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These numbers are bullshit and I'm tired of having to repeat this everywhere. The Chinese government is lying about infections and there are legal and infrastru

These numbers are bullshit and I'm tired of having to repeat this everywhere. The Chinese government is lying about infections and there are legal and infrastructural issues which prevent the vast majority of cases from being diagnosed and reported, even if there wasn't an ongoing official attempt at minimization. The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the entire United States. They will very quickly be overwhelmed, exactly as they are in China, SK, Iran, Italy...the list is getting too long to keep up with. At that point the mortality rate approaches 15%. This is not the god damn flu and people who dismiss it as such are being hugely irresponsible. 1. I believe this article is referencing the published paper in Lancet that I was referring to https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/27/breaking-news-coronavirus-15-fatality-rate-83-infection-rate/ https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/27/breaking-news-coronaviru... Also bear in mind that the study is out of China, so it is most likely extremely conservative because the government has been publicly cracking down on anyone "spreading rumors" about the virus. The peoples' collective, deliberate obviousness at this point is unbelievable. Edit: wait a minute, I don't think I've even seen the paper I linked yet. This one reports 32% ICU admission rate and 15% death with lasting damage in recovered patients. Some 2 dozen Chinese authors to boot. Get your fucking heads out of the sand! https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

jsight 7y ago
> The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. This is completely implausible.
- empath75 7y ago
  Why do you say that? That’s what all the reporting says. That’s why the health care systems were overwhelmed.
  - jennyyang 7y ago
    Not at all. The number of serious/critical outside of China are about 3% and mostly elderly people.
  - jsight 7y ago
    We are seeing a lot of cases that are only being discovered after the patient has had symptoms for some period of time. It seems like a number of these cases have been mild enough that a lot of people would not have even sought care. The idea that 1/6 cases are "critical" just doesn't align with this reality.
    - tristanj 7y ago
      A 15% critical rate is very plausible. A widely shared report [1] on Chinese media described how an entire family died to virus. A man, his sister, mother, and father all died to the coronavirus. His wife is in serious condition. Using the reported death rates posted above, the odds of this happening are 1.3% * 1.3% * 8% * 8% = 1/924556. That's nearly 1 in a million. I concede that the medical system in Wuhan was overwhelmed, and these 5 patients did not have access to medical care. [1] https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-family-show-danger-of-wuhans-home-quarantine-policy-101516690.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-f...
      - username90 7y ago
        No it is not, Diamond Princess is the only controlled environment we have and it didn't have even close to 15% critical rate.
        jsight 7y ago
        Exactly... also see this report: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520 The situation is horrible, but look at the hospital workers rate of infection vs mortality. Even horrible things can still be made to look more horrible.
pmoriarty 7y ago
"The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the entire United States. They will very quickly be overwhelmed, exactly as they are in China, SK, Iran, Italy...the list is getting too long to keep up with. At that point the mortality rate approaches 15%" It's not just an ICU severely ill people need, but artificial respirators. I haven't seen numbers on how many the US has, but it may not be enough. In addition, this illness has the potential to take a significant amount of medical personnel out of commission, either directly by making them sick or killing them, through attrition as they overwork themselves and collapse (we've been seen all of the above happen in China). So even if you get in to an ICU you could still be screwed. That said, the numbers coming out of China are just not trustworthy right now. We'll have to wait and see how bad it is outside of China (assuming enough people get tested and the tests actually work, neither of which are a certainty yet).
ClumsyPilot 7y ago
Thank you for this post and pointing out the fact that we will be out of ICU beds very quickly. The complacency of ignorance on this really beggars belief.

jsight 7y ago

> The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. This is completely implausible.

empath75 7y ago
Why do you say that? That’s what all the reporting says. That’s why the health care systems were overwhelmed.
- jennyyang 7y ago
  Not at all. The number of serious/critical outside of China are about 3% and mostly elderly people.
- jsight 7y ago
  We are seeing a lot of cases that are only being discovered after the patient has had symptoms for some period of time. It seems like a number of these cases have been mild enough that a lot of people would not have even sought care. The idea that 1/6 cases are "critical" just doesn't align with this reality.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    A 15% critical rate is very plausible. A widely shared report [1] on Chinese media described how an entire family died to virus. A man, his sister, mother, and father all died to the coronavirus. His wife is in serious condition. Using the reported death rates posted above, the odds of this happening are 1.3% * 1.3% * 8% * 8% = 1/924556. That's nearly 1 in a million. I concede that the medical system in Wuhan was overwhelmed, and these 5 patients did not have access to medical care. [1] https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-family-show-danger-of-wuhans-home-quarantine-policy-101516690.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-f...
    - username90 7y ago
      No it is not, Diamond Princess is the only controlled environment we have and it didn't have even close to 15% critical rate.
      - jsight 7y ago
        Exactly... also see this report: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520 The situation is horrible, but look at the hospital workers rate of infection vs mortality. Even horrible things can still be made to look more horrible.

pmoriarty 7y ago

"The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the entire United States. They will very quickly be overwhelmed, exactly as they are in China, SK, Iran, Italy...the list is getting too long to keep up with. At that point the mortality rate approaches 15%" It's not just an ICU severely ill people need, but artificial respirators. I haven't seen numbers on how many the US has, but it may not be enough. In addition, this illness has the potential to take a significant amount of medical personnel out of commission, either directly by making them sick or killing them, through attrition as they overwork themselves and collapse (we've been seen all of the above happen in China). So even if you get in to an ICU you could still be screwed. That said, the numbers coming out of China are just not trustworthy right now. We'll have to wait and see how bad it is outside of China (assuming enough people get tested and the tests actually work, neither of which are a certainty yet).

ClumsyPilot 7y ago

Thank you for this post and pointing out the fact that we will be out of ICU beds very quickly. The complacency of ignorance on this really beggars belief.