9 ms·

One of the wildest statistics I have seen from all of the fallout of this scandal is the fact that Clayton Kershaw had thrown 51 breaking balls and got zero mis

by gfs 7y ago

One of the wildest statistics I have seen from all of the fallout of this scandal is the fact that Clayton Kershaw had thrown 51 breaking balls and got zero missed swings. [0] I can't believe this didn't stand out sooner to analysts or if it just got glossed over. I still think hitting a round ball with a round bat is one of the hardest if not the hardest things to do in sports. And to not get a single swing and miss on a pitch that is around 70 - 80 MPH and breaking around half a foot is insane. [0]: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/f7w3yq/kershaw_threw_51_breaking_ballssliders_in_game_5/ https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/f7w3yq/kershaw_th...

rwmurrayVT 7y ago
To throw a mix of pitches and get zero missed swings on one of the biggest movement pitches in the league... is extremely unlikely. It's not like he was having an off day. His pitches were on point the entire time. It's not like his breaking balls weren't breaking like normal or anything else. It's hilarious to think he was tipping the pitches.
kodablah 7y ago
Darvish too was a swing-and-miss pitcher (albeit admittedly wild) who was openly mocked by Astros players. He struggled mightily during the series. Granted he had been trending downward which continued after the series.
- snarf21 7y ago
  But confidence is its own downward spiral.
- goatherders 7y ago
  He was mocked by one player and it had nothing to do with his pitching.
- adams_at 7y ago
  I'm the Astros fan who created http://signstealingscandal.com http://signstealingscandal.com, so I'm definitely not saying they didn't cheat. They cheated in the regular season (I documented over 1,100 bangs). And I'm almost certain the Astros were cheating during the 2017 World Series. An interesting point though, in Darvish's 2 World Series starts (1 away, 1 at home), he threw 3.1 innings and gave up 8 earned runs (4 in each game). The other Dodgers pitchers threw 13.2 innings in those games and gave up 0 earned runs. I think it's possible the Astros were stealing signs and Darvish was tipping pitches.
remarkEon 7y ago
That is incredible - I didn't know that. I remember watching him get absolutely lit up that series and thinking it was a little odd. But not that odd. Somewhat related, but Bolsinger is now suing the Astros over this, arguing that that really nasty outing he had against them blew up his career. No idea how solid of a case this is, and I know less than nothing about "sports law", but it's an interesting inflection point in the fallout from all this. https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/10/mike-bolsinger-lawsuit-astros-cheating-ruined-career https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/10/mike-bolsinger-lawsuit-ast...
truantbuick 7y ago
The Astros hid behind the guise that they were outstanding at picking up "tipping" from opposing pitchers. i.e. The smallest difference in a pitcher's delivery, imperceptible to you or I, would indicate what kind of pitch was coming. Writers often talked about how Alex Cora or Carlos Beltran or Jose Altuve were just remarkable "students of the game" and would figure it out and tell the rest of the lineup who would pounce upon it. It's kinda funny to look back on, because I remember lots of people producing videos where they would supposedly point out what the Astros were picking up on, and it never seemed very clear to me no matter how much they slowed down the footage. Another thing to note is that there's always fun baseball stats coming out. Kershaw getting no misses on his breaking balls would just be one of several interesting tidbits talked about the next day. It wouldn't really cause suspicion, as most people would just assume it indicates Kershaw was ineffective. For example, in the the 2017 ALCS, Astros pitcher Lance McCullers finished off the feared Yankees lineup by throwing 24 straight curveballs. This is no suggestion that Lance McCullers cheated; it's just an example that there's always odd stuff to reflect upon the next day.
- gfs 7y ago
  You're right, baseball has a statistic for everything so it's not always going to be caught. I forgot about that McCullers game. His curve was on another level that day!
  - LeifCarrotson 7y ago
    A statistic for everything, but little statistical or scientific literacy: so much data dredging goes on. When someone floats a number like "51 breaking balls with zero missed swings" or "24 straight curveballs" it's never presented with the rate at which this would be expected to occur in the pseudorandom/typical case. There are close to a million pitches thrown in each season. If someone flipped a coin for every pitch in the 2000s, they would probably get a string of 24 head and a string of 24 tails. Given the number of pitches that have been thrown, and the human tendency to stick with what's working, the only reason that there wouldn't be 24 of one pitch thrown in a row is that they'd deliberately change it up.
adams_at 7y ago
That's actually not true. There was one swing and miss. Tom Verducci said so himself in his SI article the day before he went on MLB Network and said there was zero (https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/20/astros-cheating-scandal-clayton-kershaw https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/20/astros-cheating-scandal-cl...). The Statcast data show one, too. I have no idea why Tom Verducci changed from one to zero. It really doesn't change his point if it's one or zero.
fredsanford 7y ago
This makes me wonder what the Astros did against Charlie Morton... He has a ridiculous amount of break to his curve.

by gfs 7y ago

rwmurrayVT 7y ago

To throw a mix of pitches and get zero missed swings on one of the biggest movement pitches in the league... is extremely unlikely. It's not like he was having an off day. His pitches were on point the entire time. It's not like his breaking balls weren't breaking like normal or anything else. It's hilarious to think he was tipping the pitches.

kodablah 7y ago

Darvish too was a swing-and-miss pitcher (albeit admittedly wild) who was openly mocked by Astros players. He struggled mightily during the series. Granted he had been trending downward which continued after the series.

snarf21 7y ago
But confidence is its own downward spiral.
goatherders 7y ago
He was mocked by one player and it had nothing to do with his pitching.
adams_at 7y ago
I'm the Astros fan who created http://signstealingscandal.com http://signstealingscandal.com, so I'm definitely not saying they didn't cheat. They cheated in the regular season (I documented over 1,100 bangs). And I'm almost certain the Astros were cheating during the 2017 World Series. An interesting point though, in Darvish's 2 World Series starts (1 away, 1 at home), he threw 3.1 innings and gave up 8 earned runs (4 in each game). The other Dodgers pitchers threw 13.2 innings in those games and gave up 0 earned runs. I think it's possible the Astros were stealing signs and Darvish was tipping pitches.

remarkEon 7y ago

That is incredible - I didn't know that. I remember watching him get absolutely lit up that series and thinking it was a little odd. But not that odd. Somewhat related, but Bolsinger is now suing the Astros over this, arguing that that really nasty outing he had against them blew up his career. No idea how solid of a case this is, and I know less than nothing about "sports law", but it's an interesting inflection point in the fallout from all this. https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/10/mike-bolsinger-lawsuit-astros-cheating-ruined-career https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/10/mike-bolsinger-lawsuit-ast...

truantbuick 7y ago

The Astros hid behind the guise that they were outstanding at picking up "tipping" from opposing pitchers. i.e. The smallest difference in a pitcher's delivery, imperceptible to you or I, would indicate what kind of pitch was coming. Writers often talked about how Alex Cora or Carlos Beltran or Jose Altuve were just remarkable "students of the game" and would figure it out and tell the rest of the lineup who would pounce upon it. It's kinda funny to look back on, because I remember lots of people producing videos where they would supposedly point out what the Astros were picking up on, and it never seemed very clear to me no matter how much they slowed down the footage. Another thing to note is that there's always fun baseball stats coming out. Kershaw getting no misses on his breaking balls would just be one of several interesting tidbits talked about the next day. It wouldn't really cause suspicion, as most people would just assume it indicates Kershaw was ineffective. For example, in the the 2017 ALCS, Astros pitcher Lance McCullers finished off the feared Yankees lineup by throwing 24 straight curveballs. This is no suggestion that Lance McCullers cheated; it's just an example that there's always odd stuff to reflect upon the next day.

gfs 7y ago
You're right, baseball has a statistic for everything so it's not always going to be caught. I forgot about that McCullers game. His curve was on another level that day!
- LeifCarrotson 7y ago
  A statistic for everything, but little statistical or scientific literacy: so much data dredging goes on. When someone floats a number like "51 breaking balls with zero missed swings" or "24 straight curveballs" it's never presented with the rate at which this would be expected to occur in the pseudorandom/typical case. There are close to a million pitches thrown in each season. If someone flipped a coin for every pitch in the 2000s, they would probably get a string of 24 head and a string of 24 tails. Given the number of pitches that have been thrown, and the human tendency to stick with what's working, the only reason that there wouldn't be 24 of one pitch thrown in a row is that they'd deliberately change it up.

adams_at 7y ago

That's actually not true. There was one swing and miss. Tom Verducci said so himself in his SI article the day before he went on MLB Network and said there was zero (https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/20/astros-cheating-scandal-clayton-kershaw https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/02/20/astros-cheating-scandal-cl...). The Statcast data show one, too. I have no idea why Tom Verducci changed from one to zero. It really doesn't change his point if it's one or zero.

fredsanford 7y ago

This makes me wonder what the Astros did against Charlie Morton... He has a ridiculous amount of break to his curve.