4 ms·
>Had anyone seen death and recovery by age? There was a recent (Feb 17) study here with mortality crosstabs (see ‘results’): http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/artic
by jointpdf 7y ago
>Had anyone seen death and recovery by age?
There was a recent (Feb 17) study here with mortality crosstabs (see ‘results’): http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
Case fatality rate (N_deaths/N_confirmed_cases):
[0-9]: NA
[10-39]: 0.2%
[40-49]: 0.4%
[50-59]: 1.3%
[60-69]: 3.6%
[70-79]: 8.0%
[>=80]: 14.8%
- nullc 7y agoIndeed. I've seen that, but not deaths,recoveries data. The above has the potential underestimate problem from case growths.
- HarryHirsch 7y agoFrom the Diamond Princess we've got a pretty good idea about mortality. It's almost a conspiracy theory: let the disease run its course in a controlled environment to see how bad it is.
- nullc 7y agoDiamond Princess isolated people, no? That is unlike what we'll see in the broader population.
- jointpdf 7y agoThey include a breakdown by date of onset as well, which isn’t exactly the method you suggest (but I read somewhere that recovery time is ~2 weeks for mild cases and ~3-6 weeks for severe). Case fatality by date of onset: [<Dec 31] 14.4% (n=105) [Jan 1-10] 15.6% (n=653) [Jan 11-20] 5.7% (n=5417) [Jan 21-31] 1.9% (n=26468) [>Feb 1] 0.8% (n=12030) That does make the overall fatality rate look quite a bit worse than the naive calculation.