4 ms·

Whether or not this turns into a real pandemic I'm really curious how the world survives a real one in the sense of all the disruption. Sure some desk based jo

Whether or not this turns into a real pandemic I'm really curious how the world survives a real one in the sense of all the disruption. Sure some desk based jobs can be done at home but it seems like nearly every restaurant, bar, and store would likely go out of business. As would airlines, trains, maybe hotels. Grocery stores would have to go 100% delivery only? Maybe be open 24/7 so people can spread out? Or would I need to wear a hazmat suit to get food? Note: there was a family riding the bullet train in cheap hazmat suits a few days ago. I really have no idea. I suppose you can look at cities in China and see a full response. I see lots of people saying "prepare" but then list having a week of supplies. Seem more like you'd need 6 to 12 months of supplies. Unlike an earthquake a pandemic would hopefully not stop the water flow or electricity like say an earthquake might but conversely it will be much longer before it's declared safe to return to any normal routine.

mikekchar 7y ago
As much as I hate to say it like this, a pandemic is only going to kill something like 5% of the population at the top end. The Spanish flu in 1918 infected 500 million people, which was 27% of the population (according to Wikipedia). The death toll was about 40-50 million (possibly up to 100 million at worst). It was one of the most deadly worldwide infections in the history of the world, but probably killed less than 3% of the population. A pandemic is going to severely hurt the economy, but it won't completely stop it. It will not be the case that nothing will be produced for months on end. People will go to work. Farmers will produce food. There will be shops. But things will also be in short supply. Prices will probably rise. Poor people will be hit harder and there will probably be some famine (or at least more than there is now). But things will still continue. In an event like an earthquake, entire distribution lines are shut down because you can't physically get somewhere. With a pandemic, things will be in short supply because labour is in short supply.
- e_proxus 7y ago
  > Poor people will be hit harder and there will probably be some famine I wonder how the extreme wealth distribution today will affect this. Although looking at statistics [1] it seems it was even worse in 1922 (no numbers for 1918). [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth

mikekchar 7y ago

As much as I hate to say it like this, a pandemic is only going to kill something like 5% of the population at the top end. The Spanish flu in 1918 infected 500 million people, which was 27% of the population (according to Wikipedia). The death toll was about 40-50 million (possibly up to 100 million at worst). It was one of the most deadly worldwide infections in the history of the world, but probably killed less than 3% of the population. A pandemic is going to severely hurt the economy, but it won't completely stop it. It will not be the case that nothing will be produced for months on end. People will go to work. Farmers will produce food. There will be shops. But things will also be in short supply. Prices will probably rise. Poor people will be hit harder and there will probably be some famine (or at least more than there is now). But things will still continue. In an event like an earthquake, entire distribution lines are shut down because you can't physically get somewhere. With a pandemic, things will be in short supply because labour is in short supply.

e_proxus 7y ago
> Poor people will be hit harder and there will probably be some famine I wonder how the extreme wealth distribution today will affect this. Although looking at statistics [1] it seems it was even worse in 1922 (no numbers for 1918). [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth