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We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over

We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the government, including a petition signed by 2500 academics and professionals demanding free speech. Iran is also in full blown crisis after seeing its first case only 3 weeks ago. Two of the U.S.'s primary enemies are in "wartime conditions" dealing with 2019-ncov. This is not just another flu. This is not SARS of MERS, this is well into Spanish Flu territory and it will test the modern geopolitical establishment and the resilience of human government. At the very least it will define a generation. Edit: check the CDC's Twitter. They've suggested that individuals ,including with families, start preparing "across all sectors" saying "disruption to everyday life might be severe". The steady stream of silent downvotes I've been receiving for a few days is a testament to how far people are willing to go to deny unpleasant realities. This is why there are panics and bank runs and why the stores will be empty in cities across the U.S. in the next week or so. It's already happening in Italy.

hodgesrm 7y ago
Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.
- allovernow 7y ago
  I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public statements of apology and disappearing others. If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some sort of reformation. Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the 1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.
esoterica 7y ago
What happens if the next viral outbreak occurs in the US? How is putting factories in one arbitrary geographic location any safer than putting them in another arbitrary location? If anything, this isn’t an argument against offshoring, it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Our entire industry is already forecasting shortages because literally every industry depends on raw components from china. The market is down 7 percent in 2 days. Not to mention the other indicators for the long overdue recession that we've been seeing for months now. > it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country That isn't entirely incorrect, but it still pays to have reserve domestic capacity, not just for events like this virus but to limit the power that other nations have over the U.S. in any case it's good that we're likely to reduce reliance on China after all of this is over.
  - esoterica 7y ago
    But moving factories to the US just decreases your exposure to China-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises at the expense of increasing your exposure to US-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises. You’re just trading one risk factor for another. Reducing economic relations with another country means you have less power and influence over them, not more. Having hundreds of billions of dollars worth of trade conducted between two countries and having millions of their jobs tied to international trade is a good incentive for them not to antagonize you too much.
    - allovernow 7y ago
      It's not black and white. Any local outbreak is less likely to disrupt your domestic operations to the same degree that foreign dependence would. Primarily because the U.S. is a first world country where any disaster is more likely to be better dealt with and when the event is local, you have you have more reliable information for handling a disaster when you are communicating with local channels. Particularly when you are in a country with free speech and limited government suppression. In any case, to ideally minimize risk you want both foreign and domestic production, even if that means some degree of subsidy for local operations. There are other downsides to excessive free trade of labor and goods as well - we need a happy medium.
humaniania 7y ago
You should try writing a sci-fi thriller novel.
- rodgerd 7y ago
  It's certainly some Crichton-level scientific and political expertise on display.
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
Of all the things I'm worried about with corona, the US having a chance to reassert global hegemony is not on the list. Not remotely.

hodgesrm 7y ago

Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.

allovernow 7y ago
I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public statements of apology and disappearing others. If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some sort of reformation. Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the 1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.

esoterica 7y ago

What happens if the next viral outbreak occurs in the US? How is putting factories in one arbitrary geographic location any safer than putting them in another arbitrary location? If anything, this isn’t an argument against offshoring, it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country.

allovernow 7y ago
Our entire industry is already forecasting shortages because literally every industry depends on raw components from china. The market is down 7 percent in 2 days. Not to mention the other indicators for the long overdue recession that we've been seeing for months now. > it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country That isn't entirely incorrect, but it still pays to have reserve domestic capacity, not just for events like this virus but to limit the power that other nations have over the U.S. in any case it's good that we're likely to reduce reliance on China after all of this is over.
- esoterica 7y ago
  But moving factories to the US just decreases your exposure to China-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises at the expense of increasing your exposure to US-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises. You’re just trading one risk factor for another. Reducing economic relations with another country means you have less power and influence over them, not more. Having hundreds of billions of dollars worth of trade conducted between two countries and having millions of their jobs tied to international trade is a good incentive for them not to antagonize you too much.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    It's not black and white. Any local outbreak is less likely to disrupt your domestic operations to the same degree that foreign dependence would. Primarily because the U.S. is a first world country where any disaster is more likely to be better dealt with and when the event is local, you have you have more reliable information for handling a disaster when you are communicating with local channels. Particularly when you are in a country with free speech and limited government suppression. In any case, to ideally minimize risk you want both foreign and domestic production, even if that means some degree of subsidy for local operations. There are other downsides to excessive free trade of labor and goods as well - we need a happy medium.

humaniania 7y ago

You should try writing a sci-fi thriller novel.

rodgerd 7y ago
It's certainly some Crichton-level scientific and political expertise on display.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago

Of all the things I'm worried about with corona, the US having a chance to reassert global hegemony is not on the list. Not remotely.