3 ms·

In the short term, I keep finding myself asking: if people fear this new virus so much, shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year? In the long term, I

In the short term, I keep finding myself asking: if people fear this new virus so much, shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year? In the long term, I believe we're going to see more cases of novel viruses spreading around the world as global warming unleashes dormant viruses. High density urban planning and new viruses is not a good combo. We'll probably need to drastically change our lifestyles to really combat future global epidemics.

jacquesm 7y ago
> shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year? Why is it that people need to be told the same thing over and over again? Never mind: (1) the R0 [1] of this virus is somewhere between 3-4 and that of the flu virus is closer to 1, that means that you can have a lot more cases, and quite fast. (2) the flu virus has a mortality around 0.1%, this virus is somewhere between 2-3% [2]. (3) the chances of severe complications (pneumonia) with lasting damage are about 20% once infected. This has nothing to do with global warming or 'dormant viruses', it is an example of Zoonosis [3] , a pathogen crossing the 'some animal' -> humans species barrier. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis If this were a start-up you'd all recognize that it is positioned quite well to scale up, 'go viral', so to speak, no growth hacking required. Investors would be tripping over each other trying to get in on the ground floor, success almost guaranteed.
- simmanian 7y ago
  You're probably correct and I understand your frustration. I was just coming from a more personal perspective. If I contract the corona virus, it'd be probably no different than contracting the flu, because I'm young, healthy, and I have easy access to healthcare (since I'm working). A lot of people with the virus reportedly do not even have any symptoms. Regarding global warming, again, you're right that this virus is an example of zoonosis. I was more talking about the potential for additional novel viruses spreading around the globe.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    > If I contract the corona virus, it'd be probably no different than contracting the flu, because I'm young, healthy, and I have easy access to healthcare (since I'm working). That depends. The virus doesn't really care that you're young, healthy and have easy access to healthcare. Yes, age is a factor, but you being young doesn't stop you from spreading it to those you love who may not be young, healthy and have easy access to healthcare. That easy access to healthcare is predicated on a system that is not yet overloaded with cases in the 'critical' and 'serious' category. It's all bell curves. So your personal perspective can (and will) shift as this thing develops.
pmoriarty 7y ago
"if people fear this new virus so much, shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year?" People should definitely be more concerned than they are about the flu every year. Way fewer people would die from the flu every year if more people took it seriously and got vaccinated. Some people get vaccinated, but not nearly enough. Also, every year many people continue going in to work (even if they can take sick leave) when they feel sick. That spreads the disease and increases the risk that other people will die. Fortunately people are starting to wake up to the risks of COVID-19, and will probably change their habits (by washing their hands more and staying home when they're sick) to make the spread of both diseases less likely. Unfortunately, after the outbreak is over they'll probably go back to business as usual in respect to the regular flu.

jacquesm 7y ago

> shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year? Why is it that people need to be told the same thing over and over again? Never mind: (1) the R0 [1] of this virus is somewhere between 3-4 and that of the flu virus is closer to 1, that means that you can have a lot more cases, and quite fast. (2) the flu virus has a mortality around 0.1%, this virus is somewhere between 2-3% [2]. (3) the chances of severe complications (pneumonia) with lasting damage are about 20% once infected. This has nothing to do with global warming or 'dormant viruses', it is an example of Zoonosis [3] , a pathogen crossing the 'some animal' -> humans species barrier. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis If this were a start-up you'd all recognize that it is positioned quite well to scale up, 'go viral', so to speak, no growth hacking required. Investors would be tripping over each other trying to get in on the ground floor, success almost guaranteed.

simmanian 7y ago
You're probably correct and I understand your frustration. I was just coming from a more personal perspective. If I contract the corona virus, it'd be probably no different than contracting the flu, because I'm young, healthy, and I have easy access to healthcare (since I'm working). A lot of people with the virus reportedly do not even have any symptoms. Regarding global warming, again, you're right that this virus is an example of zoonosis. I was more talking about the potential for additional novel viruses spreading around the globe.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  > If I contract the corona virus, it'd be probably no different than contracting the flu, because I'm young, healthy, and I have easy access to healthcare (since I'm working). That depends. The virus doesn't really care that you're young, healthy and have easy access to healthcare. Yes, age is a factor, but you being young doesn't stop you from spreading it to those you love who may not be young, healthy and have easy access to healthcare. That easy access to healthcare is predicated on a system that is not yet overloaded with cases in the 'critical' and 'serious' category. It's all bell curves. So your personal perspective can (and will) shift as this thing develops.

pmoriarty 7y ago

"if people fear this new virus so much, shouldn't they also fear the flu virus every year?" People should definitely be more concerned than they are about the flu every year. Way fewer people would die from the flu every year if more people took it seriously and got vaccinated. Some people get vaccinated, but not nearly enough. Also, every year many people continue going in to work (even if they can take sick leave) when they feel sick. That spreads the disease and increases the risk that other people will die. Fortunately people are starting to wake up to the risks of COVID-19, and will probably change their habits (by washing their hands more and staying home when they're sick) to make the spread of both diseases less likely. Unfortunately, after the outbreak is over they'll probably go back to business as usual in respect to the regular flu.