3 ms·

> Am I overreacting? Probably not. Mortality rate aside (anywhere from 2% to 5% depending on source), the biggest issue is hospitalization rate (about 20% bas

> Am I overreacting? Probably not. Mortality rate aside (anywhere from 2% to 5% depending on source), the biggest issue is hospitalization rate (about 20% based on Chinese numbers). No country on the planet could handle that hospitalization rate all at once. The priority going forward is about managing spread. Keeping spread as slow as possible so the absolute number of people who need to be hospitalized at any particular point in time is as small as possible. That makes it possible for hospitals to keep up and keep the mortality rate as low as possible. You want to have a trickle of patients coming in over a very long time, not a one-day tsunami. The other thing is that this will absolutely result in shortages. China has already banned the export of many medical supplies and as this sort of nationalism spreads the shortages will be more tangible. New supply chains will eventually emerge for many things, but they will take a while to do so. If you need any medications, now is probably a good time to stock up with as much as reasonably possible.

cylinder 7y ago
And how are we going to setup temporary hospitals when portable bed factories are probably all in China?
- dx034 7y ago
  The problem is even that you can't properly prevent catching it if people are isolated at home since masks and disinfectants start being sold out pretty much world wide.
hnick 7y ago
Do we know how many of those 20% would die without hospital support? I assume the 2-5% takes into account treatment or is that excluding it?
- koheripbal 7y ago
  About 4%. That's the death rate in Wuhan with the system maxed out. The limitation is actually mechanical ventilators.
- wklauss 7y ago
  That 2%-5% is based on the current detected cases and deaths attributed to the virus. You can sense where the problem is. Much like the flu, most of the deaths are older people with weak inmune systems that go haywire. Right now, out of an abundance of caution, anyone with symptoms is being hospitalized, that includes people that normally wouldn't be if this was a normal flu season and they showed up at the doctor with same symptoms.

cylinder 7y ago

And how are we going to setup temporary hospitals when portable bed factories are probably all in China?

dx034 7y ago
The problem is even that you can't properly prevent catching it if people are isolated at home since masks and disinfectants start being sold out pretty much world wide.

hnick 7y ago

Do we know how many of those 20% would die without hospital support? I assume the 2-5% takes into account treatment or is that excluding it?

koheripbal 7y ago
About 4%. That's the death rate in Wuhan with the system maxed out. The limitation is actually mechanical ventilators.
wklauss 7y ago
That 2%-5% is based on the current detected cases and deaths attributed to the virus. You can sense where the problem is. Much like the flu, most of the deaths are older people with weak inmune systems that go haywire. Right now, out of an abundance of caution, anyone with symptoms is being hospitalized, that includes people that normally wouldn't be if this was a normal flu season and they showed up at the doctor with same symptoms.