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Even this year… 16,000 people have died from the flu so far, and this is a particularly mild year, save for the high amount of childhood deaths. COVID-19 seems

Even this year… 16,000 people have died from the flu so far, and this is a particularly mild year, save for the high amount of childhood deaths. COVID-19 seems to be almost completely manufactured hysteria based on fuzzy math which includes using very low estimates of the number of infected to artificially increase the fatality rate.

mikeyouse 7y ago
When all of the top epidemiologists, public health officials, and physicians from around the globe are sounding the alarm to take something seriously - it's probably a good idea to take it seriously. If it turns out that Covid-19 is a dud in terms of impact, it will be because of not in spite of the substantial steps people are taking to be prepared.
- themagician 7y ago
  All the headlines seem menacing but then I look at the data and stand back and say WTF. It already is a dud. Relatively speaking, very few people die from this. 80%+ of confirmed cases are so mild you have to wonder why they were even tested. It seems to not spread as fast as the flu. No children have died. Basically, it’s been three month and 2,000 people over 70 have died globally. More people died from the flu LAST WEEK IN THE US ALONE.
  - nodamage 7y ago
    Yes more people have died from the flu so far, but Covid-19 was only officially identified last month and is growing exponentially. Based on the studies we have seen so far, it is more contagious than the flu (R0 of 2.2 vs 1.3), and significantly more deadly (fatality rate of 2.3% vs 0.1%). We're still in the early stages of this and it is continuing to spread.
    - themagician 7y ago
      It is not growing exponentially. Think about what exponents are and what an exponential curve looks like.
      - mlyle 7y ago
        Look at the ex-China infected graph here, and click the "logarithmic scale" toggle. Looks pretty close to a straight line to me. https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ China's growth in case count has slowed down. Whether that's because of massive control efforts (literally welding people in homes, etc), or because of inaccurate reporting / missed cases, or both-- is unknown.
      - nodamage 7y ago
        Looking only at the total numbers paints a misleading picture. It is no longer growing exponentially in China because they have quarantined millions of people. It was growing exponentially prior to the quarantine. It is growing exponentially in other countries with recent outbreaks. Look at the growth charts for South Korea, Italy, and Iran. While it is good news that the growth can be contained via quarantine, it is incredibly misleading to claim "this is just like the flu". The flu doesn't require the government to force people to stay locked up in their homes in order to prevent outbreaks.
        themagician 7y ago
        You are correct in that it’s not just like the flu. It’s much less severe and not as trendy. You can’t sell the flu. This you can sell.
        DanBC 7y ago
        It's maybe ten times more lethal than flu, and there's no vaccine for it at the moment.
        themagician 7y ago
        There is little evidence of that other than people manipulating the numbers to favor that outcome. Even within China, Outside of Hubei the fatality rate is just 0.4%. This 10x nonsense is so utterly bogus. People literally can not think for themselves anymore. Just read and regurgitate FUD.
  - empath75 7y ago
    Multiply those flu numbers times ten and that’s where we’ll be in a year.
  - mlyle 7y ago
    If I sold you a car for $1.00 the first day, $2.00 the first day, $4.00 the third day, ... It would look like a pretty good bargain the first few days compared to what people typically pay for cars. Eventually, on day 14, you start to reconsider how good the deal is when you make a $16,384 payment and face making a $32,768 one tomorrow. If COVID-19 spreads exponentially, it will result in basically everyone getting it. Yes, it will take a little while (and maybe spring/summer will do enough to put on the brakes to let us have more treatment options). The fatality percentage, means if everyone gets it, it will be like several years of flu concentrated over a year or two. Besides that, it's likely to overwhelm public health systems and have societal/economic consequences from the amount of sickness and attempts to contain the virus.
    - themagician 7y ago
      It’s so weird to read comments like this. It’s like people can only parrot media FUD and have lost all ability to think for themselves.
      - mlyle 7y ago
        Eh, I've spent like 15 hours fitting various models to the different datasets of case counts and seeing quadratic growth under containment measures some places and what looks like exponential growth others... Maybe that's "parroting media FUD."
        themagician 7y ago
        Sounds like it.
ALittleLight 7y ago
If major world governments started saying they were about to nuke one another it would not be valid to say "Why are you so worried about nukes? Car accidents killed a million people last year and nobody died due to nuclear weapons." A pandemic from a novel virus is a black swan event that is not well represented by looking at recent statistics. The risk is not the recent past, but the possible future where this infects a significant percentage of the world's population, overwhelms our healthcare system, and kills millions if not more.

mikeyouse 7y ago

When all of the top epidemiologists, public health officials, and physicians from around the globe are sounding the alarm to take something seriously - it's probably a good idea to take it seriously. If it turns out that Covid-19 is a dud in terms of impact, it will be because of not in spite of the substantial steps people are taking to be prepared.

themagician 7y ago
All the headlines seem menacing but then I look at the data and stand back and say WTF. It already is a dud. Relatively speaking, very few people die from this. 80%+ of confirmed cases are so mild you have to wonder why they were even tested. It seems to not spread as fast as the flu. No children have died. Basically, it’s been three month and 2,000 people over 70 have died globally. More people died from the flu LAST WEEK IN THE US ALONE.
- nodamage 7y ago
  Yes more people have died from the flu so far, but Covid-19 was only officially identified last month and is growing exponentially. Based on the studies we have seen so far, it is more contagious than the flu (R0 of 2.2 vs 1.3), and significantly more deadly (fatality rate of 2.3% vs 0.1%). We're still in the early stages of this and it is continuing to spread.
  - themagician 7y ago
    It is not growing exponentially. Think about what exponents are and what an exponential curve looks like.
    - mlyle 7y ago
      Look at the ex-China infected graph here, and click the "logarithmic scale" toggle. Looks pretty close to a straight line to me. https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ China's growth in case count has slowed down. Whether that's because of massive control efforts (literally welding people in homes, etc), or because of inaccurate reporting / missed cases, or both-- is unknown.
    - nodamage 7y ago
      Looking only at the total numbers paints a misleading picture. It is no longer growing exponentially in China because they have quarantined millions of people. It was growing exponentially prior to the quarantine. It is growing exponentially in other countries with recent outbreaks. Look at the growth charts for South Korea, Italy, and Iran. While it is good news that the growth can be contained via quarantine, it is incredibly misleading to claim "this is just like the flu". The flu doesn't require the government to force people to stay locked up in their homes in order to prevent outbreaks.
      - themagician 7y ago
        You are correct in that it’s not just like the flu. It’s much less severe and not as trendy. You can’t sell the flu. This you can sell.
        DanBC 7y ago
        It's maybe ten times more lethal than flu, and there's no vaccine for it at the moment.
        themagician 7y ago
        There is little evidence of that other than people manipulating the numbers to favor that outcome. Even within China, Outside of Hubei the fatality rate is just 0.4%. This 10x nonsense is so utterly bogus. People literally can not think for themselves anymore. Just read and regurgitate FUD.
- empath75 7y ago
  Multiply those flu numbers times ten and that’s where we’ll be in a year.
- mlyle 7y ago
  If I sold you a car for $1.00 the first day, $2.00 the first day, $4.00 the third day, ... It would look like a pretty good bargain the first few days compared to what people typically pay for cars. Eventually, on day 14, you start to reconsider how good the deal is when you make a $16,384 payment and face making a $32,768 one tomorrow. If COVID-19 spreads exponentially, it will result in basically everyone getting it. Yes, it will take a little while (and maybe spring/summer will do enough to put on the brakes to let us have more treatment options). The fatality percentage, means if everyone gets it, it will be like several years of flu concentrated over a year or two. Besides that, it's likely to overwhelm public health systems and have societal/economic consequences from the amount of sickness and attempts to contain the virus.
  - themagician 7y ago
    It’s so weird to read comments like this. It’s like people can only parrot media FUD and have lost all ability to think for themselves.
    - mlyle 7y ago
      Eh, I've spent like 15 hours fitting various models to the different datasets of case counts and seeing quadratic growth under containment measures some places and what looks like exponential growth others... Maybe that's "parroting media FUD."
      - themagician 7y ago
        Sounds like it.

ALittleLight 7y ago

If major world governments started saying they were about to nuke one another it would not be valid to say "Why are you so worried about nukes? Car accidents killed a million people last year and nobody died due to nuclear weapons." A pandemic from a novel virus is a black swan event that is not well represented by looking at recent statistics. The risk is not the recent past, but the possible future where this infects a significant percentage of the world's population, overwhelms our healthcare system, and kills millions if not more.