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Once again, if this is so benign the why China quarantined half the population ? One of the possibility would be that the virus might much more virulent on Asi

Once again, if this is so benign the why China quarantined half the population ? One of the possibility would be that the virus might much more virulent on Asians (I assume the Diamond Princess passengers are mostly white).

nostromo 7y ago
China acted before having the full picture. We still don’t have the full picture, but this is looking to be much milder than originally feared.
- katmannthree 7y ago
  I wouldn't bet on that. China halted it with extremely drastic measures, quite possibly more than we'd be able to muster in the US. Not that many people here have sick leave, and few can afford to not work for a month. Given how virulent this is and the statistic that 20% of cases require medical attention, once the hospitals fill this could get quite ugly. Compounding that is the US government's response, which has been quite weak so far.
- gdubs 7y ago
  This is something we’ll really only know in hindsight, but it’s reminiscent of the reaction post-y2k. People put in a lot of work to ensure there wasn’t a crisis, but the media narrative was that it was an overreaction (igniting all the work put in). China — and this is not meant to give them a pass on all sorts of errors and shortcomings — took fairly dramatic measures and were well equipped. My concern with this virus compared to SARS is that it spreads much easier, making the problem one of infrastructure and capacity to deal with a large number of cases all at once. E.g., how quickly can we ramp up to deal with a potential outbreak at scale in terms of ventilator beds, etc. And if not for this, then the next one. Coronavirus has raised a lot of questions about our preparedness and strategy for coping with a pandemic — and personally it feels like we’re sleepwalking a bit here in the West.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
user5994461 7y ago
China acted based on SARS, the previous virus they got that had a fatality rate around 10%. The new virus could have been the same and wipe double digits of the Chinese population so the central government went all in as soon as they heard of it.
srcmap 7y ago
Another possibility might be the dead rate is much higher once the hospital systems are overwhelm like in Wuhan or in Iran. Worst if Medical personals were infected and unknowingly transmit the virus.

nostromo 7y ago

China acted before having the full picture. We still don’t have the full picture, but this is looking to be much milder than originally feared.

katmannthree 7y ago
I wouldn't bet on that. China halted it with extremely drastic measures, quite possibly more than we'd be able to muster in the US. Not that many people here have sick leave, and few can afford to not work for a month. Given how virulent this is and the statistic that 20% of cases require medical attention, once the hospitals fill this could get quite ugly. Compounding that is the US government's response, which has been quite weak so far.
gdubs 7y ago
This is something we’ll really only know in hindsight, but it’s reminiscent of the reaction post-y2k. People put in a lot of work to ensure there wasn’t a crisis, but the media narrative was that it was an overreaction (igniting all the work put in). China — and this is not meant to give them a pass on all sorts of errors and shortcomings — took fairly dramatic measures and were well equipped. My concern with this virus compared to SARS is that it spreads much easier, making the problem one of infrastructure and capacity to deal with a large number of cases all at once. E.g., how quickly can we ramp up to deal with a potential outbreak at scale in terms of ventilator beds, etc. And if not for this, then the next one. Coronavirus has raised a lot of questions about our preparedness and strategy for coping with a pandemic — and personally it feels like we’re sleepwalking a bit here in the West.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

user5994461 7y ago

China acted based on SARS, the previous virus they got that had a fatality rate around 10%. The new virus could have been the same and wipe double digits of the Chinese population so the central government went all in as soon as they heard of it.

srcmap 7y ago

Another possibility might be the dead rate is much higher once the hospital systems are overwhelm like in Wuhan or in Iran. Worst if Medical personals were infected and unknowingly transmit the virus.