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Once testing actually ramps up in the US... I'd expect similar cases to pop up all over the Bay Area. The Fairfield case was infectious starting weeks ago. The

Once testing actually ramps up in the US... I'd expect similar cases to pop up all over the Bay Area. The Fairfield case was infectious starting weeks ago. The CDC site shows only 8 more tests having happened in the last few days (aka: preposterously low!). We're really flying blind until we have more data and testing. When the history of this epidemic in the US is written, it will be noted that the entire month of February was wasted diagnostically and critical opportunities to still attempt containment lost.

JTon 7y ago
So it's probably the virus is spreading around the bay area undiagnosed. Has there been any reports of hospitals experiencing higher than normal volumes of flu-like cases?
- strangeloops85 7y ago
  Unfortunately, it will be a very small signal relative to the total number of respiratory illnesses at this time of year. Moreover, there's often a multi-week lag-time between it spreading and getting cases that get severe enough for hospitalization. Until there's a critical mass of enough infected to get sufficient number of patients with ARDS (like the woman at the UC Davis Medical Center), it may be hard to notice. The problem is, once it's noticed through this method, it's likely spread to a significant number of people. This is what happened in Northern Italy and Iran (and to some extent in Wuhan as well).
strangeloops85 7y ago
And, right on cue: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/2020/02/28/ae53c93a-5a77-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coron... Here we go...
koheripbal 7y ago
While this is true it does not negate the need to mitigate contagion at work. The CDC and WHO recommend a blended approach to response that includes both perpetual containment and perpetual mitigation efforts. It's not one or the other.

JTon 7y ago

So it's probably the virus is spreading around the bay area undiagnosed. Has there been any reports of hospitals experiencing higher than normal volumes of flu-like cases?

strangeloops85 7y ago
Unfortunately, it will be a very small signal relative to the total number of respiratory illnesses at this time of year. Moreover, there's often a multi-week lag-time between it spreading and getting cases that get severe enough for hospitalization. Until there's a critical mass of enough infected to get sufficient number of patients with ARDS (like the woman at the UC Davis Medical Center), it may be hard to notice. The problem is, once it's noticed through this method, it's likely spread to a significant number of people. This is what happened in Northern Italy and Iran (and to some extent in Wuhan as well).

strangeloops85 7y ago

And, right on cue: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/2020/02/28/ae53c93a-5a77-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coron... Here we go...

koheripbal 7y ago

While this is true it does not negate the need to mitigate contagion at work. The CDC and WHO recommend a blended approach to response that includes both perpetual containment and perpetual mitigation efforts. It's not one or the other.