COVID19 spreads by default. If you leave it alone, it will spread uncontrollably. China went from 0 to 79,000 confirmed cases in 2 months, despite running the l

COVID19 spreads by default. If you leave it alone, it will spread uncontrollably. China went from 0 to 79,000 confirmed cases in 2 months, despite running the largest and most extensive quarantine in human history. Sure, but note that they started the strict quarantine protocol after there are already > ten thousand ick people (and many more already exposed). With coronavirus, it's not possible to do this. The reason is that many people are asymptomatic for weeks, while at the same time passing the virus to other people. If you cannot identify infections before they have the chance to spread at a rate of >1, then the spread of the disease will by default be exponentia This is mostly speculation, maybe just applying basic things like hand washing, distance measures pushes it to <1 and it dies down eventually? Besides, we have no data about the rate of infection from people who does not show any symptoms (especially coughing).