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This is an unprecedented global geopolitical event that is already reshaping politics. The market is down some 15% in 3 days. The Chinese Century has been pushe

This is an unprecedented global geopolitical event that is already reshaping politics. The market is down some 15% in 3 days. The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other governments realize the danger of excessive offshoring. Manufacturing may return to the U.S. Iran is crippled and blaming the virus on the U.S. Borders the world over are closing and will continue to close and you may see a rise in pro immigration control sentiment. Nothing is arguably more appropriate for HN right now than this. The time to keep your head in the sand and go about daily life blissfully has long passed. Now is the time to brace for as the CDC put it severe disruptions. If the virus continues to spread as it has in Italy, China, Iran, it will affect every one of us.

pbourke 7y ago
> The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other government's realize the danger of excessive offshoring. Remains to be seen. I think they have pulled off an enormous feat in slowing the virus as they have. Maybe China comes out of this relatively better than some other nations. The cone of uncertainty is a mile wide.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  That's a fair point, the rate of increase in cases in China is now lower than the rate of increase in some countries. At the same time, I think that any numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt, both on the up and the downside. Not all countries test suspected cases in large quantities, reporting is inconsistent between countries and over time from single countries. Some countries are still in 'head in the sand' mode and asymptomatic spreading could translate in many more cases than are registered. The ratios of cases:deceased and recovered:deceased are converging, which at least reduces the error bars around some of the more important numerical parameters of this particular virus. The most important thing to realize is that R0 is not a hard attribute of the virus but something that we have some control over. By reducing R0 through the application of best practices we can stretch the onset of the peak and hence reduce the number of fatalities and the number of people that end up in a critical condition. Some examples of best practices: - good personal hygiene, in other words: wash your hands - don't travel if you don't have to - don't touch your face all the time (very hard, subconscious) - if you think you have 'a' bug don't go to work and stay indoors until you've been tested (call the doctor, they should have a protocol) - avoid crowds The next few weeks will be crucial and will have an enormous effect on how we (collectively) will look back at this in a few months time. I feel super sorry for everybody living in countries that do not have free healthcare, the virus will have a disproportional effect on people of different wealth status but in countries without free healthcare that effect will be vastly amplified.
  - wolco 7y ago
    Why would you feel sorry for everyone living in countries without free healthcare? As you mentioned wealth status would allow the wealthier to get care plus the fear of the spread will provide emergency funding to the poor (only for this). Plus can take supplies from global market by overpaying reducing supplies to other countries. I feel sorry for smaller nations who rely on bigger countries for medical supplies/medicine as supplies reduce and become a national issue.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      Because in lots of those countries people will not be able to afford the care they need.
- taiwanboy 7y ago
  I am not sure they have slowed down the virus - coronavirus have been shown to reappear in recovered patients in China (prob due to the unsanitary conditions in cities) - they have welded people in their homes. How would they have tested these folks? - 800 million people are under quarantine. Again, how do they test all these people? Plus it’s been shown that family members locked in a tight space transmit the disease to each other. And the entire family dies off.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    You're on the right track, though I don't think the welding was common. Chinese neighborhoods are under a type of lockdown where there are some 4 taxis per 10-50k people that are designated for goods and extreme emergency cases. One of the many ways the government makes the numbers look smaller. They are playing straight out of the old Soviet playbook. Their party is literally an incarnation of the CCCP. Do not treat this country as you would a democratic first world nation - it's culture is nothing of the sort, for better or worse.

pbourke 7y ago

> The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other government's realize the danger of excessive offshoring. Remains to be seen. I think they have pulled off an enormous feat in slowing the virus as they have. Maybe China comes out of this relatively better than some other nations. The cone of uncertainty is a mile wide.

jacquesm 7y ago
That's a fair point, the rate of increase in cases in China is now lower than the rate of increase in some countries. At the same time, I think that any numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt, both on the up and the downside. Not all countries test suspected cases in large quantities, reporting is inconsistent between countries and over time from single countries. Some countries are still in 'head in the sand' mode and asymptomatic spreading could translate in many more cases than are registered. The ratios of cases:deceased and recovered:deceased are converging, which at least reduces the error bars around some of the more important numerical parameters of this particular virus. The most important thing to realize is that R0 is not a hard attribute of the virus but something that we have some control over. By reducing R0 through the application of best practices we can stretch the onset of the peak and hence reduce the number of fatalities and the number of people that end up in a critical condition. Some examples of best practices: - good personal hygiene, in other words: wash your hands - don't travel if you don't have to - don't touch your face all the time (very hard, subconscious) - if you think you have 'a' bug don't go to work and stay indoors until you've been tested (call the doctor, they should have a protocol) - avoid crowds The next few weeks will be crucial and will have an enormous effect on how we (collectively) will look back at this in a few months time. I feel super sorry for everybody living in countries that do not have free healthcare, the virus will have a disproportional effect on people of different wealth status but in countries without free healthcare that effect will be vastly amplified.
- wolco 7y ago
  Why would you feel sorry for everyone living in countries without free healthcare? As you mentioned wealth status would allow the wealthier to get care plus the fear of the spread will provide emergency funding to the poor (only for this). Plus can take supplies from global market by overpaying reducing supplies to other countries. I feel sorry for smaller nations who rely on bigger countries for medical supplies/medicine as supplies reduce and become a national issue.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Because in lots of those countries people will not be able to afford the care they need.
taiwanboy 7y ago
I am not sure they have slowed down the virus - coronavirus have been shown to reappear in recovered patients in China (prob due to the unsanitary conditions in cities) - they have welded people in their homes. How would they have tested these folks? - 800 million people are under quarantine. Again, how do they test all these people? Plus it’s been shown that family members locked in a tight space transmit the disease to each other. And the entire family dies off.
- allovernow 7y ago
  You're on the right track, though I don't think the welding was common. Chinese neighborhoods are under a type of lockdown where there are some 4 taxis per 10-50k people that are designated for goods and extreme emergency cases. One of the many ways the government makes the numbers look smaller. They are playing straight out of the old Soviet playbook. Their party is literally an incarnation of the CCCP. Do not treat this country as you would a democratic first world nation - it's culture is nothing of the sort, for better or worse.