4 ms·

I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.

tpmx 7y ago
> But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
  - joking 7y ago
    The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.

tpmx 7y ago

> But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
- joking 7y ago
  The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.