3 ms·

> We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point an order* SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases

> We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point an order* SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases and ~2700 deaths.[2] It will be orders, plural, at some point, but remains to be seen how big (and I won't speculate on that). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SARS_-_Worldwide.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SA... [2] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

totalZero 7y ago
In my mind at least, all of these numbers are applesauce. Our ability to trust these numbers hinges on our ability to trust information reported by China's government and other authoritarian regimes (eg Iran and North Korea).
- SECProto 7y ago
  Numbers are suspect from everywhere. Most jurisdictions are only just beginning to test symptomatic patients who don't have a direct link to the initial outbreak locale. One of the difficulties of a disease with symptoms almost identical to the seasonal influenza. But having some numbers to compare is better than having none (or trusting gut instinct).
  - totalZero 7y ago
    For me, it's a question of false confidence. When you have no numbers, you have high confidence that you have low information. When you have some numbers that are reported as though they are very granular and accurate, you have extreme confidence that you have high information. The latter, in my view, is a more precarious position from which to make decisions.
aaron695 7y ago
No. It's orders of magnitudes. Look at the SARS timeline, it was > 100 times less at this point - https://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_07_04/en/ https://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_07_04/en/

3 ms·

> We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point an order* SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases

by SECProto 7y ago

totalZero 7y ago
In my mind at least, all of these numbers are applesauce. Our ability to trust these numbers hinges on our ability to trust information reported by China's government and other authoritarian regimes (eg Iran and North Korea).
- SECProto 7y ago
  Numbers are suspect from everywhere. Most jurisdictions are only just beginning to test symptomatic patients who don't have a direct link to the initial outbreak locale. One of the difficulties of a disease with symptoms almost identical to the seasonal influenza. But having some numbers to compare is better than having none (or trusting gut instinct).
  - totalZero 7y ago
    For me, it's a question of false confidence. When you have no numbers, you have high confidence that you have low information. When you have some numbers that are reported as though they are very granular and accurate, you have extreme confidence that you have high information. The latter, in my view, is a more precarious position from which to make decisions.
aaron695 7y ago
No. It's orders of magnitudes. Look at the SARS timeline, it was > 100 times less at this point - https://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_07_04/en/ https://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_07_04/en/