3 ms·

Is there any sense for how accurate the case numbers are? I've been thinking about it and I can't fathom how we would know of every case. What percentage of a

Is there any sense for how accurate the case numbers are? I've been thinking about it and I can't fathom how we would know of every case. What percentage of adults who get the seasonal flu go see a doctor and get diagnosed, 10%? Coronavirus symptoms mimic the flu and can even by asymptomatic in people, meaning people can easily attribute symptoms to a bad cold/flu or not even notice them. On average someone with coronavirus spreads it to 3-4 other people. It's estimated that the virus started infecting people in early January, but China didn't start quarantining people until 3 weeks later or so. I just don't see the math adding up, all it takes is a handful of people not seeking treatment in order for it to start spreading without our knowledge. There has to be thousands of additional cases around the world of that just aren't diagnosed, which is how we're suddenly seeing unexpected diagnoses in places without any previous outbreak like Iran.

jacquesm 7y ago
> It's estimated that the virus started infecting people in early January December 2019. That's why it is called COVID-19 to begin with, because it was first detected in 2019.
davidw 7y ago
We can't even test for it properly in the US right now: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/25/cdc-coronavirus-test/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/25/cdc-coronav... And yeah, there are going to be a bunch of people here who won't seek help unless it gets really bad, and who will go to their jobs even if they feel crummy because they need the money, thus spreading it farther and more rapidly. BTW, we were warned: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-trump-administration-is-ill-prepared-for-a-global-pandemic/2017/04/08/59605bc6-1a49-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-t...
- mikeyouse 7y ago
  Our healthcare system is really going to bite us here too - people are extremely hesitant to seek medical care since there's such a crapshoot of costs that you could pay. (e.g. the story of the person who was fearful after developing flu systems after traveling to China so he checked into the ER for testing and got a $3,500 bill that 'might' be knocked down to $1,400 if he provides 3 years of medical history to prove it wasn't a preexisting condition: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article24047680...) So we have people who don't want to miss work and people who won't seek medical care unless they're in the later stages of the disease to avoid thousands of dollars of cost. Hopefully it peters out but this could get really ugly.
jobigoud 7y ago
The US has tested a grand total of 445 persons since the beginning of the outbreak, according to this CDC page updated today, Feb 26. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html For comparison South Korea is testing several thousands per day. To a lot of people it's pretty obvious that there are a lot of undiagnosed cases in the wild. They are not testing anyone unless you are coming from a known risk area, which means by definition they can't detect local community outbreaks.

jacquesm 7y ago

> It's estimated that the virus started infecting people in early January December 2019. That's why it is called COVID-19 to begin with, because it was first detected in 2019.

davidw 7y ago

We can't even test for it properly in the US right now: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/25/cdc-coronavirus-test/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/25/cdc-coronav... And yeah, there are going to be a bunch of people here who won't seek help unless it gets really bad, and who will go to their jobs even if they feel crummy because they need the money, thus spreading it farther and more rapidly. BTW, we were warned: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-trump-administration-is-ill-prepared-for-a-global-pandemic/2017/04/08/59605bc6-1a49-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-t...

mikeyouse 7y ago
Our healthcare system is really going to bite us here too - people are extremely hesitant to seek medical care since there's such a crapshoot of costs that you could pay. (e.g. the story of the person who was fearful after developing flu systems after traveling to China so he checked into the ER for testing and got a $3,500 bill that 'might' be knocked down to $1,400 if he provides 3 years of medical history to prove it wasn't a preexisting condition: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article24047680...) So we have people who don't want to miss work and people who won't seek medical care unless they're in the later stages of the disease to avoid thousands of dollars of cost. Hopefully it peters out but this could get really ugly.

jobigoud 7y ago

The US has tested a grand total of 445 persons since the beginning of the outbreak, according to this CDC page updated today, Feb 26. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html For comparison South Korea is testing several thousands per day. To a lot of people it's pretty obvious that there are a lot of undiagnosed cases in the wild. They are not testing anyone unless you are coming from a known risk area, which means by definition they can't detect local community outbreaks.