4 ms·
The true death rate is unknown, the currently measured case fatality rate is 20X higher than the flu. This should be taken with a big grain of salt, because ear
by mytherin 7y ago
The true death rate is unknown, the currently measured case fatality rate is 20X higher than the flu. This should be taken with a big grain of salt, because early case fatality rates are generally highly overestimated due to mostly testing people that have severe complications. The seasonal flu is much better researched.
The passengers on the diamond princess cruise ship [1] could give us a better estimate of the true death rate, because they all got tested regardless of symptoms. So far 4 out of 700 people have died (0.5%). The death rate for people 65+ with the seasonal flu is 0.9% [2]. If the coronavirus is as deadly as the flu we expect 7 people to die, if it is 20X as deadly as the flu we expect 140 people to die.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_c...
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm