2 ms·
I can't imagine the simulation is simple enough to do in Excel. The R0 is good measure in the beginning when almost no one is infected, and there are no quarant
by satya71 7y ago
I can't imagine the simulation is simple enough to do in Excel. The R0 is good measure in the beginning when almost no one is infected, and there are no quarantines. Quarantines are happening and once a cluster is infected and can be isolated, R0 doesn't matter. Simulating all this is extremely hard.
Yes, the disease has potential to be devastation. Whether devastation actually happens is still very much an open question.
- robomartin 7y ago> I can't imagine the simulation is simple enough to do in Excel. Yes, of course, you are absolutely correct. I did qualify it with "under ideal conditions". The Excel exercise is a simple tool to get a sense of proportion, to understand what these numbers mean as a worst case. From there you can, if you have the time and knowledge, add real-life factors (such as percentage quarantined, diagnose failure rates, etc.) and improve the model. The way I tend to use these super simplistic models is to look at it as an impossible scenario yet one that educates me as to the potential rate of change. Then, to keep it simple, you add a multiplier or margin of error. In this case, say, 10x or 20x, pick a number. So, if the model is off by an order of magnitude it means the entire world is infected in 300 days. Something like that. The idea isn't to have a crystal ball, but rather to use it to explain that, no, this isn't H1N1 (the common flu), take it seriously.