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Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the y

Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the year after.

bluGill 7y ago
If there is an effective vaccine I'm expecting a lot of people to be drafted to create facilities to make it in quantity. (Assuming it can't be made in the same process that the current flu shot is made). If society puts its mind to it building this infrastructure can be done very fast - it won't be the most cost effective build in ordinary times, but it will get the job done.
- geophile 7y ago
  I don't know what country you are from, but mine (USA) has lost its ability to set its mind to anything. It can't even be said to have a rational mind any longer.
  - bluGill 7y ago
    Don't be so pessimistic. I'm from the USA: we might be divided (and people like you are pushing the divide!), but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. There just isn't a collective goal pushing us all in one direction. Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.
    - geophile 7y ago
      > but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. Please provide examples. - We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways. - Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become? - How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least. - The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in this country, is a GoFundMe campaign. - The world financial system was nearly destroyed by inadequately regulated US "finanice industry innovation" in 2008. As Paul Volcker said the following year: “the ATM has been the only useful innovation in banking for the past 20 years”. - Facebook and Google -- the most successful US companies in history, I think, have destroyed privacy, and are now bringing down democracy. Oh, right, I forgot, Facebook is connecting people. Point for you. Seriously. What has this country done recently that proves we can do anything productive any longer?
      - bluGill 7y ago
        Take a look at are highways. Despite constant complaints about them being in trouble, we build a lot of them including many bridges. Take a look at your city there is someplace in the metro area they are building something big. Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can) Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.
        geophile 7y ago
        WE DON'T NEED THEM?!?!?! OK, Candide, you may be living in the best of all possible worlds, but I would rather be in one where health care was guaranteed. And yes, while most are "insured", that insurance is often unreliable. This is a solvable, society-wide project, to use your phrase. This country is incapable of pulling it off. (And some of those people resorting to gofundme have insurance, but it is inadequate.) Look at the superbug problem. We are heading to a time in which antibiotics just no longer work, and what are now minor infections will be fatal. Where is the impetus to solve this society-wide (even world-wide) project? It is not in the financial interest of pharma companies to solve the problem, so we don't. You would think that society would be interested in solving this problem by structuring incentives appropriately. It doesn't happen. What about climate change? Miami is starting to drown. Other coastal cities are not far behind. The Paris climate agreement is pretty weak, and this country couldn't even stomach that. Get your head out of the sand.
        pmoriarty 7y ago
        I know we're all stressed right now, and you make some good points, but your post would be a lot stronger and more welcome here if you took out the ad-homonyms and insults.
- tomatocracy 7y ago
  Vaccines are biological in nature. It's very possible that time will be a much more meaningful factor than people or equipment in producing enough of a vaccine to cover sufficiently many people so "massively parallelizing" the process may not help with the lead time to vaccine availability, only with quantity when it does become available (assuming an effective vaccine is found). Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.

Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the year after.

bluGill 7y ago

If there is an effective vaccine I'm expecting a lot of people to be drafted to create facilities to make it in quantity. (Assuming it can't be made in the same process that the current flu shot is made). If society puts its mind to it building this infrastructure can be done very fast - it won't be the most cost effective build in ordinary times, but it will get the job done.

geophile 7y ago
I don't know what country you are from, but mine (USA) has lost its ability to set its mind to anything. It can't even be said to have a rational mind any longer.
- bluGill 7y ago
  Don't be so pessimistic. I'm from the USA: we might be divided (and people like you are pushing the divide!), but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. There just isn't a collective goal pushing us all in one direction. Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.
  - geophile 7y ago
    > but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. Please provide examples. - We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways. - Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become? - How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least. - The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in this country, is a GoFundMe campaign. - The world financial system was nearly destroyed by inadequately regulated US "finanice industry innovation" in 2008. As Paul Volcker said the following year: “the ATM has been the only useful innovation in banking for the past 20 years”. - Facebook and Google -- the most successful US companies in history, I think, have destroyed privacy, and are now bringing down democracy. Oh, right, I forgot, Facebook is connecting people. Point for you. Seriously. What has this country done recently that proves we can do anything productive any longer?
    - bluGill 7y ago
      Take a look at are highways. Despite constant complaints about them being in trouble, we build a lot of them including many bridges. Take a look at your city there is someplace in the metro area they are building something big. Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can) Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.
      - geophile 7y ago
        WE DON'T NEED THEM?!?!?! OK, Candide, you may be living in the best of all possible worlds, but I would rather be in one where health care was guaranteed. And yes, while most are "insured", that insurance is often unreliable. This is a solvable, society-wide project, to use your phrase. This country is incapable of pulling it off. (And some of those people resorting to gofundme have insurance, but it is inadequate.) Look at the superbug problem. We are heading to a time in which antibiotics just no longer work, and what are now minor infections will be fatal. Where is the impetus to solve this society-wide (even world-wide) project? It is not in the financial interest of pharma companies to solve the problem, so we don't. You would think that society would be interested in solving this problem by structuring incentives appropriately. It doesn't happen. What about climate change? Miami is starting to drown. Other coastal cities are not far behind. The Paris climate agreement is pretty weak, and this country couldn't even stomach that. Get your head out of the sand.
        pmoriarty 7y ago
        I know we're all stressed right now, and you make some good points, but your post would be a lot stronger and more welcome here if you took out the ad-homonyms and insults.
tomatocracy 7y ago
Vaccines are biological in nature. It's very possible that time will be a much more meaningful factor than people or equipment in producing enough of a vaccine to cover sufficiently many people so "massively parallelizing" the process may not help with the lead time to vaccine availability, only with quantity when it does become available (assuming an effective vaccine is found). Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.