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As someone living here in the Bay Area, I have little to no interaction with the current ongoing Coronavirus outbreak. Why are Asian countries taking such drama

As someone living here in the Bay Area, I have little to no interaction with the current ongoing Coronavirus outbreak. Why are Asian countries taking such dramatic measures right now? To be willing to take on such an economic drain in order to do so makes it seem like they're treating the virus like a potential pandemic. Are the death rates for the current coronavirus outbreak substantially higher than the regular flu? What else am I missing here?

evanlivingston 7y ago
There are at least 7 cases in the bay area. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Wuhan-coronavirus-Here-s-what-we-know-15000563.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Wuhan-coronaviru...
moultano 7y ago
Yes, the death rates are somewhere around 20x higher, and it is much more transmissable. The nytimes has a great graph showing the range of possible values for death rate and transmissability of the virus as compared to other historical viruses. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-feb-26-2020.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-i... My only quibble is that the shape of the uncertainty shouldn't be a box, it should be oriented around a downward sloping line.
- jimmaswell 7y ago
  Then why is the article author downplaying it so substantially?
  - moultano 7y ago
    This isn't the best article, it appears to be a student activity guide. I was just intending to link to the graphic that has appeared throughout the nytimes' coverage.
    - jimmaswell 7y ago
      I meant the OP article.
      - ska 7y ago
        How does the article downplay it? It's about how not to misrepresent the data.
        jimmaswell 7y ago
        "Red is too alarming, we should use blue" doesn't reconcile with the severity of the situation as far as I can tell.
        ska 7y ago
        I don't think that is an accurate characterization at all, what they were saying about color choice was more nuanced and allowed that things might get much worse. Why start with the most evocative "danger" mapping when there are a lot of unknowns?
- mytherin 7y ago
  The true death rate is unknown, the currently measured case fatality rate is 20X higher than the flu. This should be taken with a big grain of salt, because early case fatality rates are generally highly overestimated due to mostly testing people that have severe complications. The seasonal flu is much better researched. The passengers on the diamond princess cruise ship [1] could give us a better estimate of the true death rate, because they all got tested regardless of symptoms. So far 4 out of 700 people have died (0.5%). The death rate for people 65+ with the seasonal flu is 0.9% [2]. If the coronavirus is as deadly as the flu we expect 7 people to die, if it is 20X as deadly as the flu we expect 140 people to die. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_c... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
ohmanjjj 7y ago
Oh man, have you been living in a bubble?
lern_too_spel 7y ago
Hospitalization rates and mortality rates are up to 20x those of the flu. This upper bound will probably decrease because the denominator is undercounted.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
claudeganon 7y ago
Yes, the death rates are substantially higher than the flu. Flu is about .1% while coronavirus is 2% and remember that we have flu vaccines and somewhat effective drugs to combat influenza and nothing (yet proven) comparable for this new disease. High rates of hospitalization and injury. In the case of China, chaos resulting from the panedemic has the potential to undue Xi Jinping's reign, so his cadre has decided to take the hit on the economy and go full war mode to combat it. That being said, it does pose a critical danger and greater mortality rate if healthcare infrastructure is overwhelmed. The drastic lockdowns do help control the spread to a degree that mitigates this possibility and allows for the ramping up of response capacity. The US should be responding with comparable force (and probably will be forced to in the coming weeks), but there's a lot going against taking action at the moment, from poor national coordination, Trump administration cuts and malfeasance, bureaucratic impediments around mass testing, and outsourced supply chains.
macintux 7y ago
No vaccine. No way to know that someone is infected and spreading the disease. More deadly than the flu. More devastating even to people who survive, something like 10% of those infected require weeks of intensive hospitalization. Because it’s spreading silently and is so impactful to its victims it’s a really big deal.
chaostheory 7y ago
The case mortality rate seems to be much higher than the flu. It's also extremely infectious because you can infect people while asymptomatic, having no symptoms. You can be asymptomatic up to 24 days. They're also saying that you can still infect others after recovery.

evanlivingston 7y ago

There are at least 7 cases in the bay area. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Wuhan-coronavirus-Here-s-what-we-know-15000563.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Wuhan-coronaviru...

moultano 7y ago

Yes, the death rates are somewhere around 20x higher, and it is much more transmissable. The nytimes has a great graph showing the range of possible values for death rate and transmissability of the virus as compared to other historical viruses. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-feb-26-2020.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-i... My only quibble is that the shape of the uncertainty shouldn't be a box, it should be oriented around a downward sloping line.

jimmaswell 7y ago
Then why is the article author downplaying it so substantially?
- moultano 7y ago
  This isn't the best article, it appears to be a student activity guide. I was just intending to link to the graphic that has appeared throughout the nytimes' coverage.
  - jimmaswell 7y ago
    I meant the OP article.
    - ska 7y ago
      How does the article downplay it? It's about how not to misrepresent the data.
      - jimmaswell 7y ago
        "Red is too alarming, we should use blue" doesn't reconcile with the severity of the situation as far as I can tell.
        ska 7y ago
        I don't think that is an accurate characterization at all, what they were saying about color choice was more nuanced and allowed that things might get much worse. Why start with the most evocative "danger" mapping when there are a lot of unknowns?
mytherin 7y ago
The true death rate is unknown, the currently measured case fatality rate is 20X higher than the flu. This should be taken with a big grain of salt, because early case fatality rates are generally highly overestimated due to mostly testing people that have severe complications. The seasonal flu is much better researched. The passengers on the diamond princess cruise ship [1] could give us a better estimate of the true death rate, because they all got tested regardless of symptoms. So far 4 out of 700 people have died (0.5%). The death rate for people 65+ with the seasonal flu is 0.9% [2]. If the coronavirus is as deadly as the flu we expect 7 people to die, if it is 20X as deadly as the flu we expect 140 people to die. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_c... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

ohmanjjj 7y ago

Oh man, have you been living in a bubble?

lern_too_spel 7y ago

Hospitalization rates and mortality rates are up to 20x those of the flu. This upper bound will probably decrease because the denominator is undercounted.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

claudeganon 7y ago

Yes, the death rates are substantially higher than the flu. Flu is about .1% while coronavirus is 2% and remember that we have flu vaccines and somewhat effective drugs to combat influenza and nothing (yet proven) comparable for this new disease. High rates of hospitalization and injury. In the case of China, chaos resulting from the panedemic has the potential to undue Xi Jinping's reign, so his cadre has decided to take the hit on the economy and go full war mode to combat it. That being said, it does pose a critical danger and greater mortality rate if healthcare infrastructure is overwhelmed. The drastic lockdowns do help control the spread to a degree that mitigates this possibility and allows for the ramping up of response capacity. The US should be responding with comparable force (and probably will be forced to in the coming weeks), but there's a lot going against taking action at the moment, from poor national coordination, Trump administration cuts and malfeasance, bureaucratic impediments around mass testing, and outsourced supply chains.

macintux 7y ago

No vaccine. No way to know that someone is infected and spreading the disease. More deadly than the flu. More devastating even to people who survive, something like 10% of those infected require weeks of intensive hospitalization. Because it’s spreading silently and is so impactful to its victims it’s a really big deal.

chaostheory 7y ago

The case mortality rate seems to be much higher than the flu. It's also extremely infectious because you can infect people while asymptomatic, having no symptoms. You can be asymptomatic up to 24 days. They're also saying that you can still infect others after recovery.