You are exactly correct. With the formulas you described: naïve CFR = deaths / cases resolved CFR = deaths / (deaths + recoveries) It can be shown pretty dra

You are exactly correct. With the formulas you described: naïve CFR = deaths / cases resolved CFR = deaths / (deaths + recoveries) It can be shown pretty dramatically in outbreak simulations how more accurate the resolved CFR is than the naïve CFR. See for example the chart https://blog.zorinaq.com/assets/outbreak2.svg https://blog.zorinaq.com/assets/outbreak2.svg In that specific example, the naïve CFR underestimates by 5x, while the resolved CFR is only off by ~1.3x. I ran this simulation as part of my blog post on how to estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of the coronavirus: https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/ https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/