4 ms·

This could easily diverge into a political discussion which should be avoided; but it should be said this system has been in place and working for decades now.

by elhudy 7y ago

This could easily diverge into a political discussion which should be avoided; but it should be said this system has been in place and working for decades now. Just as we don't see other diseases spread more swiftly within the US due to its sick leave laws (or lack thereof) it's unlikely that we will see the coronavirus do the same. Take a look at the 2009 flu pandemic. It hit the US hard, but per capita it's not even top ten. Much of Europe is. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country

HarryHirsch 7y ago
The numbers in that table don't make sense. Belgium has 20.6 confirmed cases per 1000 inhabitants and neighbouring Germany only 2.3? Meanwhile, Wikipedia's article on the 2009 flu in the US says that 60 million people (out of 300 million) caught the disease. It seems that everyone is counting something else. However, the 2009 swine flu wasn't particularly deadly. CDC estimates about 0.001 % of the world's population dying as a result of respiratory complications: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi.... The US, according to Wikipedia, had 12000 deaths. The coronavirus is going to be orders of magnitude worse, and the current informal arrangements in the US will be overwhelmed.
- elhudy 7y ago
  >The coronavirus is going to be orders of magnitude worse, and the current informal arrangements in the US will be overwhelmed. Are you suggesting that more deadly diseases are more likely to spread among the population per capita? I had thought we were discussing whether the lack of mandated sick days enabled higher spread of infectious diseases.
  - HarryHirsch 7y ago
    I'm saying that most everyone caught swine flu and many were working through it. With something more deadly that won't be tolerated, besides pneumonia seems to be a complication in 20 % of the cases and recovery is often slow.
    - elhudy 7y ago
      That makes sense. We aren't currently sure what the death rate is though. It's extremely unlikely that all cases are being reported in China, which reduces the denominator and falsely inflates the rate. If you take Italy as example rather than China, there are 400+ cases reported, likely more existing unreported, but only 12 deaths. That's a .03% rate conservatively which is about the same as the flu (.05%), if we assume (darkly) that a few more people will die.
    - elhudy 7y ago
      I don't know how to downvote myself or edit my comment but you're right - in revisiting this after my coffee my math was way off! Crossing our fingers than many cases are asymptomatic enough that they aren't being counted towards this "confirmed cases" total.

by elhudy 7y ago

HarryHirsch 7y ago

The numbers in that table don't make sense. Belgium has 20.6 confirmed cases per 1000 inhabitants and neighbouring Germany only 2.3? Meanwhile, Wikipedia's article on the 2009 flu in the US says that 60 million people (out of 300 million) caught the disease. It seems that everyone is counting something else. However, the 2009 swine flu wasn't particularly deadly. CDC estimates about 0.001 % of the world's population dying as a result of respiratory complications: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi.... The US, according to Wikipedia, had 12000 deaths. The coronavirus is going to be orders of magnitude worse, and the current informal arrangements in the US will be overwhelmed.

elhudy 7y ago
>The coronavirus is going to be orders of magnitude worse, and the current informal arrangements in the US will be overwhelmed. Are you suggesting that more deadly diseases are more likely to spread among the population per capita? I had thought we were discussing whether the lack of mandated sick days enabled higher spread of infectious diseases.
- HarryHirsch 7y ago
  I'm saying that most everyone caught swine flu and many were working through it. With something more deadly that won't be tolerated, besides pneumonia seems to be a complication in 20 % of the cases and recovery is often slow.
  - elhudy 7y ago
    That makes sense. We aren't currently sure what the death rate is though. It's extremely unlikely that all cases are being reported in China, which reduces the denominator and falsely inflates the rate. If you take Italy as example rather than China, there are 400+ cases reported, likely more existing unreported, but only 12 deaths. That's a .03% rate conservatively which is about the same as the flu (.05%), if we assume (darkly) that a few more people will die.
  - elhudy 7y ago
    I don't know how to downvote myself or edit my comment but you're right - in revisiting this after my coffee my math was way off! Crossing our fingers than many cases are asymptomatic enough that they aren't being counted towards this "confirmed cases" total.