2-3% is the number you get from taking deaths divided by cases. This appears to be an obvious erroneous estimation technique. The a parallel response links an

2-3% is the number you get from taking deaths divided by cases. This appears to be an obvious erroneous estimation technique. The a parallel response links an article pointing to a paper evaluating this very question for the SARS outbreak. The paper shows that-- as I suggested-- dividing death by cases gives an extremely biased (low) estimate until the rate of new infections drops off. For SARS, deaths/(deaths+recoveries) was an accurate estimation. :-/