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It's crazy to think that SK might have stamped this thing out if it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person. It reminds me of a book seri

It's crazy to think that SK might have stamped this thing out if it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person. It reminds me of a book series I read called the Second Apocalypse by R. Scott Bakker. One of the themes of the series is how (at least in his story) history often turns on the seemingly minor, self-interested actions of important people. I don't know if that's generally true in the real world, but it certainly seems true in this case.

tpmx 7y ago
I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time. Mass contagion is inevitable at a global scale at this point.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.
  - tpmx 7y ago
    > But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
      - joking 7y ago
        The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
        asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.
- skmurphy 7y ago
  experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
  - tpmx 7y ago
    Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
    - 34679 7y ago
      That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore
egfx 7y ago
Commonly known as the butterfly effect or a sliding door https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment Watch the Sliding Doors movie. A curious movie where you can see how one little change dramatically alters the course of (Gwyneth Paltrow's) life in a vivid way. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/
jorblumesea 7y ago
The sheer contagiousness of COVID19 means that any quarantine measures would only slow down, but not stop the spread. If they stamped it out in SK this month, in a few months it would be back. Most health experts believe it's inevitable it spreads around the globe.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
empath75 7y ago
> it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person Very unlikely. This thing’s R0 is high enough that it was never getting stopped.
- drclau 7y ago
  If stopping is not an option, delaying (or decreasing the speed of spreading) is the next best thing. Who is to say we won’t have a vaccine or some other treatment soon? Delaying means reducing potential deaths, suffering and economic impact.
jonplackett 7y ago
It’s crazy that the doctors could not force her to get tested and/or quarantine her. If this is the way we’re going to approach it in the west we’re screwed.

tpmx 7y ago

I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time. Mass contagion is inevitable at a global scale at this point.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.
- tpmx 7y ago
  > But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
    - joking 7y ago
      The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.
skmurphy 7y ago
experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
- tpmx 7y ago
  Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
  - 34679 7y ago
    That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore

egfx 7y ago

Commonly known as the butterfly effect or a sliding door https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment Watch the Sliding Doors movie. A curious movie where you can see how one little change dramatically alters the course of (Gwyneth Paltrow's) life in a vivid way. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/

jorblumesea 7y ago

The sheer contagiousness of COVID19 means that any quarantine measures would only slow down, but not stop the spread. If they stamped it out in SK this month, in a few months it would be back. Most health experts believe it's inevitable it spreads around the globe.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

empath75 7y ago

> it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person Very unlikely. This thing’s R0 is high enough that it was never getting stopped.

drclau 7y ago
If stopping is not an option, delaying (or decreasing the speed of spreading) is the next best thing. Who is to say we won’t have a vaccine or some other treatment soon? Delaying means reducing potential deaths, suffering and economic impact.

jonplackett 7y ago

It’s crazy that the doctors could not force her to get tested and/or quarantine her. If this is the way we’re going to approach it in the west we’re screwed.