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More people died from the Spanish Flu than from combat in WW1 and WW2 combined. That was the first global pandemic due to soldiers traveling around the world. W

More people died from the Spanish Flu than from combat in WW1 and WW2 combined. That was the first global pandemic due to soldiers traveling around the world. What's a modern version going to look like in an era of airplane travel?

themagician 7y ago
25x more people died from the flu in 2018 in the United States alone then have died from COVID-19 globally.
- mlyle 7y ago
  ... so far.
  - themagician 7y ago
    Even this year… 16,000 people have died from the flu so far, and this is a particularly mild year, save for the high amount of childhood deaths. COVID-19 seems to be almost completely manufactured hysteria based on fuzzy math which includes using very low estimates of the number of infected to artificially increase the fatality rate.
    - mikeyouse 7y ago
      When all of the top epidemiologists, public health officials, and physicians from around the globe are sounding the alarm to take something seriously - it's probably a good idea to take it seriously. If it turns out that Covid-19 is a dud in terms of impact, it will be because of not in spite of the substantial steps people are taking to be prepared.
      - themagician 7y ago
        All the headlines seem menacing but then I look at the data and stand back and say WTF. It already is a dud. Relatively speaking, very few people die from this. 80%+ of confirmed cases are so mild you have to wonder why they were even tested. It seems to not spread as fast as the flu. No children have died. Basically, it’s been three month and 2,000 people over 70 have died globally. More people died from the flu LAST WEEK IN THE US ALONE.
        nodamage 7y ago
        Yes more people have died from the flu so far, but Covid-19 was only officially identified last month and is growing exponentially. Based on the studies we have seen so far, it is more contagious than the flu (R0 of 2.2 vs 1.3), and significantly more deadly (fatality rate of 2.3% vs 0.1%). We're still in the early stages of this and it is continuing to spread.
        themagician 7y ago
        It is not growing exponentially. Think about what exponents are and what an exponential curve looks like.
        mlyle 7y ago
        Look at the ex-China infected graph here, and click the "logarithmic scale" toggle. Looks pretty close to a straight line to me. https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ China's growth in case count has slowed down. Whether that's because of massive control efforts (literally welding people in homes, etc), or because of inaccurate reporting / missed cases, or both-- is unknown.
        nodamage 7y ago
        Looking only at the total numbers paints a misleading picture. It is no longer growing exponentially in China because they have quarantined millions of people. It was growing exponentially prior to the quarantine. It is growing exponentially in other countries with recent outbreaks. Look at the growth charts for South Korea, Italy, and Iran. While it is good news that the growth can be contained via quarantine, it is incredibly misleading to claim "this is just like the flu". The flu doesn't require the government to force people to stay locked up in their homes in order to prevent outbreaks.
        themagician 7y ago
        You are correct in that it’s not just like the flu. It’s much less severe and not as trendy. You can’t sell the flu. This you can sell.
    - ALittleLight 7y ago
      If major world governments started saying they were about to nuke one another it would not be valid to say "Why are you so worried about nukes? Car accidents killed a million people last year and nobody died due to nuclear weapons." A pandemic from a novel virus is a black swan event that is not well represented by looking at recent statistics. The risk is not the recent past, but the possible future where this infects a significant percentage of the world's population, overwhelms our healthcare system, and kills millions if not more.
HenryKissinger 7y ago
The Chinese Flu.
stewbrew 7y ago
People died from the Spanish flu because they were malnourished and because the general conditions were bad. The Spanish flu would be nothing like that if it happened today ... In Europe at least. Some interesting read: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2018.00343/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2018.0034...
- jnbiche 7y ago
  Famously, the disease hit soldiers in basic training hard before they were deployed. These were not malnourished people. It's entirely likely that malnourished populations suffered greatly under Spanish Flu, but it's clear that completely healthy young adults were highly vulnerable to dying from the disease.
  - stewbrew 7y ago
    Who was healthy 1918? Aristocrats and generals maybe. There was still a World War going on when it started.
- chillacy 7y ago
  That article doesn't seem to support "because they were malnourished" at all... it correctly points out that the 1918 pandemic was unique in having high mortality among the young (under 30) due to "Lack of pre-existing virus-specific and/or cross-reactive antibodies and cellular immunity in children and young adults" which doesn't seem to be the case with the current virus which seems to affect mainly the elderly.
  - stewbrew 7y ago
    It's down the list/text. But please keep in mind: this happened 1918.

themagician 7y ago

25x more people died from the flu in 2018 in the United States alone then have died from COVID-19 globally.

mlyle 7y ago
... so far.
- themagician 7y ago
  Even this year… 16,000 people have died from the flu so far, and this is a particularly mild year, save for the high amount of childhood deaths. COVID-19 seems to be almost completely manufactured hysteria based on fuzzy math which includes using very low estimates of the number of infected to artificially increase the fatality rate.
  - mikeyouse 7y ago
    When all of the top epidemiologists, public health officials, and physicians from around the globe are sounding the alarm to take something seriously - it's probably a good idea to take it seriously. If it turns out that Covid-19 is a dud in terms of impact, it will be because of not in spite of the substantial steps people are taking to be prepared.
    - themagician 7y ago
      All the headlines seem menacing but then I look at the data and stand back and say WTF. It already is a dud. Relatively speaking, very few people die from this. 80%+ of confirmed cases are so mild you have to wonder why they were even tested. It seems to not spread as fast as the flu. No children have died. Basically, it’s been three month and 2,000 people over 70 have died globally. More people died from the flu LAST WEEK IN THE US ALONE.
      - nodamage 7y ago
        Yes more people have died from the flu so far, but Covid-19 was only officially identified last month and is growing exponentially. Based on the studies we have seen so far, it is more contagious than the flu (R0 of 2.2 vs 1.3), and significantly more deadly (fatality rate of 2.3% vs 0.1%). We're still in the early stages of this and it is continuing to spread.
        themagician 7y ago
        It is not growing exponentially. Think about what exponents are and what an exponential curve looks like.
        mlyle 7y ago
        Look at the ex-China infected graph here, and click the "logarithmic scale" toggle. Looks pretty close to a straight line to me. https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ https://www.coronaviruschart.com/ China's growth in case count has slowed down. Whether that's because of massive control efforts (literally welding people in homes, etc), or because of inaccurate reporting / missed cases, or both-- is unknown.
        nodamage 7y ago
        Looking only at the total numbers paints a misleading picture. It is no longer growing exponentially in China because they have quarantined millions of people. It was growing exponentially prior to the quarantine. It is growing exponentially in other countries with recent outbreaks. Look at the growth charts for South Korea, Italy, and Iran. While it is good news that the growth can be contained via quarantine, it is incredibly misleading to claim "this is just like the flu". The flu doesn't require the government to force people to stay locked up in their homes in order to prevent outbreaks.
        themagician 7y ago
        You are correct in that it’s not just like the flu. It’s much less severe and not as trendy. You can’t sell the flu. This you can sell.
  - ALittleLight 7y ago
    If major world governments started saying they were about to nuke one another it would not be valid to say "Why are you so worried about nukes? Car accidents killed a million people last year and nobody died due to nuclear weapons." A pandemic from a novel virus is a black swan event that is not well represented by looking at recent statistics. The risk is not the recent past, but the possible future where this infects a significant percentage of the world's population, overwhelms our healthcare system, and kills millions if not more.

HenryKissinger 7y ago

The Chinese Flu.

stewbrew 7y ago

People died from the Spanish flu because they were malnourished and because the general conditions were bad. The Spanish flu would be nothing like that if it happened today ... In Europe at least. Some interesting read: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2018.00343/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2018.0034...

jnbiche 7y ago
Famously, the disease hit soldiers in basic training hard before they were deployed. These were not malnourished people. It's entirely likely that malnourished populations suffered greatly under Spanish Flu, but it's clear that completely healthy young adults were highly vulnerable to dying from the disease.
- stewbrew 7y ago
  Who was healthy 1918? Aristocrats and generals maybe. There was still a World War going on when it started.
chillacy 7y ago
That article doesn't seem to support "because they were malnourished" at all... it correctly points out that the 1918 pandemic was unique in having high mortality among the young (under 30) due to "Lack of pre-existing virus-specific and/or cross-reactive antibodies and cellular immunity in children and young adults" which doesn't seem to be the case with the current virus which seems to affect mainly the elderly.
- stewbrew 7y ago
  It's down the list/text. But please keep in mind: this happened 1918.