4 ms·

> "We do not see evidence as yet that the virus is spreading freely in communities," the WHO director-general said. No longer true: CDC Confirms Possible Insta

by DenisM 7y ago

> "We do not see evidence as yet that the virus is spreading freely in communities," the WHO director-general said. No longer true: CDC Confirms Possible Instance of Community Spread of COVID-19 in U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0226-Covid-19-spread.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0226-Covid-19-sprea...

bhouston 7y ago
Only 2 so far. I think there is a chance the us can avoid significant spread.
- yfzhou 7y ago
  The question is 2 out of how many tests? If this page https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html is to be believed, only about a dozen tests were done over the past two days because it was 445 tested on Wednesday and we have 2 hits.
- kansface 7y ago
  To the best of my knowledge (and not trying my to incite panic), there are only 200 test kits in the entire state of CA. The official numbers are meaningless given the inability to actually test. Why do you believe the US will be able to quarantine the entire Bay Area?
  - altcognito 7y ago
    There are no concentrations of flu and respiratory problems according to hospital case managers. Clusters aren’t likely to stay hidden for very long, even without kits. I don’t think the goal is to quarantine entire regions, just to slow it down by limiting groups of people in affected areas.
    - xiphias2 7y ago
      Of course not. Did you see the article of a person being billed $3000 for a coronavirus test? Testing it should be free (based on symptoms) if US wants to stop the disease from spreading.
      - _bxg1 7y ago
        One of the joys of lacking a real healthcare system
    - Terretta 7y ago
      On the question of use of tests, and detection in individuals much less clusters, this note is from /r/AskNYC this evening: Hello, Just giving a heads up to what I and my doctor both considered a very fucked up situation. I just spent a week in Japan, a country at high risk for COVID-19. I wore a mask and essentially tried to stay away from most touristy places (not my first time there), but trains and stations are still packed with people, so there's really not much you can do. On arriving back to America (3 days ago), I developed a 102F fever, coughing, and aches. I went to a local hospital in Brooklyn's ER. I informed them of my travel, they provided me a mask, and redirected me to a private room and followed infection protocols (full face covers, gloves, aprons, etc.). I had a chest x-ray and testing for flu/cold/pneumonia/and about 25 other viruses. They all came back negative. At this point, the hospital called the CDC requesting permission to perform the COVID-19 testing. The CDC denied the request on the ground that I did not have the most life-threatening symptoms: chest pain and shortness of breath. According to everything I read it's very likely not to have these symptoms if you're in your 30's and relatively healthy. And... that was that. They discharged me, said I don't have Corona virus, since they didn't test me for it, and said I can ride the subway, return to work, do whatever I want. Of course my doctor disagreed. She said I should treat myself as if I am infected. My partner is currently staying in a nearby hotel since we live in a studio apartment. I've performed a self-quarantine for 14 days. Fortunately I can work from home and my partner can deliver me groceries if I run out. But I don't think that many people are aware of the fact that they're actively not testing people for COVID-19, even people who have travel history to high-risk places. Do I still have symptoms? Yes, Fever is current 101.6 (as of a couple hours ago), aches, and a cough that is persistent. I'm taking Tylenol and drinking a lot of water. Do I just have the flu? Well, not according to my screens I don't. Is this real? It's as real as I said it is. I returned from Japan. I'm sick. The symptoms are similar to COVID19 and I was refused testing. You can believe whatever you want, I don't care. A channel NY1 reporter reached out to connect with the individual, so perhaps if validated, it won’t “stay hidden very long”. And to your point, it’s not a cluster. But how would you have a cluster if each given patient is handled this way? The individual case is less interesting than the protocol. EDIT: Now reported by media: https://abc7ny.com/5974999/ https://abc7ny.com/5974999/
      - thepangolino 7y ago
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    We have Roche, Stanford can make kits from stock, etc. The new community case in El Camino hospital was tested locally and quickly. That’s 7.0 miles from where I am, so of course I’m concerned.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      Similar situation here. Nearest confirmed case is about 10 km from here, so I'm assuming that it is here already in one or more people.
- dan_quixote 7y ago
  Based on what exactly? This thing seems to surprise us daily with its ability to spread undetected. And the US is woefully unprepared to administer tests. I fully expect the numbers to sharply rise right along with our ability to test over the next few weeks.
beamatronic 7y ago
The WHO has no credibility with me. I don’t believe anything they say anymore.
- humaniania 7y ago
  That seems pretty extreme to me. Who else is a better authority?
  - beamatronic 7y ago
    The CDC The Santa Clara County health department
    - sk0g 7y ago
      Why should anyone in 195-1 countries care about either of those?
      - beamatronic 7y ago
        Because if anyone took this seriously (shelter in place worldwide 1 month ago) we would not be in this situation.
        recursive 7y ago
        > Because if anyone took this seriously You mean if everyone took this seriously. Which is obviously a lot more difficult. It would probably not be possible to get everyone to agree that the sky is blue or 2+2=4.
        jacquesm 7y ago
        There was a point in time where a single city could have made that difference. Then there was a point in time where single province could have made that difference. Then a country. Now none of this matters anymore but it is still an interesting question: was the virus known and detected at a point in time where it could have been contained? From the long incubation time my gut feeling is that it probably couldn't have been. International airtravel speeds things up, it also didn't make a difference in 1918 when intercontinental traffic was by boat. Lindbergh didn't make his flight until 1927.
cbsks 7y ago
Here's the actual WHO situation report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200228-sitrep-39-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The US is shown has having "local transmission". "Community transmission" is defined as "the inability to relate confirmed cases through chains of transmission for a large number of cases, or by increasing positive tests through routine screening of sentinel samples". Maybe this is just a terminology issue... "spreading freely in communities" could refer to "community transmission" defined above.

by DenisM 7y ago

bhouston 7y ago

Only 2 so far. I think there is a chance the us can avoid significant spread.

yfzhou 7y ago
The question is 2 out of how many tests? If this page https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html is to be believed, only about a dozen tests were done over the past two days because it was 445 tested on Wednesday and we have 2 hits.
kansface 7y ago
To the best of my knowledge (and not trying my to incite panic), there are only 200 test kits in the entire state of CA. The official numbers are meaningless given the inability to actually test. Why do you believe the US will be able to quarantine the entire Bay Area?
- altcognito 7y ago
  There are no concentrations of flu and respiratory problems according to hospital case managers. Clusters aren’t likely to stay hidden for very long, even without kits. I don’t think the goal is to quarantine entire regions, just to slow it down by limiting groups of people in affected areas.
  - xiphias2 7y ago
    Of course not. Did you see the article of a person being billed $3000 for a coronavirus test? Testing it should be free (based on symptoms) if US wants to stop the disease from spreading.
    - _bxg1 7y ago
      One of the joys of lacking a real healthcare system
  - Terretta 7y ago
    On the question of use of tests, and detection in individuals much less clusters, this note is from /r/AskNYC this evening: Hello, Just giving a heads up to what I and my doctor both considered a very fucked up situation. I just spent a week in Japan, a country at high risk for COVID-19. I wore a mask and essentially tried to stay away from most touristy places (not my first time there), but trains and stations are still packed with people, so there's really not much you can do. On arriving back to America (3 days ago), I developed a 102F fever, coughing, and aches. I went to a local hospital in Brooklyn's ER. I informed them of my travel, they provided me a mask, and redirected me to a private room and followed infection protocols (full face covers, gloves, aprons, etc.). I had a chest x-ray and testing for flu/cold/pneumonia/and about 25 other viruses. They all came back negative. At this point, the hospital called the CDC requesting permission to perform the COVID-19 testing. The CDC denied the request on the ground that I did not have the most life-threatening symptoms: chest pain and shortness of breath. According to everything I read it's very likely not to have these symptoms if you're in your 30's and relatively healthy. And... that was that. They discharged me, said I don't have Corona virus, since they didn't test me for it, and said I can ride the subway, return to work, do whatever I want. Of course my doctor disagreed. She said I should treat myself as if I am infected. My partner is currently staying in a nearby hotel since we live in a studio apartment. I've performed a self-quarantine for 14 days. Fortunately I can work from home and my partner can deliver me groceries if I run out. But I don't think that many people are aware of the fact that they're actively not testing people for COVID-19, even people who have travel history to high-risk places. Do I still have symptoms? Yes, Fever is current 101.6 (as of a couple hours ago), aches, and a cough that is persistent. I'm taking Tylenol and drinking a lot of water. Do I just have the flu? Well, not according to my screens I don't. Is this real? It's as real as I said it is. I returned from Japan. I'm sick. The symptoms are similar to COVID19 and I was refused testing. You can believe whatever you want, I don't care. A channel NY1 reporter reached out to connect with the individual, so perhaps if validated, it won’t “stay hidden very long”. And to your point, it’s not a cluster. But how would you have a cluster if each given patient is handled this way? The individual case is less interesting than the protocol. EDIT: Now reported by media: https://abc7ny.com/5974999/ https://abc7ny.com/5974999/
    - thepangolino 7y ago
- greglindahl 7y ago
  We have Roche, Stanford can make kits from stock, etc. The new community case in El Camino hospital was tested locally and quickly. That’s 7.0 miles from where I am, so of course I’m concerned.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Similar situation here. Nearest confirmed case is about 10 km from here, so I'm assuming that it is here already in one or more people.
dan_quixote 7y ago
Based on what exactly? This thing seems to surprise us daily with its ability to spread undetected. And the US is woefully unprepared to administer tests. I fully expect the numbers to sharply rise right along with our ability to test over the next few weeks.

beamatronic 7y ago

The WHO has no credibility with me. I don’t believe anything they say anymore.

humaniania 7y ago
That seems pretty extreme to me. Who else is a better authority?
- beamatronic 7y ago
  The CDC The Santa Clara County health department
  - sk0g 7y ago
    Why should anyone in 195-1 countries care about either of those?
    - beamatronic 7y ago
      Because if anyone took this seriously (shelter in place worldwide 1 month ago) we would not be in this situation.
      - recursive 7y ago
        > Because if anyone took this seriously You mean if everyone took this seriously. Which is obviously a lot more difficult. It would probably not be possible to get everyone to agree that the sky is blue or 2+2=4.
        jacquesm 7y ago
        There was a point in time where a single city could have made that difference. Then there was a point in time where single province could have made that difference. Then a country. Now none of this matters anymore but it is still an interesting question: was the virus known and detected at a point in time where it could have been contained? From the long incubation time my gut feeling is that it probably couldn't have been. International airtravel speeds things up, it also didn't make a difference in 1918 when intercontinental traffic was by boat. Lindbergh didn't make his flight until 1927.

cbsks 7y ago

Here's the actual WHO situation report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200228-sitrep-39-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The US is shown has having "local transmission". "Community transmission" is defined as "the inability to relate confirmed cases through chains of transmission for a large number of cases, or by increasing positive tests through routine screening of sentinel samples". Maybe this is just a terminology issue... "spreading freely in communities" could refer to "community transmission" defined above.