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The uprising in egypt was relatively peaceful. The media spotlight was on and Mubarak may have restrained from using force to save his own skin. Comparing the t

by sudonim 16y ago

The uprising in egypt was relatively peaceful. The media spotlight was on and Mubarak may have restrained from using force to save his own skin. Comparing the two because Egypt also shut down the internet is natural, but Mubarak is not Qaddafi. Even if the internet shut down is ineffective at quashing dissent, it seems unlikely that Libya's path will be at all similar to Egypt.

hasenj 16y ago
I think there is a very crucial similarity: there are signs that the military is refusing to shoot their own people. It's why ultimately the revolution in Egypt worked.
- stcredzero 16y ago
  It's a great precedent, especially if you're the military and you want to be rid of the dictator and grab power yourself.
mitko 16y ago
indeed if you tune in to twitter channel #lybia you can hear a lot about shootings. Tweets say that there are ~500 shot people in Lybia. Disclaimer: I don't use twitter, but I don't know of any other real time source of info.
krschultz 16y ago
Unfortunately the protesters will pay the price. I'm not sure there is anything the rest of the world can do to help, or at least the US, because foreign military force delegitimizes any home grown revolution. When the group in power are willing to use deadly force the protesters won't be able to win based on numbers only. If Egypt's military had crushed the protesters I doubt it would have turned out the same way.
- danenania 16y ago
  Even if it's true that the protesters can't win in a straight up battle, time is on their side, and there is no workable long term strategy for a government when the mass of its people are against it and a large segment is willing to brave gunfire and die for their rights. The regime can take the whole country down with them, but they can't regain control. Every bureaucracy including the military will rot from the inside as people see the essential brutality of the state unmasked and defect at all levels. There will be strikes and disobedience at every level. A state cannot function in this way for long regardless of how much firepower it commands, if for no other reason than eventually it will simply go broke. So long Gadhafi.
- thematt 16y ago
  There are lots of things the US can do to support a home grown revolution without directly sending in our military. In fact, we have multiple three letter agencies that specialize in exactly that type of support.
  - pyre 16y ago
    And we've seen how well that's worked in the past... If there is even a whiff of the CIA helping out the protesters a good chunk of the Middle East will chalk up the whole revolution to the US meddling in the Middle East. I think that would detract from it's legitimacy and prevent the sentiment from spreading to other countries.
    - deleted 16y ago
      [deleted]
- jonpaul 16y ago
  While you may have a point. There was this one time when a foreign military helped a homegrown revolution and it seemed to work out alright.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revolutionary_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revoluti...
  - hammerdr 16y ago
    One key point: we were asking the French to help.
    - jonpaul 16y ago
      http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:m51jMMmSOm0J:www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/20/libya.protests/index.html%3Feref%3Drss_latest%26utm_source%3Dfeedburner%26utm_medium%3Dfeed%26utm_campaign%3DFeed%253A%2Brss%252Fcnn_latest%2B(RSS%253A%2BMost%2BRecent)+obama+protests+site:cnn.com&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:m51jMMm... I had to use a Google cache article because when I click the original CNN link it goes to a new updated article. The quote: "We have no freedom here," she said. "I speak to all the world, to America, to Mr. Obama: Please help us. We (did) nothing. We want to live a good life." Not that I support an interventionist policy, but this was shared to refute your point.
      - hammerdr 16y ago
        I'm not fully cognizant of the situation. I wasn't saying that the Libyans aren't asking, I was just pointing out a key element that made the French intervention a fruitful one. However, there are varying degrees of asking for help. The American revolutionaries were sending formal representatives to France to plead their case. As far as I know, there is one person pleading for help being quoted by a reporter. That's a bit different.
qeorge 16y ago
Mubarak may have restrained from using force to save his own skin My understanding is that he did order the military to attack the protesters, and they refused. At that point, his focus probably shifted to just getting out alive.
- panacea 16y ago
  "At that point, his focus probably shifted to just getting out alive." And with as much fiat currency credits as he could.
  - brc 16y ago
    I would be willing to bet he didn't leave with any paper based currency. I'm guessing that, like the Tunisian president, part of the delay was loading the gold into his vehicles for departure. When fleeing despots flee, they take the original monetary unit with them. Universally accepted, not subject to government induced devaluations and virtually untraceable : Gold.
    - code_duck 16y ago
      I'd imagine Mubarak has plenty of of Euros and USD in Swiss bank accounts, which he probably was working on transferring to backup accounts for the past few weeks.

by sudonim 16y ago

hasenj 16y ago

I think there is a very crucial similarity: there are signs that the military is refusing to shoot their own people. It's why ultimately the revolution in Egypt worked.

stcredzero 16y ago
It's a great precedent, especially if you're the military and you want to be rid of the dictator and grab power yourself.

mitko 16y ago

indeed if you tune in to twitter channel #lybia you can hear a lot about shootings. Tweets say that there are ~500 shot people in Lybia. Disclaimer: I don't use twitter, but I don't know of any other real time source of info.

krschultz 16y ago

Unfortunately the protesters will pay the price. I'm not sure there is anything the rest of the world can do to help, or at least the US, because foreign military force delegitimizes any home grown revolution. When the group in power are willing to use deadly force the protesters won't be able to win based on numbers only. If Egypt's military had crushed the protesters I doubt it would have turned out the same way.

danenania 16y ago
Even if it's true that the protesters can't win in a straight up battle, time is on their side, and there is no workable long term strategy for a government when the mass of its people are against it and a large segment is willing to brave gunfire and die for their rights. The regime can take the whole country down with them, but they can't regain control. Every bureaucracy including the military will rot from the inside as people see the essential brutality of the state unmasked and defect at all levels. There will be strikes and disobedience at every level. A state cannot function in this way for long regardless of how much firepower it commands, if for no other reason than eventually it will simply go broke. So long Gadhafi.
thematt 16y ago
There are lots of things the US can do to support a home grown revolution without directly sending in our military. In fact, we have multiple three letter agencies that specialize in exactly that type of support.
- pyre 16y ago
  And we've seen how well that's worked in the past... If there is even a whiff of the CIA helping out the protesters a good chunk of the Middle East will chalk up the whole revolution to the US meddling in the Middle East. I think that would detract from it's legitimacy and prevent the sentiment from spreading to other countries.
  - deleted 16y ago
    [deleted]
jonpaul 16y ago
While you may have a point. There was this one time when a foreign military helped a homegrown revolution and it seemed to work out alright.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revolutionary_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revoluti...
- hammerdr 16y ago
  One key point: we were asking the French to help.
  - jonpaul 16y ago
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:m51jMMmSOm0J:www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/20/libya.protests/index.html%3Feref%3Drss_latest%26utm_source%3Dfeedburner%26utm_medium%3Dfeed%26utm_campaign%3DFeed%253A%2Brss%252Fcnn_latest%2B(RSS%253A%2BMost%2BRecent)+obama+protests+site:cnn.com&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:m51jMMm... I had to use a Google cache article because when I click the original CNN link it goes to a new updated article. The quote: "We have no freedom here," she said. "I speak to all the world, to America, to Mr. Obama: Please help us. We (did) nothing. We want to live a good life." Not that I support an interventionist policy, but this was shared to refute your point.
    - hammerdr 16y ago
      I'm not fully cognizant of the situation. I wasn't saying that the Libyans aren't asking, I was just pointing out a key element that made the French intervention a fruitful one. However, there are varying degrees of asking for help. The American revolutionaries were sending formal representatives to France to plead their case. As far as I know, there is one person pleading for help being quoted by a reporter. That's a bit different.

qeorge 16y ago

Mubarak may have restrained from using force to save his own skin My understanding is that he did order the military to attack the protesters, and they refused. At that point, his focus probably shifted to just getting out alive.

panacea 16y ago
"At that point, his focus probably shifted to just getting out alive." And with as much fiat currency credits as he could.
- brc 16y ago
  I would be willing to bet he didn't leave with any paper based currency. I'm guessing that, like the Tunisian president, part of the delay was loading the gold into his vehicles for departure. When fleeing despots flee, they take the original monetary unit with them. Universally accepted, not subject to government induced devaluations and virtually untraceable : Gold.
  - code_duck 16y ago
    I'd imagine Mubarak has plenty of of Euros and USD in Swiss bank accounts, which he probably was working on transferring to backup accounts for the past few weeks.