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But what about selection bias? The mortality rate is an upper limit at the moment. Is it just wishful thinking that maybe in reality 100 times more people are i
by tobias2014 7y ago
But what about selection bias? The mortality rate is an upper limit at the moment. Is it just wishful thinking that maybe in reality 100 times more people are infected but show no to very little symptoms? The number of people that can be tested is very limited, so only the cases are tested which are above a certain threshold in severity.
- scarmig 7y agoEvery person infected on the Diamond Princess was identified (~800 people, older cohort than the general population), and 6 people have died so far, with optimal care. That's a strong indicator that it's much worse than the usual flu, though hardly Captain Trips.
- tobias2014 7y agoValid point! This is indeed already much higher, and only sets a lower bound. So we should keep an eye on this well controlled sample. So we have a lower bound of somewhere around 1% and an upper bound of somewhere around 7% ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ) at the moment. Not very reassuring.
- jacobkg 7y agoI just finally read the The Stand a couple months ago. Not the best timing in retrospect. Also had just started playing Pandemic Legacy, but I had to stop when the cover image of the game started looking the same as the front page of the newspaper.