4 ms·

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the J

by zaroth 7y ago

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively. — New England Journal of Medicine, Feb 28, 2020 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=rec...

zachguo 7y ago
Once the hospitals are overloaded, fatality would be way higher. In China, fatality rate in the epicenter Hubei province is more than 4%, while it's less than 1% for the rest of the provinces.
senordevnyc 7y ago
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. Well sure, if one assumes that, you can easily make yourself feel better. But is there a specific reason to believe this? The widespread contact tracing and testing in SK, Singapore, and Italy are not comforting. If there was a huge number of asymptomatic cases, wouldn’t they be finding them?
- zaroth 7y ago
  The point is that the fatality rate depends on the denominator chosen. Choosing a denominator of only people with COVID who go on to develop pneumonia, results in a rate of 2%. Choosing a denominator of all people with laboratory confirmed cases of COVID, results in a rate of 1.4%. Clearly a denominator of “everyone who was infected with COVID” is larger than the denominator of “everyone with a laboratory confirmed case”. The question is, how much larger? The number of reports of asymptomatic and mild cases which are asked not to go to a hospital are specific reasons why the true fatality rate is less than 1.4% and may be considerably less than 1%.
  - senordevnyc 7y ago
    The number of reports of asymptomatic and mild cases which are asked not to go to a hospital are specific reasons why the true fatality rate is less than 1.4% and may be considerably less than 1% Total speculation. There is no reliable data on how many uncounted people there are. I've been watching your comments on here for days and it's clear you want this to be overblown, as we all do, but you're intentionally twisting the uncertainty in the evidence and data to try and downplay things. Things could turn out to be worse than we think, not better. Look at the death rates in Italy and Iran. Not to mention how high hospitalization rates could overwhelm our medical infrastructure and push the mortality rate even higher. In short, unless you're a working expert in a relevant field, there's exactly zero reason to listen to you. I'll continue to listen to what health officials are saying, and watch what they're doing. And when I do that, it's pretty clear that you and others like you who claim this is overblown and no big deal are almost certainly wrong.
    - mercer 7y ago
      > I've been watching your comments on here for days and it's clear you want this to be overblown, as we all do, but you're intentionally twisting the uncertainty in the evidence and data to try and downplay things. Agreed. There are a few users on here who are almost 'hysterically' downplaying things and it's fascinating. I imagine these are the types of people who would get busy rearranging deck chairs as the Titanic went down, so to speak.
    - zaroth 7y ago
      > In short, unless you're a working expert in a relevant field FYI, the italicized portion was a quote from the New England Journal of Medicine from a working expert in a relevant field.

by zaroth 7y ago

zachguo 7y ago

Once the hospitals are overloaded, fatality would be way higher. In China, fatality rate in the epicenter Hubei province is more than 4%, while it's less than 1% for the rest of the provinces.

senordevnyc 7y ago

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. Well sure, if one assumes that, you can easily make yourself feel better. But is there a specific reason to believe this? The widespread contact tracing and testing in SK, Singapore, and Italy are not comforting. If there was a huge number of asymptomatic cases, wouldn’t they be finding them?

zaroth 7y ago
The point is that the fatality rate depends on the denominator chosen. Choosing a denominator of only people with COVID who go on to develop pneumonia, results in a rate of 2%. Choosing a denominator of all people with laboratory confirmed cases of COVID, results in a rate of 1.4%. Clearly a denominator of “everyone who was infected with COVID” is larger than the denominator of “everyone with a laboratory confirmed case”. The question is, how much larger? The number of reports of asymptomatic and mild cases which are asked not to go to a hospital are specific reasons why the true fatality rate is less than 1.4% and may be considerably less than 1%.
- senordevnyc 7y ago
  The number of reports of asymptomatic and mild cases which are asked not to go to a hospital are specific reasons why the true fatality rate is less than 1.4% and may be considerably less than 1% Total speculation. There is no reliable data on how many uncounted people there are. I've been watching your comments on here for days and it's clear you want this to be overblown, as we all do, but you're intentionally twisting the uncertainty in the evidence and data to try and downplay things. Things could turn out to be worse than we think, not better. Look at the death rates in Italy and Iran. Not to mention how high hospitalization rates could overwhelm our medical infrastructure and push the mortality rate even higher. In short, unless you're a working expert in a relevant field, there's exactly zero reason to listen to you. I'll continue to listen to what health officials are saying, and watch what they're doing. And when I do that, it's pretty clear that you and others like you who claim this is overblown and no big deal are almost certainly wrong.
  - mercer 7y ago
    > I've been watching your comments on here for days and it's clear you want this to be overblown, as we all do, but you're intentionally twisting the uncertainty in the evidence and data to try and downplay things. Agreed. There are a few users on here who are almost 'hysterically' downplaying things and it's fascinating. I imagine these are the types of people who would get busy rearranging deck chairs as the Titanic went down, so to speak.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    > In short, unless you're a working expert in a relevant field FYI, the italicized portion was a quote from the New England Journal of Medicine from a working expert in a relevant field.