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18% of cases, where the infected person both sought treatment and was actually tested. It is very likely that there are far more asymptomatic and mildly symptom

18% of cases, where the infected person both sought treatment and was actually tested. It is very likely that there are far more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people out there. The 18% number is mostly useless because it's a textbook example of selection bias.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> where the infected person both sought treatment and was successfully tested Isn't the same bias present in ILI (influenza-like illness) statistics?
- learc83 7y ago
  We've had time to do large population studies and build models to somewhat correct for this. Most of the death rates you're seeing throw around for COVID-19 are just naive number_dead / confirmed cases.
samvher 7y ago
Fair point, but WHO don't really seem to think that's the case. Dr Bruce Aylward (team lead of the WHO mission) noted that based on the large amount of disease screening that’s been done in China so far, there does not seem to be a huge number of mild cases that are going undetected. [1] [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-in-us-not-if-but-when-and-how-severe-cdc-says/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-i...
- learc83 7y ago
  If you read more on that. After he said that someone else from the WHO immediately contradicted him. "The claim was quickly challenged by an infectious diseases expert who serves on a committee that advises the WHO’s health emergencies program. Gary Kobinger, director of the Infectious Disease Research Center at Laval University in Quebec, said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild or symptom-free cases that are being missed. He pointed to the fact that outbreaks have popped up in countries far from China — including Iran and Italy — because people with mild infections were not detected and traveled to other places. 'There are mild cases that are undetected. This is why it’s spreading. Otherwise it would not be spreading because we would know where those cases are and they would be contained and that would be the end of it,' said Kobinger, who insisted that mild, undetected infections cannot be ruled out until people who haven’t been diagnosed with the illness can be tested for antibodies to the virus. 'As long as we do not have good serology data, I think that it is completely speculative to say that there are no undetected cases,' Kobinger said." What Dr. Aylward says makes no sense and reads more like a PR fluff piece designed to praise China to keep them happy, and as Kobinger points out he's probably wrong. From the same press conference he says this "If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China." Which is obviously bullshit.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago

> where the infected person both sought treatment and was successfully tested Isn't the same bias present in ILI (influenza-like illness) statistics?

learc83 7y ago
We've had time to do large population studies and build models to somewhat correct for this. Most of the death rates you're seeing throw around for COVID-19 are just naive number_dead / confirmed cases.

samvher 7y ago

Fair point, but WHO don't really seem to think that's the case. Dr Bruce Aylward (team lead of the WHO mission) noted that based on the large amount of disease screening that’s been done in China so far, there does not seem to be a huge number of mild cases that are going undetected. [1] [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-in-us-not-if-but-when-and-how-severe-cdc-says/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-i...

learc83 7y ago
If you read more on that. After he said that someone else from the WHO immediately contradicted him. "The claim was quickly challenged by an infectious diseases expert who serves on a committee that advises the WHO’s health emergencies program. Gary Kobinger, director of the Infectious Disease Research Center at Laval University in Quebec, said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild or symptom-free cases that are being missed. He pointed to the fact that outbreaks have popped up in countries far from China — including Iran and Italy — because people with mild infections were not detected and traveled to other places. 'There are mild cases that are undetected. This is why it’s spreading. Otherwise it would not be spreading because we would know where those cases are and they would be contained and that would be the end of it,' said Kobinger, who insisted that mild, undetected infections cannot be ruled out until people who haven’t been diagnosed with the illness can be tested for antibodies to the virus. 'As long as we do not have good serology data, I think that it is completely speculative to say that there are no undetected cases,' Kobinger said." What Dr. Aylward says makes no sense and reads more like a PR fluff piece designed to praise China to keep them happy, and as Kobinger points out he's probably wrong. From the same press conference he says this "If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China." Which is obviously bullshit.