6 ms·

The Korean Clusters: How coronavirus cases exploded in Korean churches/hospitals

56 points by lawrenceyan 7y ago

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
It's crazy to think that SK might have stamped this thing out if it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person. It reminds me of a book series I read called the Second Apocalypse by R. Scott Bakker. One of the themes of the series is how (at least in his story) history often turns on the seemingly minor, self-interested actions of important people. I don't know if that's generally true in the real world, but it certainly seems true in this case.
- tpmx 7y ago
  I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time. Mass contagion is inevitable at a global scale at this point.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.
    - tpmx 7y ago
      > But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
        joking 7y ago
        The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
        asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.
  - skmurphy 7y ago
    experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
    - tpmx 7y ago
      Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
      - 34679 7y ago
        That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore
- egfx 7y ago
  Commonly known as the butterfly effect or a sliding door https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment Watch the Sliding Doors movie. A curious movie where you can see how one little change dramatically alters the course of (Gwyneth Paltrow's) life in a vivid way. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/
- jorblumesea 7y ago
  The sheer contagiousness of COVID19 means that any quarantine measures would only slow down, but not stop the spread. If they stamped it out in SK this month, in a few months it would be back. Most health experts believe it's inevitable it spreads around the globe.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- empath75 7y ago
  > it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person Very unlikely. This thing’s R0 is high enough that it was never getting stopped.
  - drclau 7y ago
    If stopping is not an option, delaying (or decreasing the speed of spreading) is the next best thing. Who is to say we won’t have a vaccine or some other treatment soon? Delaying means reducing potential deaths, suffering and economic impact.
- jonplackett 7y ago
  It’s crazy that the doctors could not force her to get tested and/or quarantine her. If this is the way we’re going to approach it in the west we’re screwed.
mikekchar 7y ago
Something seems strange. The woman was in a traffic accident on the 6th. She attended church services on the 9th and 16th. On the 17th she was confirmed to have the virus. Then "days later" "hundreds of people" become ill at the church. I'm under the impression that the virus has a long incubation period. As it isn't clear where she got the virus, isn't it likely that she isn't the original carrier, but contracted it from some other connection to the church? I mean it seems like the first opportunity to infect people was the 9th and something like 10 days later hundreds of people are ill.
- alamortsubite 7y ago
  > Then "days later" "hundreds of people" become ill at the church. Days later, South Korean health officials tested people thought to have been in contact with the patient, and hundreds of those tests came back positive. The article doesn't say whether any of those tested showed symptoms (of any illness); the incubation period really isn't relevant.
- rriepe 7y ago
  The time to having it/transmitting it is quick, like 2 or 3 days. Symptoms come later, on average 6 days after that. If you're dealing with a big group of people, 10 days is sort of a smoking gun here.
- Erikun 7y ago
  Median incubation time 4 days and interquartile range 2-7 in this study in the New England Journal of Medicine, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
brenden2 7y ago
I just opened the NYTimes front page and counted the number of occurrences of "coronavirus". I counted 15 total. The biggest winners from coronavirus are going to be those who sell fear (i.e., mainstream media). I also suppose anyone who was astute enough to open a large short position against the market in the past week or two will profit. I think we're only going to see an increase in panic and fear before things settle down. What real impact there will be on the world remains to be seen, I think it's too early to tell. Worst case, it seems like the virus will mostly harm those who are at risk of death, but healthy people will probably be okay.
- wyxuan 7y ago
  ??????? This is way too critical of an approach to this issue. Coronavirus affects supply chains, schools and many other facets of our lives. If mainstream media didn’t report heavily on the risks that would be negligent. There have been many people who were healthy and have been infected, and also just because some people are at the risk of death; doesn’t means we should just cast off Coronavirus as a minor concern.
  - brenden2 7y ago
    A lot of people die every year for a lot of reasons. Have a look at the CDC's death statistics[1]. One interesting thing to note is that flu vaccines are widely available and quite affordable, and yet many people die every year from the flu. Yes, the virus may increase the total number of deaths overall, but my armchair hypothesis is that fear and panic will do more long term damage than the virus itself. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    - aurelwu 7y ago
      China has a flu every year, their reaction to the current outbreak is vastly different from a flu. That suggests that they consider it a bigger threat than the flu.
    - Spooks 7y ago
droithomme 7y ago
How do you infect 600 people during a 2 hr service if it's only transmitted through droplets and prolonged close contact.
- drclau 7y ago
  Transmission doesn’t occur only via droplets. The virus is supposed to survive for up to 9 days on surfaces/objects in normal conditions, and for up to 28-29 days at low temperatures: “Droplets transmitting coronaviruses only stay suspended in the air for a short time. Details for SARS-CoV-2 are not available as of 26 February 2020, and it is assumed that they are similar to other coronaviruses,[64] which may stay viable and contagious on a metal, glass or plastic surface for up to nine days at room temperature.[65] Disinfection of surfaces is possible with substances such as 62–71% ethanol applied for one minute.[65]“ — source: Wikipedia [0] What sort of rituals do these people follow? Do they have mass? Do they share maybe something like a spoon? Or touch the same objects on entering or leaving the place of prayer? References: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...
mmastrac 7y ago
Take this with a _huge_ grain of salt, but this article neglects to discuss the role of the Shincheonji followers - who have an interesting view on diseases and illness - in potentially spreading this disease. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea-cults-conservatives-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea...
ookblah 7y ago
Just some context too, that church isn't really representative of the "average" church there, but like a cult. Look up shincheonji. I feel their beliefs + how they conduct mass is contributing to this crazy increase. Something like 80% of the new cases today are linked to their members... and they have like 200k of them.

56 points by lawrenceyan 7y ago

It's crazy to think that SK might have stamped this thing out if it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person. It reminds me of a book series I read called the Second Apocalypse by R. Scott Bakker. One of the themes of the series is how (at least in his story) history often turns on the seemingly minor, self-interested actions of important people. I don't know if that's generally true in the real world, but it certainly seems true in this case.

tpmx 7y ago
I don't think they could avoided the virus, realistically speaking. What this one person did was to bring mass contagion in SK maybe 3-4 weeks closer in time. Mass contagion is inevitable at a global scale at this point.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  I think there is a chance that's true. But there's also a decent chance it is still containable. All depends on whether China's numbers are accurate.
  - tpmx 7y ago
    > But there's also a decent chance it is still containable I mean; I understand why national governments communicate this way; they (sort of) correctly want to avoid "panics", disrupting critical supply chains (food, fuel, medicine, etc). But seriously speaking.. do you really see a way of this being contained at this point? I simply don't.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      The reason I referenced China's numbers is that the number of active infections there is trending down. When that's the case, absent an excursion from the trend, a virus would eventually be wiped out. So, yes, if China's numbers are accurate (big if, but plausible if not probable), it does seem possible to stamp it out given sufficient application of resources and effort. There is also precedent for stamping out new viruses before they manage to take hold in the last two decades. That doesn't mean we'll be able to do it this time, but it's another bit of evidence that makes me suspect it's possible this time as well. The question is how long it will take before western governments get serious about stopping this thing. I do not believe the Chinese or Singaporeans are inherently better at this stuff than us. They're just more serious. If we get serious, we can accomplish similar feats.
      - joking 7y ago
        The question is also how many governments are going to go with full lock down like the Chinese government has gone.
        asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
        No doubt no doubt. Again, I'm not saying it's more likely than not at this point that we'll stamp it out. If we continue with our current behavior, we certainly won't. But I think there's a decent chance that as western countries are more and more affected by this disease, we will start changing our behavior. Hopefully it will not be too little too late.
- skmurphy 7y ago
  experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
  - tpmx 7y ago
    Singapore is excellent at this game. Most western (or asian) countries aren't even in the same league.
    - 34679 7y ago
      That's because they'll tie you up and beat you with a stick if you don't obey the rules. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore
egfx 7y ago
Commonly known as the butterfly effect or a sliding door https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment Watch the Sliding Doors movie. A curious movie where you can see how one little change dramatically alters the course of (Gwyneth Paltrow's) life in a vivid way. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120148/
jorblumesea 7y ago
The sheer contagiousness of COVID19 means that any quarantine measures would only slow down, but not stop the spread. If they stamped it out in SK this month, in a few months it would be back. Most health experts believe it's inevitable it spreads around the globe.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
empath75 7y ago
> it weren't for the selfish and shortsighted actions of one person Very unlikely. This thing’s R0 is high enough that it was never getting stopped.
- drclau 7y ago
  If stopping is not an option, delaying (or decreasing the speed of spreading) is the next best thing. Who is to say we won’t have a vaccine or some other treatment soon? Delaying means reducing potential deaths, suffering and economic impact.
jonplackett 7y ago
It’s crazy that the doctors could not force her to get tested and/or quarantine her. If this is the way we’re going to approach it in the west we’re screwed.

mikekchar 7y ago

Something seems strange. The woman was in a traffic accident on the 6th. She attended church services on the 9th and 16th. On the 17th she was confirmed to have the virus. Then "days later" "hundreds of people" become ill at the church. I'm under the impression that the virus has a long incubation period. As it isn't clear where she got the virus, isn't it likely that she isn't the original carrier, but contracted it from some other connection to the church? I mean it seems like the first opportunity to infect people was the 9th and something like 10 days later hundreds of people are ill.

alamortsubite 7y ago
> Then "days later" "hundreds of people" become ill at the church. Days later, South Korean health officials tested people thought to have been in contact with the patient, and hundreds of those tests came back positive. The article doesn't say whether any of those tested showed symptoms (of any illness); the incubation period really isn't relevant.
rriepe 7y ago
The time to having it/transmitting it is quick, like 2 or 3 days. Symptoms come later, on average 6 days after that. If you're dealing with a big group of people, 10 days is sort of a smoking gun here.
Erikun 7y ago
Median incubation time 4 days and interquartile range 2-7 in this study in the New England Journal of Medicine, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

brenden2 7y ago

I just opened the NYTimes front page and counted the number of occurrences of "coronavirus". I counted 15 total. The biggest winners from coronavirus are going to be those who sell fear (i.e., mainstream media). I also suppose anyone who was astute enough to open a large short position against the market in the past week or two will profit. I think we're only going to see an increase in panic and fear before things settle down. What real impact there will be on the world remains to be seen, I think it's too early to tell. Worst case, it seems like the virus will mostly harm those who are at risk of death, but healthy people will probably be okay.

wyxuan 7y ago
??????? This is way too critical of an approach to this issue. Coronavirus affects supply chains, schools and many other facets of our lives. If mainstream media didn’t report heavily on the risks that would be negligent. There have been many people who were healthy and have been infected, and also just because some people are at the risk of death; doesn’t means we should just cast off Coronavirus as a minor concern.
- brenden2 7y ago
  A lot of people die every year for a lot of reasons. Have a look at the CDC's death statistics[1]. One interesting thing to note is that flu vaccines are widely available and quite affordable, and yet many people die every year from the flu. Yes, the virus may increase the total number of deaths overall, but my armchair hypothesis is that fear and panic will do more long term damage than the virus itself. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
  - aurelwu 7y ago
    China has a flu every year, their reaction to the current outbreak is vastly different from a flu. That suggests that they consider it a bigger threat than the flu.
  - Spooks 7y ago

droithomme 7y ago

How do you infect 600 people during a 2 hr service if it's only transmitted through droplets and prolonged close contact.

drclau 7y ago
Transmission doesn’t occur only via droplets. The virus is supposed to survive for up to 9 days on surfaces/objects in normal conditions, and for up to 28-29 days at low temperatures: “Droplets transmitting coronaviruses only stay suspended in the air for a short time. Details for SARS-CoV-2 are not available as of 26 February 2020, and it is assumed that they are similar to other coronaviruses,[64] which may stay viable and contagious on a metal, glass or plastic surface for up to nine days at room temperature.[65] Disinfection of surfaces is possible with substances such as 62–71% ethanol applied for one minute.[65]“ — source: Wikipedia [0] What sort of rituals do these people follow? Do they have mass? Do they share maybe something like a spoon? Or touch the same objects on entering or leaving the place of prayer? References: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...

mmastrac 7y ago

Take this with a _huge_ grain of salt, but this article neglects to discuss the role of the Shincheonji followers - who have an interesting view on diseases and illness - in potentially spreading this disease. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea-cults-conservatives-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea...

ookblah 7y ago

Just some context too, that church isn't really representative of the "average" church there, but like a cult. Look up shincheonji. I feel their beliefs + how they conduct mass is contributing to this crazy increase. Something like 80% of the new cases today are linked to their members... and they have like 200k of them.