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Ask HN: Will there be any Facebook killer in the near future?
A friend of mine approached me with a nice social idea. I am technical person, I liked the idea and I genuinely believe it can be disruptive (but that just me). But then looking on the growth of Facebook and their armors I am bit skeptical about our ability to execute something this big especially when we have no history of execution. When we talked with others, we sounded so naive in fact a laughing matter. Coming back to main question,
Will there be any Facebook killer/rival in the near future? (Assuming someone else in a MIT dorm or in a remote African safari is trying to come up with that).
If yes, How much important you think time of entry will be if they have to succeed? Do you think hype surrounding Facebook can kill some potential entrants due to poor adaptation?
As for as my tiny world is considered, I think no one actually seriously tried to challenge the Facebook not even Google or Twitter. Same goes for Google. Problem of scale is so big that it is near impossible to take on Google or Facebook.
- soulclap 16y agoI think your best chance is to build a community (or 'network') that is focused on a certain niche or group of people though. And I guess the whole 'scaling' aspect can be quite 'scary' when you look at sites with millions of members such as Facebook but I'd say screw that for now and just get started, by the time you really need to expand your infrastructure, things (such as your team, capital and so on) will be different anyhow. In order to avoid any downvotes: of course, keep scaling in mind. But put the main focus on your ideas and the overall experience. And regarding the demise of Facebook in general: hopefully. I really dislike the corporateness and general lack of 'coolness' on Facebook. Myspace felt a lot better and was tons more fun to me than Facebook, all technical and visual shortcomings aside. I can't imagine anyone 'feeling at home' on Facebook.
- austinB 16y agoGood point regarding focusing on a niche. A niche is far easier to dominate than the general population, allowing you to refine your concept and then expand from there. Remember, FB didn't begin with 500 million members. It was initially available solely for Harvard students, then university students, and finally anyone.
- abhishektwr 16y ago+1. I too like this idea starting with niche. Path and Instagram are good examples.
- knowsnothing613 16y agoyes. Tumblr will overtake facebook in 3 years.
- antidaily 16y agonah. different beasts entirely. tumblr doesnt know who I went to college with.
- knowsnothing613 16y agoyou're in the wrong demographic. remember, when you were in college, and on facebook. Then your parents, and 'old' people started to join. Sorry to say this, but you're considered the old person for the tumblr user base. Alot. Alot of 12-17 yr olds are on it. If you're in junior high, or high school all your friends are on it. And they will pull ppl in, like facebook did. facebook has become the new email. And just as stale.
- keiferski 16y agoEmail isn't stale. It's a default. Facebook is on its way to being the same. Tumblr? Not a definite need there.
- eth 16y agoI'm not sure that a "Facebook Killer" will emerge in the near future. Remember that Facebook has somewhere around 600 million members. While they may not kill Facebook or even amass half as many members in the next two years, I would definitely say that I can see Tumblr and Lockerz experiencing explosive growth over the next 12-18 months. This growth is significant because it is all targeted at the 13-25 crowd - one of the most lucrative and influential demographics. So, Facebook is huge and still growing (albeit mostly in the 35+ age group) but the young crowd is spending time in places where they can consume (media, interaction, discovery) all in one place rather than broadcast (status updates, chats, messages).
- aDemoUzer 16y agoAfter reading the comments, I am more for that there will be another site that will allow users to waste time. It is not just either a site kills Facebook or it does not. I don't think hype around Facebook can kill entrants. If the entrants dies, it will be because of their own poor execution or just having something that users don't need. The fact is, if you create something that users want and you can spread the word about it, you will get the users, regardless of how big other websites are. You do have to understand why Facebook is so popular. They have made themselves a platform, which attracts developers and gives them a way to keep the website fresh and have something new over the years. Emergence of Facebook does not makes it Google killer, both companies have their own problems that they are trying to solve. There is room for co-existence.
- Skywing 16y agoI think the better question is, who really cares? Everyone is already using Facebook for what Facebook excels at. It's like gasoline-powered cars, now. There are too many people invested in Facebook, and using Facebook, for something to come along and do the exact same thing that Facebook does, but in a different way, and expect people to just move over to it. A Facebook killer won't come in the form of something similar to Facebook, it'll come in the form of something more time consuming and easier to waste time on than Facebook. It'll be something that lets people do something that they enjoy, and do it every hour or so with a different result. (here, i'm referencing what I think most people do in FB, and that's just browse people's pictures) It won't kill Facebook by being a better Facebook, it'll kill it by attracting people's attention elsewhere.
- keiferski 16y agoAgreed. The window of opportunity for a new social network to take the thunder of Facebook is long closed. Social networks are a bit old at this point, and as you said, Facebook is pretty entrenched.
- abhishektwr 16y agoInteresting analogy and generalization, I never thought in that way. I think that's true, people are always looking for interesting new ways to invest & waster their time. And certainly a clone of Facebook can not take on Facebook anyway.