You're never going to get a useful answer to a question like this. If the market is efficient, which is a good default assumption, it's already factored in a we

You're never going to get a useful answer to a question like this. If the market is efficient, which is a good default assumption, it's already factored in a weighted average of possible outcomes. Anybody who can reliably spot inefficiencies in the market is too busy making ridiculous amounts of money to respond on HN.