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John Carmack talks about “antifragile” idea generation (2015) [video]
- dang 7y agoURL changed from https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1232052215684177924 https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1232052215684177924, which points to this.
- foxx-boxx 7y agoYacks about. Previous generations burned all available fossil fuels and new generations gonna pay for it.
- ChrisArchitect 7y agoIn case the (2015) is misleading, this is newly released video from an internal-to-facebook talk he gave in 2015. Cool
- MikusR 7y agoIt's very misleading. While it was filmed in 2015 it was published in 2020.
- kaens 7y agoI don't think it's misleading, the date a talk was given can be very relevant for context.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoThe date of the talk is useful information, but I would assume the date on the HN title is the publish date.
- csours 7y agoI don't believe in the 6 thinking hats methodology (I don't think it has anything to do with psychology, but I do think it has something to say about work), but I think I learned something from reading about it. I have a certain mentality where I will plan a feature, and then I will spend literally forever poking holes in that feature and thinking about all the ways it will fail. This demotivates me greatly. I think it is better to plan the happy path, then take a finite, planned amount of time to mentally test it and note corners and edges, then take a stab at iteration, then go back and re-evaluate. I think this is probably how normal people do this, but I also think it's easy to get stuck on one of those modes. One of my architects is stuck on happy-path mode, and it's really hard to get them to actually think about implementations. --- Notes on the 6 hats: I think the important thing is not to get stuck on one hat. You may pick some of these as your focus, but I think it's important to have some balance as well. Hat Color - Original Theme/My theme White - Data/Data Analysis Yellow - Optimism/Happy Path Plan, Architectural View Blue - Process/ Project Manager, Task management, Scrum Black - Pessimism/Testing view, how will it go wrong Green - Creative/Implementation Phase (just write some code) Red - Emotion/Iteration Review, Hot wash
- contingencies 7y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Thinking_Hats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Thinking_Hats This was introduced to us during year 5 and 6 (ages 10-11) schooling in the Australian public education system's gifted and talented stream. Great free education!
- mottey 7y agosame, I thought everyone learnt this in school when growing up...
- malkia 7y agoWhere does Team acceptance fells into? (Process/Project Manager?)
- csours 7y agoI honestly have no idea. I think you might want to turn it around and say what do I have to do for team acceptance.
- steveeq1 7y agoI read it and liked it. It's also on Alan Kay's recommended readling list, who i greatly admire: http://www.squeakland.org/resources/books/readingList.jsp http://www.squeakland.org/resources/books/readingList.jsp It's here for anyone who wants a video of the book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mtc_CBTIeI&list=PLeAgmjjzpwpomJi2SRQSY8kbgT091vxVy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mtc_CBTIeI&list=PLeAgmjjzpw...
- cheschire 7y agoI encourage my devs with a similar mantra: treat your code like cattle, not like pets.
- anonsivalley652 7y agoThe "big idea" folks typically go further by treating their ideas like their offspring and insulate critiques of those ideas from the big, scary world of reality. Also, making an analogy to "cattle" sends the wrong message to the demographics of developers these days; I would replace that with something inanimate.
- BookPage 7y agohow about crops? or something like bonsai vs cacti?
- solipsism 7y agoHouseplants vs crops?
- mandelbrotwurst 7y agoNot all of us are fearful of apt metaphors. Hard eye roll. Excuse me while I kill some processes.
- catach 7y agoA metaphor ceases to be apt when a good portion of your audience interprets your meaning in the opposite way that you intended.
- mandelbrotwurst 7y agoI suppose whether that's true depends on whether you are looking for a metaphor that is technically accurate and descriptive or one that is perceived as such by your audience. I'm aware that there is value in both of those, and as such am willing to strive for both, but moreso to the extent that I trust that those with whom I am communicating are doing the same. In this case, I'm not sure that good faith is there.
- anonsivalley652 7y agoCarmack described the wantrepreneur. Beware the "idea guy," find the head-down guy or gal who is smart and a workaholic; people who tend to work more than socialize, fall in love with ideas and talk about work that they're not doing. There's no free lunch and schlepping where others give up or aren't willing to invest energy, time and money are also key. If something is relatively easy for you but more difficult for most others, that's a good signal. And if that something becomes very difficult for you, think of how hard it would be for someone else... that has the potential to be a defensible business.
- scarejunba 7y agoDeveloping that skill is really hard. It isn't the methodology. It's that you need the pervasive paranoiac scientific desire to poke holes in the idea. And that's very hard for most people. Carmack applies evidence to develop his posteriors very well. i.e. when evidence comes along for an idea you have, most people will say to themselves "Even though that's true it's not enough" or "but that doesn't disprove it". In fact, I'd hypothesize (with poor evidence) that people who do not alter their posteriors when presented with evidence cannot do this at all. And that's very common - because lots of evidence won't disprove anything, it'll only make it less likely. If you never alter your posteriors you will dismiss it. I know I sometimes fall in love with an idea and this happens. By the way, here's a quick read of the idea if you can't read the video: https://amasad.me/carmack https://amasad.me/carmack
- sjg007 7y agoThe best way to get over a brilliant idea is to start working on it. Hopefully, that work inspires another idea and so on and so forth until you end up with something real.
- rationalfaith 7y agoThis guy successes!
- samsquire 7y agoIdeas are so valuable, the meme that ideas are worthless without implementations needs to die.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- gmfawcett 7y agoCan you explain why you think that? What makes ideas valuable without implementations?
- davidivadavid 7y agoThat's kind of a loaded question. The value of an idea is in its potential for impact once implemented.
- yocheckitdawg 7y agoGood novel ideas that identify a consumer/user demand are always high value whether implemented or not. Zero to One by Peter Thiel basically implies this with his "Competition is for suckers, monopoly is where it is at". Yet how many businesses and tech companies get founded doing the same think everyone else is doing (or at least half a dozen competitors)? Truly novel ideas, truly thinking outside the box, truly seeing possibilities that aren't in existence is HARD. Extremely hard. I can understand why the idea that ideas without implementation is meaningless became so prominent, but that is mainly because most of the ideas people have have been had by 1000 other people so if you arne't implementing they aren't of any use. Whereas ideas that are truly novel are still extremely valuable because it gives all the hard workers something worthwhile to shoot for (as opposed to yet another social media app). As an example think of blockchain. Fairly basic from a techincal or implementation sense, it is the idea that was really novel. Even if Bitcoin hadn't been made, the idea itself is enormously valuable. There are 1000s of ideas out there like this waiting for a novel thinker to draw them out of the fog and make them clearly visible.
- hcarvalhoalves 7y ago
- th0ma5 7y agoI had read that antifragile is always such until something exposes a previously unassumed fragility?
- keanzu 7y agoAntifragile: "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. According to Taleb, the opposite of fragile is antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile
- toohotatopic 7y agoDo those things become stronger or do they just remain while everything else collapses? How much is this about being the real deal? In crisis, bullshit doesn't work anymore.
- ptah 7y agofrom reading his book on the topic, my understanding is that they become strionger. he would classify "just remaining" as robust as opposed to antifragile
- juskrey 7y agoHow about really antifragile generation: you just quit 5/9 job, have a long walk, take a good nap, and ideas come by themselves. Carmack, with all of his all-work no-rest culture, is hardy antifragile. Or did he change his attitude?
- rbasu 7y agoFrom what I have read, he always advocated 8 hours of rest, without which his productivity decreases, this tweet being a recent one: https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1232668344307810305 https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1232668344307810305 As he said in this tweet, even with 8 hours of sleep, there's a lot of time left per week and people like Carmack makes the most out of those remaining hours.
- juskrey 7y agoI think idea of 8 hour sleep can be revolutionary only for someone born in the office cubicle.
- rbasu 7y agoI know a lot of people outside the normal 9-5 job who overwork themselves and takes less than 8 hours of sleep though. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that people just react to stuff and it's easy to come up with short term thought process of "less sleep = more work", instead of working fewer hours one day in order to keep long focussed hours in the long term. Also, some people can't afford 8 hours of sleep, as far as I have seen, unfortunately.
- taeric 7y agoI think this conflicts a little with my view of antifragile. Or maybe it compliments it. Can't say clearly. My view is that having multiple ways to do things often leads to an antifragile system. Reason being that busting one way only busts that one way. This plays out in the likes of timsort. The point is to pivot not just the same strategy on the data, but to pick your strategy on the data.
- tuckerpo 7y agoAh, fresh (to us) Carmack babble. Perfect way to spend a Friday night.