My hypothesis is that most people willing and able to do that for the iPhone were also willing and able to jump carriers to get an iPhone on AT&T sometime since

My hypothesis is that most people willing and able to do that for the iPhone were also willing and able to jump carriers to get an iPhone on AT&T sometime since its release nearly four years ago. I said exactly this once the Verizon iPhone rumors started building up a few months ago. The cell phone market is a market, like any other. Like any other (unregulated) market, it has probably been at equilibrium for some time, as anyone that wanted an iPhone could've switched to AT&T over the last 4 years. So the strong iPhone demanders are already AT&T subscribers. Who's left? Casual Verizon iPhone demanders. Let's assume they're not on AT&T (if they were on AT&T, they'd already own iPhones--trivial case). These people are casual demanders, so they won't pay $200 to break contract and get iPhones. They'll wait instead. What happens to them when a Verizon iPhone is announced? Nothing--they're still locked into their former contracts. More likely is that Mauro sees a slight trend increase over the next few months (as these casual iPhone demanders see their contracts end and decide to buy iPhones). I'm not shocked that February 10th was not a humongous success. Gruber predicted something like 1.5-2 million Verizon iPhones sold, but that number was too high. The iPhone market has had 4 years to settle down.