4 ms·

I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time.

by tpmx 7y ago

I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time. Mass contagion is inevitable at a global scale at this point.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.
- tpmx 7y ago
  > But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
    - joking 7y ago
      The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.
skmurphy 7y ago
experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
- tpmx 7y ago
  Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
  - 34679 7y ago
    That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore

by tpmx 7y ago

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago

I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.

tpmx 7y ago
> But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
  - joking 7y ago
    The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.

skmurphy 7y ago

experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."

tpmx 7y ago
Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
- 34679 7y ago
  That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore