6 ms·

It's been a little bit frustrating watching the evolution of this. Even today a lot of people are very unaware of whats coming and the preparations, at least fr

by erentz 7y ago

It's been a little bit frustrating watching the evolution of this. Even today a lot of people are very unaware of whats coming and the preparations, at least from what we can see on the outside, are woefully inadequate in the US and other countries. Back on Feb 10th the CDC had done 398 tests, it's now Feb 25th, 15 days later and they've only done 426 tests. The surveillance testing that was meant to be set up totally failed to work and still hasn't started. The virus is 3+ generations on in Italy where it's gone from no cases to 322 cases and 11 deaths in a few days, and now cases are showing up in neighboring countries. Expect a similar kind of surprise "outbreak" to appear here in the US once we eventually get testing capabilities up to speed. Probably the biggest disappointment has been the deliberate and dangerous misinformation that was spread online and on the news saying the flu was more dangerous. Most people I've spoken to have been under this false belief.

Donald 7y ago
Part of this is terrible communication on the part of the US government, specifically the CDC. * Watching their press conferences I have no idea how the average American comes away with concrete steps for preparation. The pressers seem mostly focused on laying out everything the HHS / CDC doesn't know and describing that the CDC "is assessing its own preparation" - suggesting they're still not prepared even though the situation has been building for weeks. * The COVID-19 section on their website is still focused on China even though the virus has obviously spread at this point to several countries. I suspect the virus itself is unavoidable at this point unless you're willing to walk around with eye protection, rubber gloves, an N95 respirator, etc. But it's critically important to suggest what counter measures (if any) the US can expect to employ, like imposed travel restrictions and curfews in affected areas, so Americans can adequately prepare supplies.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- smt88 7y ago
  One of my close friends works at the CDC and volunteered to join the Covid-19 response, which requires her to work 100 hrs/wk. I know HN is not supposed to be a political place, but you can't talk about Covid-19 without talking about politics. Elected officials in the US have an enormous amount of power over how an outbreak spreads here. They control budgets, budget allocations, and all the preparedness/response bureaucracies that are supposed to be ready for situations like this[1]. Per my friend, the Trump administration has been replacing mid-level appointees with political donors who have absolutely no idea what they're doing -- at best. In some cases, they're actively anti-government, so they're both malicious and incompetent. The CDC's response has been crippled by many of these appointees. This is most evident at the State Department. Despite CDC employees screaming at them not to let the Japanese cruise ship passengers into the country, they did it anyway[2]. And then you have the usual propaganda and denialism, such as Larry Kudlow claiming today that Covid-19 is contained[3]. There are a thousand ways Trumpism has fueled this crisis, and I can't summarize them all here, but there is a bipartisan outcry[4] over this issue that has had mixed success. I apologize again for the baldly politics-related post, but I think this issue highlights the limitations of HN's anti-politics moderation. It's very difficult to divorce issues of science, business, or (especially) society when politicians are major forces in all of them. 1. https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/483320-worried-about-coronavirus-tell-trump-to-reverse-cuts-to https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/483320-wo... 2. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-cruise-ship-us-passengers-against-cdc-advice.html https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-cruise-ship-us-passe... 3. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545343-kudlow-says-u-s-contained-coronavirus-cnbc https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545343-kudlow-says-u-s-contai... 4. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump...
  - downerending 7y ago
    > enormous amount of power over how an outbreak spreads Given what we're seeing in other countries, that seems doubtful. And based on the science we're hearing, it sounds like the most that can be hoped for is spreading the epidemic out over time some, which might allow resources like hospital beds to be better utilized.
stolenmerch 7y ago
I'm sorry, I don't at all follow your last sentence. The flu IS more dangerous. Upwards of 45 million people get the flu every single year, hundreds of thousands of those are hospitalized, and tens of thousands of those are killed by Influenza. I'm not at all seeing the "deliberate and dangerous misinformation."
- Rury 7y ago
  I think the OP intended dangerous to mean: likelihood of death if you catch the disease. Of which case, COVID19 is still looking to be ~20x more dangerous to catch than the flu.
  - stolenmerch 7y ago
    That certainly depends on where you are and your general health. But as it stands at the time of this writing, the mortality rate for COVID19 and Influenza are both about 2-3%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
    - bodhi_mind 7y ago
      Unless I'm reading this wrong, this is incorrect. The nih paper says that influenza deaths represent ~2% of all respiratory deaths, not a death rate. The CDC estimates the death rate of influenza is at most 0.65% (61k deaths and 9.3MM infected) and at least 0.026% (12k deaths and 45MM infections) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
    - tdfx 7y ago
      Important to remember that older and immunocompromised people are not always the only vulnerable ones. The Spanish flu had an unusual mortality pattern of killing young adults [1]. It also had an overall morality rate around 2%, which caused multiple years of health catastrophe around the entire world. We don't have enough information to say whether COVID19 will match the characteristics of something like the Spanish flu, but the signs are ominous. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatali...

by erentz 7y ago

Donald 7y ago

Part of this is terrible communication on the part of the US government, specifically the CDC. * Watching their press conferences I have no idea how the average American comes away with concrete steps for preparation. The pressers seem mostly focused on laying out everything the HHS / CDC doesn't know and describing that the CDC "is assessing its own preparation" - suggesting they're still not prepared even though the situation has been building for weeks. * The COVID-19 section on their website is still focused on China even though the virus has obviously spread at this point to several countries. I suspect the virus itself is unavoidable at this point unless you're willing to walk around with eye protection, rubber gloves, an N95 respirator, etc. But it's critically important to suggest what counter measures (if any) the US can expect to employ, like imposed travel restrictions and curfews in affected areas, so Americans can adequately prepare supplies.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
smt88 7y ago
One of my close friends works at the CDC and volunteered to join the Covid-19 response, which requires her to work 100 hrs/wk. I know HN is not supposed to be a political place, but you can't talk about Covid-19 without talking about politics. Elected officials in the US have an enormous amount of power over how an outbreak spreads here. They control budgets, budget allocations, and all the preparedness/response bureaucracies that are supposed to be ready for situations like this[1]. Per my friend, the Trump administration has been replacing mid-level appointees with political donors who have absolutely no idea what they're doing -- at best. In some cases, they're actively anti-government, so they're both malicious and incompetent. The CDC's response has been crippled by many of these appointees. This is most evident at the State Department. Despite CDC employees screaming at them not to let the Japanese cruise ship passengers into the country, they did it anyway[2]. And then you have the usual propaganda and denialism, such as Larry Kudlow claiming today that Covid-19 is contained[3]. There are a thousand ways Trumpism has fueled this crisis, and I can't summarize them all here, but there is a bipartisan outcry[4] over this issue that has had mixed success. I apologize again for the baldly politics-related post, but I think this issue highlights the limitations of HN's anti-politics moderation. It's very difficult to divorce issues of science, business, or (especially) society when politicians are major forces in all of them. 1. https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/483320-worried-about-coronavirus-tell-trump-to-reverse-cuts-to https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/483320-wo... 2. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-cruise-ship-us-passengers-against-cdc-advice.html https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-cruise-ship-us-passe... 3. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545343-kudlow-says-u-s-contained-coronavirus-cnbc https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545343-kudlow-says-u-s-contai... 4. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump...
- downerending 7y ago
  > enormous amount of power over how an outbreak spreads Given what we're seeing in other countries, that seems doubtful. And based on the science we're hearing, it sounds like the most that can be hoped for is spreading the epidemic out over time some, which might allow resources like hospital beds to be better utilized.

stolenmerch 7y ago

I'm sorry, I don't at all follow your last sentence. The flu IS more dangerous. Upwards of 45 million people get the flu every single year, hundreds of thousands of those are hospitalized, and tens of thousands of those are killed by Influenza. I'm not at all seeing the "deliberate and dangerous misinformation."

Rury 7y ago
I think the OP intended dangerous to mean: likelihood of death if you catch the disease. Of which case, COVID19 is still looking to be ~20x more dangerous to catch than the flu.
- stolenmerch 7y ago
  That certainly depends on where you are and your general health. But as it stands at the time of this writing, the mortality rate for COVID19 and Influenza are both about 2-3%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
  - bodhi_mind 7y ago
    Unless I'm reading this wrong, this is incorrect. The nih paper says that influenza deaths represent ~2% of all respiratory deaths, not a death rate. The CDC estimates the death rate of influenza is at most 0.65% (61k deaths and 9.3MM infected) and at least 0.026% (12k deaths and 45MM infections) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
  - tdfx 7y ago
    Important to remember that older and immunocompromised people are not always the only vulnerable ones. The Spanish flu had an unusual mortality pattern of killing young adults [1]. It also had an overall morality rate around 2%, which caused multiple years of health catastrophe around the entire world. We don't have enough information to say whether COVID19 will match the characteristics of something like the Spanish flu, but the signs are ominous. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatali...