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Seems like an overreaction, but healthy for people who are long. Interesting take: “Flu worse than corona.” https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f

Seems like an overreaction, but healthy for people who are long. Interesting take: “Flu worse than corona.” https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fau9wo/flu_worse_than_corona_diamond_princess_statistics/.compact https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fau9wo/flu_...

jmnicolas 7y ago
Once again, if this is so benign the why China quarantined half the population ? One of the possibility would be that the virus might much more virulent on Asians (I assume the Diamond Princess passengers are mostly white).
- nostromo 7y ago
  China acted before having the full picture. We still don’t have the full picture, but this is looking to be much milder than originally feared.
  - katmannthree 7y ago
    I wouldn't bet on that. China halted it with extremely drastic measures, quite possibly more than we'd be able to muster in the US. Not that many people here have sick leave, and few can afford to not work for a month. Given how virulent this is and the statistic that 20% of cases require medical attention, once the hospitals fill this could get quite ugly. Compounding that is the US government's response, which has been quite weak so far.
  - gdubs 7y ago
    This is something we’ll really only know in hindsight, but it’s reminiscent of the reaction post-y2k. People put in a lot of work to ensure there wasn’t a crisis, but the media narrative was that it was an overreaction (igniting all the work put in). China — and this is not meant to give them a pass on all sorts of errors and shortcomings — took fairly dramatic measures and were well equipped. My concern with this virus compared to SARS is that it spreads much easier, making the problem one of infrastructure and capacity to deal with a large number of cases all at once. E.g., how quickly can we ramp up to deal with a potential outbreak at scale in terms of ventilator beds, etc. And if not for this, then the next one. Coronavirus has raised a lot of questions about our preparedness and strategy for coping with a pandemic — and personally it feels like we’re sleepwalking a bit here in the West.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- user5994461 7y ago
  China acted based on SARS, the previous virus they got that had a fatality rate around 10%. The new virus could have been the same and wipe double digits of the Chinese population so the central government went all in as soon as they heard of it.
- srcmap 7y ago
  Another possibility might be the dead rate is much higher once the hospital systems are overwhelm like in Wuhan or in Iran. Worst if Medical personals were infected and unknowingly transmit the virus.
saberdancer 7y ago
It's based on an assumption that most people do not report being sick and aren't tested. In this situation where vast majority of people are aware of Coronavirus I doubt this is true. Diamond princess case is an interesting one, but it is also highly quarantined ship where they stopped the spread early on and then gave huge amount of medical attention to people on board. Even in such a situation, there were 10 deaths and apparently 30 or so people are in serious condition. Let's say half of those die, so we get to 25 deaths of 700 infected. We get 3.5%. One more issue is that apparently testing is not adequate, there have been numerous cases where someone tested negative several times only to test positive after a while. This means that containment processes in the western world will not work, no one is willing to blockade a huge region like China did. In the end, we could end up in a situation where China understood the issue and acted decisively to stop the spread while the western world does half measures and ends up having a huge pandemic on their hands.
istorical 7y ago
Percentage of patients who need ventilator support is magnitudes higher than for the flu. Around the world, no country has enough ICU beds and respirators to cope with the 10-20% of infected that will need them. Current death rate is a joke compared to what it will be once hospitals become swamped. Social distancing measures may prevent that outcome but will devastate the economy even further. Look behind the surface level information.
- sigstoat 7y ago
  > Social distancing measures may prevent that outcome but will devastate the economy even further. it would be nice if we could encourage low-consequence social distancing now, instead of being mindlessly told not to "panic". we'd have more leeway to keep running the parts of the economy that require social contact.
sfoley 7y ago
You linked to WSB.

jmnicolas 7y ago

Once again, if this is so benign the why China quarantined half the population ? One of the possibility would be that the virus might much more virulent on Asians (I assume the Diamond Princess passengers are mostly white).

nostromo 7y ago
China acted before having the full picture. We still don’t have the full picture, but this is looking to be much milder than originally feared.
- katmannthree 7y ago
  I wouldn't bet on that. China halted it with extremely drastic measures, quite possibly more than we'd be able to muster in the US. Not that many people here have sick leave, and few can afford to not work for a month. Given how virulent this is and the statistic that 20% of cases require medical attention, once the hospitals fill this could get quite ugly. Compounding that is the US government's response, which has been quite weak so far.
- gdubs 7y ago
  This is something we’ll really only know in hindsight, but it’s reminiscent of the reaction post-y2k. People put in a lot of work to ensure there wasn’t a crisis, but the media narrative was that it was an overreaction (igniting all the work put in). China — and this is not meant to give them a pass on all sorts of errors and shortcomings — took fairly dramatic measures and were well equipped. My concern with this virus compared to SARS is that it spreads much easier, making the problem one of infrastructure and capacity to deal with a large number of cases all at once. E.g., how quickly can we ramp up to deal with a potential outbreak at scale in terms of ventilator beds, etc. And if not for this, then the next one. Coronavirus has raised a lot of questions about our preparedness and strategy for coping with a pandemic — and personally it feels like we’re sleepwalking a bit here in the West.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
user5994461 7y ago
China acted based on SARS, the previous virus they got that had a fatality rate around 10%. The new virus could have been the same and wipe double digits of the Chinese population so the central government went all in as soon as they heard of it.
srcmap 7y ago
Another possibility might be the dead rate is much higher once the hospital systems are overwhelm like in Wuhan or in Iran. Worst if Medical personals were infected and unknowingly transmit the virus.

saberdancer 7y ago

It's based on an assumption that most people do not report being sick and aren't tested. In this situation where vast majority of people are aware of Coronavirus I doubt this is true. Diamond princess case is an interesting one, but it is also highly quarantined ship where they stopped the spread early on and then gave huge amount of medical attention to people on board. Even in such a situation, there were 10 deaths and apparently 30 or so people are in serious condition. Let's say half of those die, so we get to 25 deaths of 700 infected. We get 3.5%. One more issue is that apparently testing is not adequate, there have been numerous cases where someone tested negative several times only to test positive after a while. This means that containment processes in the western world will not work, no one is willing to blockade a huge region like China did. In the end, we could end up in a situation where China understood the issue and acted decisively to stop the spread while the western world does half measures and ends up having a huge pandemic on their hands.

istorical 7y ago

Percentage of patients who need ventilator support is magnitudes higher than for the flu. Around the world, no country has enough ICU beds and respirators to cope with the 10-20% of infected that will need them. Current death rate is a joke compared to what it will be once hospitals become swamped. Social distancing measures may prevent that outcome but will devastate the economy even further. Look behind the surface level information.

sigstoat 7y ago
> Social distancing measures may prevent that outcome but will devastate the economy even further. it would be nice if we could encourage low-consequence social distancing now, instead of being mindlessly told not to "panic". we'd have more leeway to keep running the parts of the economy that require social contact.

sfoley 7y ago

You linked to WSB.