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> the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now, The EV question is going to occur the moment consumer sentiment turns
by vardump 7y ago
> the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now,
The EV question is going to occur the moment consumer sentiment turns into considering ICE vehicles a risky purchase. Like for fear of resale value or high fossil fuel taxes.
Or simply because equivalent EV purchase price becomes lower than ICE vehicle.
Societal tipping point can occur long before EVs become dominant. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll occur before 2025. Eventually, people will be worried about availability of gas stations.
- anotherman554 7y agoWhat percent of people who don't own garages or driveways are willing to buy electric cars?
- natch 7y agoHowever many are not ignorant. In our apartment building, 50% are Teslas. No charging on site. But it takes time for people to learn the options available to them. Options which only increase as time goes by.
- Barrin92 7y agoCurrent prediction is that by 2040 EV will be about 20% of the global market share while total number of cars will go from about 1 billion now to 2 billion then. So there's plenty of room to grow for conventional engines. Mind you the large car manufacturers don't make the lion share of their income in Norway or Sweden where environmentally conscious wealthy people buy Teslas. The lions share of the future car market is the developing world.
- natch 7y agoOne word for the people making these conservative predictions: Test drive. OK, two words.