current estimates) with severe symptoms that could have been saved had the health care system not been overwhelmed are likely to die. Also, people with other life threatening illnesses that could have been kept alive may die when the health care system gets overwhelmed. Here[1] is a recent post from a doctor expressing his concerns: "The hospital beds are most of the time at full capacity. Usually I had to send on Friday 30% of my patients home to make place for the new ones that were coming over the weekend, and this without any major epidemic. The reserves of protective gear are low. A lot of doctors and nurses don’t want to work in these conditions and most probably won’t show up at work anymore after they see how many people are going to die ( especially if young ones are also gonna start dying left and right ). We don’t have enough personnel. We don’t have enough beds. We don’t have enough machines. I expect that the CFR will be around 10%." [1] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_between_47_and_7_dr_marc_wathelet_is_a/fj3ht5h/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_betw...

pmoriarty 7y ago

The secondary effects could go far beyond productivity losses. If the health care system gets overwhelmed as we've seen in China (and as it already nearly does in the US every year due to seasonal flu), then even those 15%-20% (according to current estimates) with severe symptoms that could have been saved had the health care system not been overwhelmed are likely to die. Also, people with other life threatening illnesses that could have been kept alive may die when the health care system gets overwhelmed. Here[1] is a recent post from a doctor expressing his concerns: "The hospital beds are most of the time at full capacity. Usually I had to send on Friday 30% of my patients home to make place for the new ones that were coming over the weekend, and this without any major epidemic. The reserves of protective gear are low. A lot of doctors and nurses don’t want to work in these conditions and most probably won’t show up at work anymore after they see how many people are going to die ( especially if young ones are also gonna start dying left and right ). We don’t have enough personnel. We don’t have enough beds. We don’t have enough machines. I expect that the CFR will be around 10%." [1] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_between_47_and_7_dr_marc_wathelet_is_a/fj3ht5h/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_betw...