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I'm not going to stop saying this. This looks very dangerous and we should take very precaution possible to slow transmission. All nonessential travel should be

I'm not going to stop saying this. This looks very dangerous and we should take very precaution possible to slow transmission. All nonessential travel should be avoided, don't touch your face, wash your hands. Slowing this virus down makes everything so much better. [1] Estimate that the case to fatality ratio is between 5-8%. The transmission rate is between 2 and 3. Both of these numbers are similar to the earlier SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. [2] The death rate in Wuhan is significantly higher than that outside. We want to buy time so our healthcare facilities can handle the volume of patients. Take precautions everyone! This may not seriously affect you but you can help prevent the spread to people you love. [1] https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630v4 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630v...

ramblerman 7y ago
> This looks very dangerous, fatality ratio is between 5-8%. We're better than this at HN. There are stats on the mortality rates, and given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate. Furthermore, recent autopsies have shown this is a virus that hits the lungs more than anything else. China with it's incredible pollution, might have skewed mortality rates that are higher than we may expect in Europe/US. Yes, we should do all we can to prevent the spread. The biggest risk is health facilities not being able to handle the amount of patients. This is very contagious. So please don't spread panic, more people going to the ICU without case doesn't help
- fzeroracer 7y ago
  > We're better than this at HN. There are stats on the mortality rates, and given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate. Generally speaking, people younger than 50 probably know someone older than 50 and might even be in daily contact with them. You know, parents, grandparents, uncles and all that. I'm not afraid of dying from the coronavirus, I'm afraid of being an infection vector for someone else higher at risk. > more people going to the ICU without case doesn't help In a sane healthcare system, this would actually help. Because ideally, we'd have cheap, easily accessible tests for the coronavirus and people could get tested in a safe environment without fear of spreading or catching it. But alas, it seems we're more comfortable with turning away potential coronavirus patients and letting them spread it on their own. Especially because people don't have the option to self-quarantine.
- vincnetas 7y ago
  0.4% is number of deaths / number of cases. Problem is that not all cases have recovered and there will be more deaths among them. But yes, main takeaways, don't panic, slow down spread as much as possible (aka wash your hands)
  - baddox 7y ago
    Presumably there are also many cases that are mild and will never be tested or reported.
  - CamperBob2 7y ago
    The fact that only a few deaths occurred on the cruise ship is pretty reassuring. Practically everyone on board would have been older and thus more at risk, yet there were only four deaths out of 600+ cases, IIRC.
- Medicalidiot 7y ago
  Oh so we don't care about anyone over the age of 50 now? Almost no one reading this thread is going to be in the patient populations that are going to die. I'm here to say this is going to kill the people you love, who are elderly. Also, smoking looks like it exacerbates the problems but the worst factor is age and immunosuppression; 1-2% of the US is immunosuppressed at any time. I'm advocating that you take precautions by not touching your face, washing your hands, and avoiding public places. Stocking up on food so you can avoid the grocery store later is a great idea. Avoiding people when you don't feel well and self quarantining are also great ideas.
  - dang 7y ago
    HN has plenty of readers over 50. Age diversity, from high school students to people who post about their programming jobs in the 1960s, is one of the best things about HN. I get that you feel strongly about coronavirus and are trying to be helpful, but these comments are starting to become repetitive, so if you'd pull back a bit, we'd be grateful. Repetition is the enemy of curiosity, which this site exists for.
    - Medicalidiot 7y ago
      I understand, I appreciate your feedback :)
- dang 7y ago
  > given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate Please let's stop making assumptions about who is over/under 50 and implications about how un/important their lives are. This has come up too often already, and it's leading to flamewars.
MiroF 7y ago
[1] Estimate that the case to fatality ratio is between 5-8%. The transmission rate is between 2 and 3. Both of these numbers are similar to the earlier SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. That's 2-3 times higher than most estimates that I've seen.

ramblerman 7y ago

> This looks very dangerous, fatality ratio is between 5-8%. We're better than this at HN. There are stats on the mortality rates, and given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate. Furthermore, recent autopsies have shown this is a virus that hits the lungs more than anything else. China with it's incredible pollution, might have skewed mortality rates that are higher than we may expect in Europe/US. Yes, we should do all we can to prevent the spread. The biggest risk is health facilities not being able to handle the amount of patients. This is very contagious. So please don't spread panic, more people going to the ICU without case doesn't help

fzeroracer 7y ago
> We're better than this at HN. There are stats on the mortality rates, and given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate. Generally speaking, people younger than 50 probably know someone older than 50 and might even be in daily contact with them. You know, parents, grandparents, uncles and all that. I'm not afraid of dying from the coronavirus, I'm afraid of being an infection vector for someone else higher at risk. > more people going to the ICU without case doesn't help In a sane healthcare system, this would actually help. Because ideally, we'd have cheap, easily accessible tests for the coronavirus and people could get tested in a safe environment without fear of spreading or catching it. But alas, it seems we're more comfortable with turning away potential coronavirus patients and letting them spread it on their own. Especially because people don't have the option to self-quarantine.
vincnetas 7y ago
0.4% is number of deaths / number of cases. Problem is that not all cases have recovered and there will be more deaths among them. But yes, main takeaways, don't panic, slow down spread as much as possible (aka wash your hands)
- baddox 7y ago
  Presumably there are also many cases that are mild and will never be tested or reported.
- CamperBob2 7y ago
  The fact that only a few deaths occurred on the cruise ship is pretty reassuring. Practically everyone on board would have been older and thus more at risk, yet there were only four deaths out of 600+ cases, IIRC.
Medicalidiot 7y ago
Oh so we don't care about anyone over the age of 50 now? Almost no one reading this thread is going to be in the patient populations that are going to die. I'm here to say this is going to kill the people you love, who are elderly. Also, smoking looks like it exacerbates the problems but the worst factor is age and immunosuppression; 1-2% of the US is immunosuppressed at any time. I'm advocating that you take precautions by not touching your face, washing your hands, and avoiding public places. Stocking up on food so you can avoid the grocery store later is a great idea. Avoiding people when you don't feel well and self quarantining are also great ideas.
- dang 7y ago
  HN has plenty of readers over 50. Age diversity, from high school students to people who post about their programming jobs in the 1960s, is one of the best things about HN. I get that you feel strongly about coronavirus and are trying to be helpful, but these comments are starting to become repetitive, so if you'd pull back a bit, we'd be grateful. Repetition is the enemy of curiosity, which this site exists for.
  - Medicalidiot 7y ago
    I understand, I appreciate your feedback :)
dang 7y ago
> given you are younger than 50 there is a less than 0.4% mortality rate Please let's stop making assumptions about who is over/under 50 and implications about how un/important their lives are. This has come up too often already, and it's leading to flamewars.

MiroF 7y ago

[1] Estimate that the case to fatality ratio is between 5-8%. The transmission rate is between 2 and 3. Both of these numbers are similar to the earlier SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. That's 2-3 times higher than most estimates that I've seen.