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This is a very silly post, especially for one claiming to be focused on being "science-oriented." Do you not understand incubation periods and exponents? > wha

This is a very silly post, especially for one claiming to be focused on being "science-oriented." Do you not understand incubation periods and exponents? > what is currently the probability of catching the virus Yes, that is the sudden cause for concern: we don't know. The incubation period is as long as 2 weeks before showing any symptoms, and there are now cases that have lost any connection to known vectors. To suggest that there isn't at least cause for worry is a bit ridiculous. We don't know how those people got it, we don't know how many other people got it, and we won't know for some time. Some spread is thought to be possible before any symptoms manifest, which paired with a long incubation period with no symptoms, and the exponential way in which people interact is potential cause for concern... From the CDC: > The virus that causes COVID-19 seems to be spreading easily and sustainably in the community (“community spread”) in some affected geographic areas. Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected.

yodsanklai 7y ago
> This is a very silly post For the sake of example, suppose I live in a country with 100 millions inhabitants, with 100 reported cases. Suppose that there are currently 100 times more cases. What do you think is the probability to get close enough to one of these cases to get infected? how does it compare with something like having a car accident, or getting complications for the common seasonal flu? This virus is going to be a concern. A rough estimation tells us that number of cases increases tenfold every 10 to 15 days, depending on containment measures. It could peak at 10-20% of the population. We also expect the mortality rate to be something between 0.5% and 1%. So yes, there will be causalities, and we'll need to be especially vigilant in the near future, especially April and May. But right now, the probability to be infected if virtually zero. There is also not much we can do besides following CDC recommendations. The virus is going to spread no matter what.
- ralusek 7y ago
  Car accidents don't increase in incidence exponentially in a matter of weeks. The chances of being infected right now are kind of irrelevant to this discussion; I don't see very many people panicking that they're necessarily concerned about this very moment, so I think you're arguing against a strawman. People are simply extrapolating a bit, and the trajectory is giving some cause for concern.
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yodsanklai 7y ago

> This is a very silly post For the sake of example, suppose I live in a country with 100 millions inhabitants, with 100 reported cases. Suppose that there are currently 100 times more cases. What do you think is the probability to get close enough to one of these cases to get infected? how does it compare with something like having a car accident, or getting complications for the common seasonal flu? This virus is going to be a concern. A rough estimation tells us that number of cases increases tenfold every 10 to 15 days, depending on containment measures. It could peak at 10-20% of the population. We also expect the mortality rate to be something between 0.5% and 1%. So yes, there will be causalities, and we'll need to be especially vigilant in the near future, especially April and May. But right now, the probability to be infected if virtually zero. There is also not much we can do besides following CDC recommendations. The virus is going to spread no matter what.

ralusek 7y ago
Car accidents don't increase in incidence exponentially in a matter of weeks. The chances of being infected right now are kind of irrelevant to this discussion; I don't see very many people panicking that they're necessarily concerned about this very moment, so I think you're arguing against a strawman. People are simply extrapolating a bit, and the trajectory is giving some cause for concern.
- deleted 7y ago
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